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| April 24, 2002 | atimes.com | ||
  
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Iraq's oil cutoff will hurt poor nations first Iraq's suspension of oil exports to protest Israeli military actions against Palestine, despite coming at the same time as a drastic reduction in Venezuela's oil exports, is unlikely to have any serious effect on the West, analysts say. Struggling economies such as Thailand and Brazil are much more likely to feel the pain. (Apr 9) Full text THE ROVING EYE IRAQ DIARY, Part 5: What is terrorism? The more than 50 members of the Organization of the Islamic Conference have been unable to come up with a definition of terrorism. In light of the current Israeli and United States policy, though, students in Baghdad are quite clear on what terrorism is not - the Palestinian struggle led by Yasser Arafat. Pepe Escobar reports. (Apr 5) Full text Afghanistan evokes Vietnam 'victory' memories Just as the United States claimed what turned out to be a hollow victory after the Viet Cong's "Tet" offensive in 1968, the proclamation of victory six months into the war on terrorism in Afghanistan by the world's sole superpower remains debatable. In fact, it's becoming clear the war is expanding into Pakistan as well. (Apr 4) Full text
India signs on as Southeast Asia watchdog India is poised to join the United States in naval patrols on the vital sea lanes of the Straits of Malacca, where ships face increasing threats from terror groups. Sudha Ramachandran writes that the development represents a new high in cooperation between Washington and New Delhi and also signals India's emergence as a key player in the region. (Apr 4) Full text COMMENTARY The new protracted conflict Just as the Cold War was a long affair, today's war on terrorism will also be a drawn-out battle that only ends when one side completely vanquishes the other, writes Robert Strausz-Hupe, author of the popular book Protracted Conflict. (Apr 3) Full text REFLECTIONS ON ISLAM Part 1: Time to take stock With Muslim nations - and Islam itself - under the threat of attack in the latest twist in the war on terrorism, Sultan Shahin, in the first part of a three-part report, writes that it is time for Muslims to become introspective and take stock of their present position in the grand scheme of things. (Apr 2) Full text Pakistani roundup 'no threat to al-Qaeda' It is unclear whether senior al-Qaeda official Abu Zobaida is among a group of people rounded up in Pakistan recently. But even if he is, writes Syed Saleem Shahzad, his arrest is unlikely to have much effect on the overall operations of al-Qaeda, and its goal of striking against US interests worldwide. (Apr 1) Full text Uncle Sam's Philippine mission a mystery At the US Army's seaside 103rd Brigade headquarters on Basilan island, it's not exactly Operation Anaconda. The big hype recently was a beauty pageant, while kids skip school to sell ice cream to GIs who spend their days getting text messages on their mobiles from female admirers. Christopher Johnson writes that among the hammocks and coconut groves, US special forces complain about sitting on their butts instead of kicking those of others, begging the question of what Uncle Sam is really up to. (Mar 29) Full text THE ROVING EYE IRAQ DIARY, Part 2: The vanishing middle class Devastated by the Gulf War and the subsequent embargo on trade, Iraq is an economic basket case, with nearly half the population out of work, inflation running wild and the currency almost worthless. Yet people make do, somehow, Pepe Escobar discovers as he strolls around the streets and bazaars of Baghdad. (Mar 29) Full text THE ROVING EYE IRAQ DIARY, Part 1: Baghdad glued to Beirut Although it is in effect a country at war, the popular mood in Iraq is one of defiance, writes Pepe Escobar. And the country's leaders are not sitting idly waiting for a possible United States attack, although their fate most likely lies in the hands of others. (Mar 27) Full text Camus jockeys to lick Taliban The Allies are to deploy their ultimate weapon of mass despondency in Afghanistan. Nausea, angst, and passive smoking are among the horrors that await Taliban zealots. (Mar 26) Full text Checks on the American eagle US Vice President Dick Cheney's recent swing through the Middle East to win support for an attack on Iraq was a failure in terms of getting any concrete pledges. Ahmad Faruqui writes, however, that the exercise may have helped Washington come to terms with the fact that although the American eagle spans the globe like a colossus, there are limits to its powers. Which would be a success of sorts. (Mar 25) Full text The not-so-easy choices the US faces The ability of the United States to choose between diplomacy and military options will speak volumes about whether it will continue to use its power to create international consensus, and thus remain a global moral force, or become a mere bully, writes Ehsan Ahrari. (Mar 25) Full text UN documents wave of anti-Muslim reactions A report drawn up by a UN special rapporteur documents hundreds of incidents of racism, discrimination, xenophobia and other forms of intolerance against Muslims in the post-September 11 world. Anti-Semitism appears to be on the rise as well. (Mar 25) Full text Washington's targeting of Arabs, Muslims assailed After acknowledging that interviews with a first batch of 5,000 Muslims yielded only a few arrests for immigration violations, Washington has announced a new round of interrogations of some 3,000 foreigners. Critics say it is part of a racial profiling of Arabs and Muslims that has swept the United States since September 11. (Mar 25) Full text Taliban take the battle to the south Following on the tactics the Taliban and al-Qaeda used in eastern Afghanistan, engaging and then fleeing from US and allied forces, a new front is expected to be opened soon in the south of the country around Kandahar. But this time, the US is unlikely to find much local support, writes Syed Saleem Shahzad. (Mar 22) Full text Operation Anaconda: Win-win, lose-lose The US declared its largest-ever military engagement on the ground in Afghanistan a success and handed out medals for bravery. But within the past month there has been a "hat trick of terror" as sensitive targets have been attacked, while the Taliban/al-Qaeda forces appear no closer to defeat. Thus, more second thoughts are bound to emerge as to the direction of both the Afghan War and the war on terrorism. (Mar 21) Full text US risking 'imperial overstretch' again George W Bush has vowed to help governments everywhere to fight terrorism. It's more than mere words; Washington has promised or provided new military aid to dozens of countries, only a few of which face a credible external threat, and some of which are waging their "wars on terror" to questionable ends. Some now worry that Bush's war has too many fronts. (Mar 20) Full text Afghan peacekeeping force to be bolstered The United Nations says that it is imperative that its Kabul-based International Security Assistance Force be expanded to about 30,000 troops from its current 5,000 and its mandate extended past June. Nine more countries have agreed to contribute personnel, but the total military strength is still expected to fall far short of the target. (Mar 20) Full text Saddam's Kurdish enemies oppose US attack The Kurds of northern Iraq are no friends of Saddam Hussein, who 14 years ago ordered a chemical attack that killed or injured thousands of them. But Kurdish leaders are adamant that foreigners - especially the saber-rattling Americans, for whom they say Iraqi affairs are a mere "game" - should stay out of the picture. (Mar 19) Full text Bush's policy shifts threaten Asian stability Only last month, US President George W Bush was in Northeast Asia to consult with the leaders of Japan, South Korea and China. Since then, the issues of nuclear-weapons use and a possible war with Iraq have made these same leaders very nervous about a unilateralist US foreign policy that could plunge the region into crisis. (Mar 18) Full text
The unimagined consequences of ousting Saddam As Washington considers a military push to topple Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq, questions about possible repercussions linger. What is likely to happen in the event of a US strike against Iraq, writes Ehsan Ahrari, is chaos of unimagined proportions in neighboring areas. (Mar 15) Full text Iranian unrest plays into US hands Although Iran bears the dubious distinction of being a part of Washington's axis of evil, it could, should its hardliners become marginalized, play a part in the US going after Iraq. And the way events in Iran are unfolding, writes Syed Saleem Shahzad, Washington could be in for some good news. (Mar 15) Full text US lowers nuclear barriers Despite its protestations to the contrary, Washington has lowered the threshold in determining its potential nuclear targets. The danger is, writes Ehsan Ahrari, that other nuclear powers might now be tempted toward the use of nuclear weapons as a retaliatory response, rather than as a last resort. (Mar 14) Full text Afghanistan: Who's calling whose bluff? The expediency, not to mention duplicity, of local commanders is making it very difficult for the United States and its allies to fully impose themselves on the ground in Afghanistan. The problem runs deeper, though, writes Syed Saleem Shahzad, as even leading political figures are now playing a double game. (Mar 13) Full text THE ROVING EYE Washington and Tony vs the united state of Iraq As US Vice President Dick Cheney rallies the UK's Tony Blair to Washington's anti-Iraq crusade, a top Iraqi diplomat says his nation will rally behind Saddam Hussein if attacked: the country has found strength in its adversity. Pepe Escobar examines the reasons for the hatred that is leading to full-scale confrontation. (Mar 13) Full text The war against dissent The "Vietnam syndrome" stung Washington into backing away from a foreign policy that had tended to support repressive regimes, but George W Bush's free-wheeling war on terror has brought interventionist policy back with a vengeance, writes Tom Barry of Foreign Policy in Focus. Meanwhile, reports Jim Lobe, a group of influential neo-conservative figures has launched a campaign to discredit any opposition to Bush's campaign. (Mar 13) A war waged with missiles of misinformation The United States - and its enemies - have recognized the importance of mastering the mass media in an increasingly globalized information age. However, with the attempted creation of a bureau bent on propagating deliberately misleading information, writes Ehsan Ahrari, the US may be allowing its zealotry in the fight against terror to get out of proportion. (Mar 12) Full text Fallout fierce over Washington's new nuke policy China is "deeply shocked", and Washington has produced "one more turn of the paranoia wheel in North Korea". The Pentagon's new contingency plan for using nuclear weapons is certain to heighten international tensions and fuel concerns about the unilateralist aims of the Bush administration. (Mar 12) Full text THE ROVING EYE Nuke them all Six months after September 11, the Masters of War just can't get enough, writes Pepe Escobar. According to a classified report, the Bush administration has told the Pentagon to plan the use of nuclear weapons - "on a contingency basis" - against at least seven countries: China, Russia, North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Libya and Syria. Gore Vidal's "Enemy of the Month Club" is growing. (Mar 11) Full text Taliban find unlikely allies As the visit of former Afghan monarch Zahir Shah to Kabul on March 21 draws near, it is becoming increasingly obvious to former Northern Alliance leaders that they are losing the battle for popular support in the country. The result, writes Syed Saleem Shahzad, is that the Taliban could find new allies in their fight against US forces. (Mar 11) Full text HEY, JOE Estrada makes a bold move Joseph Estrada, the incarcerated former leader of the Philippines, has gone on the offense by dismissing his entire team of defense lawyers in the midst of his trial for plunder. Ted Lerner describes the ploy as a daring gambit, and in an exclusive Asia Times Online interview, talks with one of Estrada's former lawyers, now his spokesman. (Mar 11) Full text Axis schmaxis George W Bush's insistence that America's "war on terrorism" is not a war against Islam is less than credible after his inclusion of Iran in his incendiary "axis of evil". Bush, writes Ehsan Ahrari, must learn the hard lesson that a US president cannot indulge in glib phrasemaking without causing problems for America's strategic interests. In the second of these two articles, Jim Lobe looks into the future of the (ex-) White House speechwriter who coined the phrase, and his new employer, the powerful, neo-conservative American Enterprise Institute. (Mar 11) THE ROVING EYE Make war, not politics Ongoing meetings between Iraqi and United Nations officials could mean a peaceful solution to the problem of one-third of George W Bush's axis of evil - except this would be terrible news for the hawks in the Pentagon and, even more so, writes Pepe Escobar, the profits of US weapons manufacturers. (Mar 8) Full text US seen at risk of repeating Cold War mistakes A new report notes striking similarities between Washington's war on terrorism - and the people behind it - with the Cold War fight against communism. It describes support for repressive governments the US enlists in its efforts as "tunnel vision". (Mar 8) Full text Picking and choosing over Afghan army Meetings are well under way in Kabul to discuss the structure of a multi-ethnic Afghan army. However, many warlords are concerned that only those elements who were loyal to the former communist regime or to the liberal administration of former monarch Zahir Shah will be eligible, writes Syed Saleem Shahzad. (Mar 8) Full text THE ROVING EYE In the Anaconda's grip Operation Anaconda is growing in intensity by the day, with thousands of US-led troops now committed to the mountains of Paktia province in eastern Afghanistan to confront Taliban and al-Qaeda forces. Pepe Escobar writes that while smokescreens abound - both literally and figuratively - one thing is clear: the fighting will not be over quickly. (Mar 7) Full text Asia: Low-hanging fruit in the clash of civilizations  Asia is caught between two powerful forces. On the one hand is the rejection of globalization and a push down the path of ethnic-religious conflict, and on the other is the quest by the United States to create a new world order based on the war on terrorism. Depending on how they react to these forces, Asian countries risk becoming easy targets - the low-hanging fruit - in the US campaign. (Mar 7)Full text
The Taliban have made the Gardez region in eastern Paktia province their new stronghold in Afghanistan, from where they will orchestrate a guerrilla war. Syed Saleem Shahzad explains the tribal ties that make this location a logical choice, and which also ensure that the administration of Hamid Karzai in Kabul will never be fully accepted in the country. (Mar 6) Full text A whole new war game in Afghanistan The focus of fighting in Afghanistan over the past few days has been to the east of the country, where large numbers of Taliban and al-Qaeda forces are dug into the mountains. Syed Saleem Shahzad writes that soon pockets of resistance will mushroom across the country. The war has only just begun. (Mar 5) Full text THE ROVING EYE Bush vs Saddam: The empire strikes back The United States has a two-pronged strategy toward Iraq. The first part, the diplomatic approach, is already in place, but it is doomed to failure. The road in this case will open to the much-preferred military solution. But it is here that the real problems arise, writes Pepe Escobar, not least of all that Saddam Hussein is not just sitting and waiting to be on the receiving end of American wrath. (Mar 5) Full text COMMENT US can't afford to go it alone against Iraq Unilateral United States action against Iraq will impair US national interests by creating diplomatic friction with its European, Asian and Arab allies. It is also likely to play into the hands of extremist elements in Muslim and Arab countries. Rather, Washington should work through the United Nations in resolving the threats posed by Saddam Hussein. (Mar 5) Full text The message is clear: The Taliban are back Secret night messages, last used to rally opposition to the invading Soviets, are once again circulating in Afghanistan, this time urging support for an imminent Taliban guerrilla offensive. Heavy fighting in the east of the country clearly indicates that the messages should be taken very seriously, writes Syed Saleem Shahzad. (Mar 4) Full text THE ROVING EYE An Afghan in Paris "Everything's fine - help!" is the message being conveyed by Afghanistan's interim leader Hamid Karzai as he trots the globe. After visiting India, Pakistan and Iran, Karzai bumped into Pepe Escobar in Paris last week and assured him that there was no ethnic strife in his country. (Mar 4) Full text One, two, many Afghanistans "If we expect to kill every terrorist in the world, that's going to keep us going beyond doomsday," exclaimed US Senator Robert Byrd during testimony by the arch-interventionist Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz last week. That is precisely what the US seems to be attempting as it expands its military commitments overseas at breakneck pace. (Mar 4) Full text THE ROVING EYE The power of lies The ham-handed efforts of the United States to spread disinformation have upset friend and foe alike. Pepe Escobar writes that Washington could learn a thing or two from the Israelis, who are much more adept at molding perceptions to suit their needs. (Mar 1) Full text Karzai negotiates diplomatic minefield Interim Afghan Prime Minister Hamid Karzai's swing through Pakistan, Iran and India this week had the potential to turn into a debacle, given the widely conflicting interests of the host countries. The premier managed to extract something from each nation, though, which is a start at least for battered Afghanistan, writes Sudha Ramachandran. (Mar 1) Full text Who are the terrorists, George? Convicted terrorists one day, revered heroes the next. History, with the luxury of hindsight, has a strange way of reinterpreting the deeds of man. This is a lesson that the United States, in its unquestioning righteousness, would do well to heed, writes Marc Erikson. (Feb 28) Full text THE ROVING EYE Strategies of encirclement The debate is practically the same in Washington and Jerusalem: how to benefit from the shock of war to do what was previously unthinkable. For example, writes Pepe Escobar, to change the regime not only in Iraq but also in Iran. (Feb 28) Full text COMMENTARY The imaginary 'axis of evil' The institutionalization of this unpleasant phrase has already caused considerable dissent among Washington's allies. Ehsan Ahrari writes that the fact the "axis" has no basis in reality raises the question of whether the United States is establishing a framework for conducting its global "war on terrorism" for the rest of this decade. (Feb 27) Full text Alienation cuts both ways Dozens of publications and statements issued since September 11 have led many in the Arab world to conclude that Western hostility to Muslims is now bare-faced and on the increase. "The real question is not who hates whom. It is in fact why the West hates us so much," says an Arab-language journalist. (Feb 27) Full text UN says the need is now for new Afghan army The United Nations is pushing for the early creation of a new national army in war-devastated Afghanistan. The appeal for the process to be accelerated comes against the backdrop of a resurgence in factional and tribal fighting in the virtually lawless country that threatens to destabilize the Interim Administration. (Feb 27) Full text Pearl a victim of Pakistan's grim legacy The murder of United States journalist Daniel Pearl at the hands of Pakistani militants starkly illustrates the hotbed of extremism spawned largely by the country's powerful Inter-Services Intelligence, writes Syed Saleem Shahzad, even though tough measures have been taken to stamp out rogue elements within the organization. (Feb 25) Full text After the fireworks, who picks up the pieces? Shifting the battleground on the war against terrorism from Afghanistan entails many perils for the US administration. But the consequences of bringing down longtime Bush nemesis President Saddam Hussein of Iraq, or altering the political landscape in the Philippines, hardly seem to concern President George W Bush's closest advisers. (Feb 25) Full text In the Philippines, an enemy with three faces As United States soldiers officially deploy to Basilan island in the Philippines this week, local soldiers, hostages and tribal leaders explain why the Abu Sayyaf are so tough to beat, reports Christopher Johnson. (Feb 21) Full text COMMENTARY America's crumbling coalition Increasing nervousness in Europe about the United States' moves to expand its war on terrorism against an ill-conceived "axis of evil", and worldwide concern about Washington's apparently made-in-Israel foreign policy, may be a prelude to a major split in the broad coalition formed after September 11. (Feb 20) Full text Pentagon ponders disinformation campaign The New York Times has reported that the Pentagon plans a new propaganda campaign that might include disinformation to persuade public opinion overseas to back Washington's war on terrorism - and possibly moves to expand the war to Iraq. The story was obviously leaked by officials within the Pentagon who oppose the disinformation plan. (Feb 20) Full text Warlords stake their future on anarchy With supporters of exiled Afghan monarch Zahir Shah increasingly emerging as the only viable political majority, embattled warlords are plotting to join hands to once again drag the country into anarchy, writes Syed Saleem Shahazad. (Feb 19) Full text COMMENTARY Bush is still a neophyte As US President George W Bush makes his first-ever visits to Japan and South Korea and his third to China, Tim Shorrock writes that it is easy to forget that this popular wartime president is still a foreign policy neophyte who faces serious challenges in Asia that his war against terrorism has done nothing to resolve. (Feb 18) Full text Bush takes his war to East Asia President George W Bush's State of the Union address made it clear that the US "war on terror" is coming to East Asia. As the smoke clears from Afghanistan and on the eve his upcoming trip to Japan, South Korea and China, two policy options for the US in East Asia are becoming apparent, and so far Bush appears to be picking the wrong one, writes James Reilly for Foreign Policy in Focus. (Feb 15) Full text EDITORIAL Philippines: Dirty war, stupid targets An advance party of US special forces is due to arrive on the Philippines island of Basilan in the start of a new chapter in Washington's campaign against terrorism. In their sights is a rag-tag, kidnap-for-ransom group of bandits who are really nothing more than a stupid, if symbolic and convenient target. Ignoring the real problem - for purely political reasons - is no way to fight a war. (Feb 15) Full text Pearl kidnap catch could turn to ashes It's just another strange turn in the Daniel Pearl kidap saga. The man who has confessed in court to the abduction, and who now says that Pearl is probably dead, is likely to turn out to be a minor player. Syed Saleem Shahzad reports. (Feb 14) Full text Pakistan's payback; what payback? In the face of strong domestic opposition, Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf achieved a task many thought he was not up to: marching in step with the United States in its war on terrorism. Now in Washington and expecting substantial payback, he instead received a huge surprise. Nadeem Malik writes that Pakistanis will not be at all happy with what they perceive as only a limited return for their strategic shift in the region. (Feb 14) Full text Iran unites against American presence George W Bush's accusations and threats against Iran, and lumping it, along with Iraq and North Korea, into an "axis of evil", have had the effect of uniting the Iranian nation behind a common cause: to rid the region of the American presence. Moderate, reformist President Seyed Mohammad Khatami has put aside his differences with hardline Muslim clerics to lead the country in expressing its anger. Syed Saleem Shahzad reports. (Feb 13) Full text Delhi lays down the welcome mat for Washington Confirmation of the blossoming romance between India and the United States, especially with regards to the heightened American presence in Central Asia, has raised eyebrows in Moscow, Beijing and Tehran. Ties between the world's two largest democracies have never been cozier, but Sudha Ramachandran writes that India had best beware. (Feb 13) Full text Middle East's resistance to Bush's terrorism war grows The Arab world is increasingly and stridently rejecting Washington's ground rules for its war on terrorism. A recent news report that Osama bid Laden's al-Qaeda is shifting its base of operations from Afghanistan to Lebanon has been dismissed by Lebanon's prime minister as "pure lies", and George W Bush's labeling of radical Islamic groups such as the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas and Lebanon's Hezbollah as terrorists is dismissed out of hand. (Feb 13) Full text COMMENTARY The war and the West Major adjustments, even a redefinition of American society, will likely be required to provide the US and Western civilization with an effective long-range defense against Islamic terrorism. Already, the "enlightened" Western attitude toward immigrants is no longer tenable, argues the Foreign Policy Research Institute's James Kurth. (Feb 12) Full text Mission Hegemony, outlook uncertain Five months after September 11, US President George W Bush appears more determined than ever to forge a new world order based on unrivaled US military power. No surprise there - 10 years ago the strategy was already central to the thinking of people who today are prominent in the Bush administration. But a growing number of critics, in the US and abroad, are concerned that the White House has failed to think through the implications. (Feb 12) Full text Major changes in the air The September 11 terrorist attacks in the United States were the last straw for an already struggling global airline industry. Alexander Casella writes that the "fear factor" that immediately followed the attacks is now overshadowed by a far more pervasive phenomenon: a worldwide crisis from which very few airlines will emerge unscathed. (Feb 12) Full text Iran acts against anti-US Afghan fighters As die-hard guerrillas prepare to attack foreign troops in Afghanistan as soonas the snow melts, sudden Iranian action against a leading anti-US group andits firebrand leader has dealt a blow to plans for resistance. However, writesSyed Saleem Shahzad, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar remains a force to be reckoned with. (Feb 11) Full text Afghanistan, Pakistan renew ties as US allies Afghan interim head Hamid Karzai's trip to Pakistan opened a new chapter in ties between the two countries, both having become pivotal allies to the US in its "war against terrorism". This new cordial rapport is being erected on an edifice that is propped up by the US presence in the region - a presence that is raising regional concerns. (Feb 11) Full text PYONGYANG WATCH Why Bush is scarier than Kim Jong-il Axis of evil? The rhetoric may play well in Texas, but in Korea it raises real risk. Aidan Foster-Carter can't quite believe what he heard from the State of the Union address, and hopes that George W Bush wises up before starting a war that could kill 1 million people. (Feb 8) Full text Region uneasy about US troops in the Philippines Cries of "Yankee go home" are being heard on the streets of Manila again, this time over the deployment of US troops to assist government forces in the battle against Abu Sayyaf, which may have links to al-Qaeda, or may be just a bandit gang. Not only are some Filipinos upset, but the country's neighbors are worried about Washington's real agenda, and the long-term implications of a bigger US military presence in the region. (Feb 8) Full text Alarm bells over US overseas military spending The largest increase in US defense spending since 1966, proposed to Congress by President George W Bush earlier this week, includes hundreds of million dollars for training programs and joint exercises with foreign militaries. These deployments worry those who recall the counter-insurgency era when US forces were identified with abusive militaries. (Feb 8) Full text In Spy vs Spy game, India wins hands down India and Pakistan used to be evenly matched in their secret services' proxy war, but September 11 changed all that. From the attack on the New Delhi parliament to the Daniel Pearl kidnapping case, a combined onslaught by India's intelligence and diplomatic machine has been met by ill-considered and uncoordinated Pakistani maneuvers. Islamabad's intelligence chiefs have been cornered, writes Syed Saleem Shahzad. (Feb 7) Full text UN defies Bush's characterization of Iran Despite what Washington might think, the United Nations believes Iran is a key player in sustaining peace and stability in the new Afghanistan. Secretary General Kofi Annan said working with Tehran will be a "major pillar of UN strategy" in confronting the challenge of rebuilding the war-torn country. (Feb 7) Full text
As some power bases weaken and others grow stronger, and as geopolitical "black holes" of instability threaten the infrastructure of Eurasia, the United States must maintain a clear policy in the region, writes Francesco Sisci in the conclusion of a two-part article. It is the only way to win its war on terrorism in the long term. (Feb 7) Full text
Russia has dismissed George W Bush's "axis of evil" claims, and appears tobe looking to strengthen its old Asian alliances, notably with India and"evil" Iran, to counterbalance United States clout in Central Asia. SergeiBlagov reports. (Feb 6) Full text Iran, North Korea cry foul Tehran and Pyongyang have struck back at US President George W Bush, who in his State of the Union address last week included them in an "axis of evil". Such language, Iran told the United Nations, is "a profanity", while North Korea called Bush's speech a threat to peace. (Feb 6) Full text
Power, counter-power, Part 2: The fractal war The Afghan War is intimately linked to the power and counter-power strugglerepresented these past few days by the World Economic Forum in New York and theWorld Social Forum in Porto Alegre. The war is part of a truly global warbecause it involves globalization itself. Pepe Escobar argues that ifNew York defeats Porto Alegre, the whole world will be at war with itself -just as Sao Paulo is today. (Feb 6) Full text
The war in Afghanistan has given the United States a new presence in Asia, and the great Eurasian powers of China, India and Russia must accommodate it one way or another, writes Francesco Sisci in the first part of a two-part article. Strengthened bilateral ties within the region will be a start down the road to Eurasian stability. But there remain black holes all over the continent that could unravel everything. (Feb 6) Full text The bin Laden and al-Qaeda of Southeast Asia An extensive and organized al-Qaeda-linked Islamic terror network has existed in Southeast Asia for an extended period of time and is far from being uprooted. The militant cleric at its center continues to live happily in Java. Marc Erikson details the background and goals of Jemaah Islamiah, and the evidence against its leader, Abu Bakar Ba'asyir. (Feb 5) Full text Pakistan shifts proxy war to India's east The Indian government is waking up to the fact that it faces a growingthreat in its east and northeast from Pakistan-sponsored insurgency. SultanShahin details the activities of Pakistan's ISI intelligence agency inBangladesh, whence men, arms and funds flow across the porous border to bolsterthe many Indian separatist groups. (Feb 5) Full text Economic threat may push Pakistan to use nukes Pakistan has laid down scenarios under which it may use nuclear weapons as a last resort. These include having its survival threatened by India, not only militarily but economically, or when access to shared water resources is blocked, says a new report by nuclear physicists who visited the country recently. (Feb 5) Full text Tokyo forced to keep Okinawa on the back burner For Okinawans, the presence of 27,000 US marines in their midst continues to be a festering sore. Not that Tokyo seems to care, however. It has much bigger fish to fry, both domestically and in conjunction with the US-led global war on terror, writes Axel Berkofsky. (Feb 5) Full text Afghanistan proceeds to tear itself apart The inevitable infighting among Afghan warlords has broken out and is likely to engulf the entire country. The interim president is pleading for international forces to be sent to all provinces to disarm the warring factions, but his pleas are falling on deaf ears. Syed Saleem Shahzad writes that the Taliban may be poised to exploit the chaos. (Feb 4) Full text Pakistan in a twist over war of lists The ongoing verbal exchange between India and Pakistan over what is described as the "war of lists" is taking increasingly bizarre turns as Islamabad tries to sidestep the issue of handing over terrorists and criminals wanted by New Delhi. To India, writes Sudha Ramachandran, Pakistan's reluctance proves that its announced intention of renouncing terrorism is not sincere. (Feb 4) Full text US's double standards on terrorism in South Asia When India's parliament was attacked, New Delhi assumed it would be able to operate under rules of retaliation to terrorism similar to those that the United States is using in response to the September 11 attacks. But it quickly became clear that the use of military force was an option that Washington reserved for itself. Ehsan Ahrari writes that India's mounting frustrations are not easily dismissed as mere self-promoting rhetoric. (Feb 4) Full text The Bush administration: Power to the hawks September 11 has changed a lot of things. Not the least of these has been the considerably heightened influence accorded to some of the most hawkish members of the Bush administration. Thanks to Bush's State of the Union address - where Iran, North Korea, and Iraq were described as an "axis of evil" - the US appears to be not only preparing the ground for a more expanded war on terror, but also making moderate Secretary of State Colin Powell look ever more irrelevant. (Feb 4) Full text In war against terror, new axis emerges The US spent years painstakingly cobbling together rapprochements with Iran and North Korea. So why has it expanded its war on terrorism? Part of the answer lies in the expected deployment of a missile defense system, and in strategic interests that will benefit America should tensions escalate further. And as US President George W Bush's rhetoric grows increasingly heated, a new axis of power may be appearing between the US, Israel, and India. (Feb 4) Full text Indian skeptics point to 200-acre terror base India remains unimpressed by Pakistan's move to crack down on militant groups. Is New Delhi's stance justified, or is it just being difficult? The skeptics, writes Sudha Ramachandran, need only point to banned group Lashkar-e-Toiba being allowed to maintain its 200-acre base near Lahore. (Feb 1) Full text The clashing perspectives of Iran and the US Under the ayatollahs, Iran is high on the list of America's enemies. The only realistic basis for rapprochement from the US viewpoint is for Iran to foreswear missile and nuclear technologies, a highly unrealistic scenario from the Iranian perspective. As long as these two clashing perspectives remained unresolved, the two countries will remain far apart, to say the least, writes Ehsan Ahrari. (Jan 31) Full text Daniel Pearl kidnapping plot thickens Pakistani intelligence agents have told Syed Saleem Shahzad that the kidnapping of the Wall Street Journal's Daniel Pearl is a lot more complicated than it appears, and they have concluded that India is involved. India's motive? To persuade the US that al-Qaeda is active in Pakistan, which would lead to the unraveling of the Pakistani secret underworld and its links in India. True or not, Pakistan's secret groups and agencies are in for a hard time in coming days. (Jan 31) Full text In Afghanistan, Pakistan's loss is India's gain Kabul's choice of New Delhi as the first destination for Afghanistan's national airline signals the interim administration's desire to reach out to India. And India, reports Sudha Ramachandran, is responding in kind, moving into Pakistan's former turf with humanitarian aid, Bollywood films, and a burning desire to do business. (Jan 31) Full text Saudi Arabia and the US: A parting of the ways? Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Abdullah is focused on enhancing the stability of Saudi rule, and perceives the withdrawal of US forces as a major step in that direction. So, the apparent parting of the ways between Washington and Riyadh may turn out to be an important tactical maneuver aimed at pacifying hardlineIslamist opposition in Saudi Arabia. If the Bush administration reads it as such and reacts graciously, writes Ehsan Ahrari, the old friendship will survive. (Jan 30) Full text India sharpens nuclear claws Roughly a million of India's and Pakistan's soldiers confront one another at the border, the biggest ever military buildup in the two rivals' history. Amid the tension comes the test-flying of a new, improved Indian missile and a war of words over nuclear weapons that belies the fond hope that such weapons would instill sobriety and responsibility in Indian and Pakistani leaders. (Jan 30) Full text US military seeks deeper roots in Pakistan The United States is actively sounding out Pakistan on the possibility of the country being used as a staging ground for a long-term US military presence in the region. The idea does not sit too well with some sections in Pakistan, writes Nadeem Malik, but the carrots being dangled might just prove enough of an inducement. (Jan 29) Full text ... And US spies set up shop too With Islamabad's blessing, United States intelligence agents are slowly extending their influence within Pakistan, gaining access to hitherto off-limits sources of information. This trend, writes Syed Saleem Shahzad, is likely to be reflected in the international arena, with Pakistan moving further into the US sphere. (Jan 29) Full text DIRE STRAITS Terrorists under the bed United States troops in the Philippines are physical proof that the war on terror has spread to Southeast Asia. What is less easy to quantify is the exact extent of terror organizations across the region, which is largely due, writes Anil Netto, to the secretive manner in which governments are treating suspects. (Jan 29) Full text
As in the past, the Sri Lankan government's ban on the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam remains the key stumbling block to the resumption of peace talks. Sudha Ramachandran argues that given the present environment of conciliation on both sides, a compromise over the ban would be the best solution. (Jan 29) Full text Tamils feel the heat in Canada Tamils living in Canada are concerned that under new counter-terrorism laws many of them could be forced to return to Sri Lanka. The Canadian government, they say, has failed to distinguish between legitimate political expression and violent terrorist activity. (Jan 29) Full text Arab rhetoric leaves Palestine in the lurch A meeting of the Jerusalem Committee, an Arab and Muslim political structure aimed at financially and politically backing the Palestinians' claims over Jerusalem as the capital of their future independent state, has yielded no tangible action. Observers have decried "the hypocrisy of Arab rulers in dealing with the Palestinian issue". (Jan 29) Full text ANALYSIS Mr Karzai goes to Washington Washington is pulling out the stops for the man who represents victory and US future hopes in Afghanistan. Hamid Karzai, the Taliban backer turned "American stooge", may not be the ideal figure to guide the initial process of the country's reconstruction. However, writes Marc Erikson, not only Washington, but most Afghans will probably agree that there's at present no alternative. (Jan 28) Full text Americans turn their TV view to Somalia Somalia is seen as a potential shelter for Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda members, the main suspects of the September 11 terrorist attacks in the United States. As CNN and Fox News pitch camp in Mogadishu and await the possible bombs, suburban Somalians are fleeing to the countryside for safety. (Jan 28) Full text Bush helps Sharon nail down Oslo's coffin US President George W Bush's administration is clearly hardening against Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, echoing Sharon in blaming Arafat for each new spiral of violence and seemingly oblivious to what appear to be deliberate Israeli provocations, such as targeted assassinations. "If you look at this cycle, it is naive to think it is accidental," says one prominent Israeli. (Jan 28) Full text Syria turns to Iraq in moment of need To the concern of the United States, Syria is stepping up contact with its former foe, Iraq. With the Syrian economy struggling, Iraq is now a valuable export market, despite the constraints of United Nations sanctions imposed on Baghdad. The closer ties also have far-reaching political implications for the region. (Jan 25) Full text US forces Delhi to backpedal The United States refuses to use the word "terror" to describe the gunning down of five Indian policemen outside a US building in Kolkata, saying that the incident was more likely the act of gangsters and nothing to do with Pakistan militants. The attack had the potential of undermining Islamabad's reform drive. But given Washington's position, it is India-US ties that are now being strained, writes Sultan Shahin. (Jan 24) Full text Battle lines drawn in the Philippines Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo's decision to allow the deployment of US troops in the restive south has created a political firestorm, one that her government can ill afford just a year into her troubled presidency. (Jan 23) Full text The great divide Since partition in 1947, Pakistan has evolved in such a way that a faithful Muslim and a loyal Pakistani is measured by how much he or she hates India. Syed Saleem Shahzad traces the roots of this phenomenon, how it has proved a massive stumbling block to relations between Pakistan and India and the cause of the many problems that exist between them, such as Kashmir. (Jan 23) Full text 'All is well that ends with Powell' The merry-go-round of visiting officials between India and the United States continues with the breathlessness of fresh love affairs, illustrating the sea-change in relations between the two countries. Sultan Shahin ponders whether New Delhi might be too love-struck to realize exactly what is going on in the new relationship. (Jan 22) Full text Boost for political process in Kashmir The All-Parties Hurriyet Conference, the umbrella organization for more than 20 political parties in Jammu and Kashmir, has indicated that the militant phase of a struggle for self-determination in Kashmir is over. This new stand of the powerful group is an indication that it might be ready to contest provincial assembly elections in the state due to be held in September. (Jan 22) Full text Uighurs flex their muscles The international war on terrorism has set off the latest cycle of insurgency and repression in the Uighur-China relationship, the first signs of which are the intensification of Beijing's anti-separatist campaign in the Xinjiang-Uighur Autonomous Region. This repression will likely squelch Islamist militancy, but given Beijing's unwillingness to grant the most elementary forms of cultural and religious autonomy, separatist militancy will likely emerge again in Xinjiang. (Jan 22) Full text Beijing links separatists to bin Laden Beijing, in an effort to win international recognition in its struggle with Muslim separatists in China's troubled northwest Xinjiang-Uighur Autonomous Region, has released an extensive report linking one of the separatist groups - the East Turkestan Islamic Movement - directly to Osama bin Laden's terror network. (Jan 22) Full text Iran takes center stage Iran has taken the initiative in rallying support among Muslim and Arab nations to form a common alliance against Israeli actions in the Middle East and against the United States military presence in South and Central Asia. First, though, writes Syed Saleem Shahzad, Iran has to help Pakistan mend fences with countries alienated by Islamabad's cooperation with the US in the war against Afghanistan. (Jan 21) Full text Turkey's support comes at a price Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit is back home from a visit to Washington in which he came away almost empty-handed after hoping for firm financial support for his country's flagging economy. However, since military action against Saddam Hussein's Iraq remains high on the wish list of a number of key US officials, observers have not ruled out the possibility that Turkey could yet secure economic deals on the coat-tails of US strategy. (Jan 21) Full text Afghanistan: Arranging the building blocks Hundreds of millions of dollars in aid were pledged to Afghanistan at the beginning of a two-day conference in Japan on Monday. Richard Hanson writes that in real terms, though, what is needed now is a list of priorities to be drawn up that starts with the country being able to grow food and provide a means for people to have a livelihood. (Jan 21) Full text Pakistan's Kashmir offensive Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf's recent speech has enabled the military regime to use a conducive international environment to off-load domestic political baggage that was a burden in the country's quest for a role in the community of nations. It is in this context that Pakistan has launched a new initiative on Kashmir to reaffirm its long-standing policy of supporting the right of self-determination for the people of Kashmir. (Jan 18) Full text Afghan reconstruction ball starts rolling in Japan On Monday, Japan hosts the most serious diplomatic initiative yet to pony up the money to pay for the damage that war-torn Afghanistan has suffered. More than 60 or so countries and international organizations will be on hand - something of a feat in itself, writes Richard Hanson. (Jan 18) Full text COMMENTARY Sino-Indian relations: A new beginning The India-Pakistan standoff loomed over Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji's visit to India, but he returns to Beijing with good news about progress on relations with Delhi, albeit modest. Much work remains to be done, but Zhu's visit could be a landmark in the move toward closer ties between these two Asian giants, writes Jing-dong Yuan. (Jan 18) Full text Delhi, Beijing tackle the business end of their ties Unlike in its relationship with Pakistan, India is prepared to put aside political differences with China in order to foster closer economic and trade links with Beijing. The potential is vast, writes Sudha Ramachandran, and there could be other positive spinoffs. (Jan 18) Full text Indonesian militants a law unto themselves Despite recent pledges from regional leaders to assist in Indonesia's fight against local terrorists, Indonesia finds itself hamstrung by the Muslim communities on its own shores. Richel Langit explores what it is that keeps Indonesia's numerous militant Muslim groups - some with ties to Al-Qaeda - going strong. (Jan 18) Full text
Russian officials are becoming increasingly wary about the United States' presence in Central Asia, with one general warning Tajikistan that if US troops are deployed on its soil Dushanbe and Moscow "are unlikely to remain friends". Sergei Blagov writes that Russia is especially intent on maintaining its influence in Tajikistan, the only country in the region where Russia still maintains a military presence. (Jan 18) Full text Musharraf: Can this man change Pakistan? It will prove far more difficult to unify Pakistan behind the goals of building a modern economy and secular nation state than with rabble-rousing talk about the liberation of Kashmir and jihad against perennial enemy Hindu-India and the treacherous West. Yet this is exactly the target that President Pervez Musharraf has set himself, writes Uwe Parpart, Editor of Asia Times Online. (Jan 17) Full text
Following close on the heels of the crackdown on militant organizations, Pakistan has revealed broad reforms to be introduced at parliamentary elections scheduled for later this year. The moves are a part of President General Pervez Musharraf's drive to modernize the country, writes Syed Saleem Shahzad, but there are already ominous signs that change will be met with resistance. (Jan 17) Full text Powell plays it both ways Faced with the finest of lines to tread in dealing with Pakistan and India, US Secretary of State Colin Powell has to ensure that his current visit to the subcontinent brings New Delhi and Islamabad closer to the negotiating table rather than farther away from it, writes Sudha Ramachandran. (Jan 17) Full text Watchdog lambastes Washington's 'hypocrisy' "As seen from Washington, violence becomes intolerable based not on whether civilians are attacked but on whose civilians are attacked and who is doing the attacking," according to the New York-based Human Rights Watch. It says that hypocrisy characterized much of US human rights policy during George W Bush's first year as president, particularly in his war against terrorism. (Jan 17) Full text
The consequences of the saber-rattling between India and Pakistan have spread to the more mundane aspects of life, as Pakistanis and Indians alike find their television screens affected. (Jan 17) Full text US takes anti-terror war to the Philippines The US is framing the conflict against Abu Sayyaf insurgents in the southern Philippines as part of the broader war against Al-Qaeda and the "war against terrorism". The danger of the growing US military involvement is that it displaces attention from the much broader struggle for effective development and political self-determination on the part of other Muslim Filipino political groups. Military campaigns, writes John Gershman, will solve little in an area where three-quarters of the population live below the poverty line. (Jan 16) Full text
Although deep differences exist between India and China, the two countries are trying to build on areas of agreement during Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji's six-day visit to India. But, as always, the issue of mutual relations with Pakistan muddies the waters, writes Sudha Ramachandran. (Jan 16) Full text Time to pay up, says Afghanistan A number of countries have pledged millions of dollars in donations to help Afghanistan address immediate needs, such as paying the civil service and police. Unfortunately, none of the money pledged has actually found its way to Afghanistan, prompting a desperate plea from the interim administration there. (Jan 16) Full text THE ROVING EYE We are the (United States') world Under the euro-euphoria, it is possible to detect a subtle movement of tectonic geopolitical plates in Europe. Simple-minded intellects might define it as "anti-Americanism", writes Pepe Escobar. It is in fact a pervasive awareness that the next step of European integration will see the emergence of a counterpower to the New American Order. (Jan 15) Full text Musharraf draws flak from Arab world It is too early to gauge what effect President General Pervez Musharraf's controls on religious schools will have, yet already there are rumblings that some Arab countries are becoming disenchanted with Islamabad's abrupt policy changes, writes Syed Saleem Shahzad. (Jan 15) Full text Pakistan's actions will speak louder than words The withdrawal of legitimacy bestowed so far to terrorism as a tool of state policy in the name of Islam is a historic break from the past for Pakistan. But to really stamp out terrorism, President General Pervez Musharraf will have to translate his words into action, writes Sudha Ramachandran. (Jan 15) Full text Turkey banking on Saddam Turkish leaders remain extremely worried over the possibility of Washington turning on Iraq. In the mid-1980s, Kurdish guerrillas launched an insurgency in southern Turkey and northern Iraq for the creation of a Kurd state, and Ankara fears a Kurdish uprising if Saddam Hussein's regime were to collapse under US strikes. (Jan 15) Full text India in a dilemma Though India is sounding churlish in view of the universal acknowledgement, particularly from the West, of the revolutionary nature of President General Pervez Musharraf's reversal of Pakistani policy vis-a-vis religious extremism within Pakistan as well as militancy in Kashmir, India's cynicism is not entirely unfounded, writes Sultan Shahin. (Jan 14) Full text Musharraf takes the leash off militants Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf has won acclaim on the international stage by banning two religious organizations and in pledging to crack down on militancy taught in religious schools. On the home front, though, writes Syed Saleem Shahzad, the move could backfire, with serious consequences. (Jan 14) Full text US will have its way in Kashmir The new American presence in South and Central Asia, and the emergence of Kashmir as a possible nuclear flashpoint, mean that Kashmir has now become internationalized, or more accurately, Americanized. Against this backdrop, perceived self-interests will guide US behavior, not the concerns of the Indian and Pakistani governments. (Jan 14) Full text Al-Qaeda? What Al-Qaeda? While the transfer of Taliban and Al-Qaeda prisoners from Afghanistan to the United States Guantanamo base in Cuba has caught the imagination of the international press, residents around the camp remain largely unimpressed. (Jan 14) Full text US wakes up to Iran threat Indicative of its increasing intolerance of anyone not fully in its camp, the United States has issued a blunt warning to Iran to stop interfering in the affairs of Afghanistan - a charge that Tehran has flatly denied. The US has also sent troops to the Philippines to assist the army there in its fight against terrorists. (Jan 11) Full text
Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres has pledged his country's "full support" for India in its fight against terrorism, raising hopes in New Delhi of deeper defense cooperation with Tel Aviv. Sudha Ramachandran writes, though, that India is unlikely to receive as much as it would like. (Jan 11) Full text ... and they could be misplaced What is striking about the new strategic tie-up between India and Israel is that not one political party in India or any section of the mainstream media is opposed to it, writes Sultan Shahin, who warns that the relationship could come at the expense of India's traditional ties with Arab and Muslim countries. (Jan 11) Full text Iran courts Pakistan to counter US Iran has put aside its differences with Pakistan to launch a diplomatic offensive to embrace Islamabad. The new friendship will be used as a platform to rally support against the United States military presence in the region, reports Syed Saleem Shahzad. (Jan 10) Full text Zhu's Delhi visit: a chance for peace The visit next week by Zhu Rongji to India, the first by a Chinese prime minister in 11 years, could help thaw relations between the two countries and bring bilateral trade closer to its potential. But it could go further by serving to ease tensions on the India-Pakistan border, writes Francesco Sisci. (Jan 10) Full text Hiding behind a nuclear cloud As neither Pakistan nor India has developed an "official" nuclear doctrine, as have the world's other five nuclear powers, the circumstances under which they will use nuclear weapons remain clouded in mystery. This is in large part by design as both sides want to keep each other guessing. (Jan 10) Full text Afghan sanctions outlive usefulness The Taliban may have gone, but United Nations sanctions imposed against Afghanistan in 1999 remain in force. The UN is now considering lifting them, and not a moment too soon, argue critics, saying that they achieved very little in the first place. (Jan 10) Full text
Terror crackdown opportunism As the United States-led campaign against terrorism spreads, increasing numbers of governments are jumping on the bandwagon and using the excuse of cracking down on terrorist groups to target opposition forces. While in the present climate this can be tolerated, in the long run it cannot be allowed to continue. (Jan 9) Full text The key to Asian stability The United States might view stronger ties between China and India as a threat, but September 11 showed from where the true winds of instability are blowing: Islamic fundamentalism. A stronger India-China relationship combined with strengthened China-US relations would be a bulwark against the Islamist threat, writes Francesco Sisci in the second installment of a two-part analysis. (Jan 8) Full text
British Prime Minister Tony Blair, speaking in both India and Pakistan, has come down firmly on the side of New Delhi in its stance on terrorism. But before Indians crow too loudly, writes Sudha Ramachandran, it remains to be seen whether this will translate into backing on the all-important Kashmir question. (Jan 8) Full text Warlords claim their spoils Afghanistan's warlords have long had a reputation for operating beyond the law, and they are at it again, now being accused by the United Nations of siphoning off humanitarian aid destined for their war-battered countrymen. (Jan 8) Full text Summit provides some positive pointers ... The cosy behind-the-scenes chats and flamboyant handshakes between Indian and Pakistani delegates at a recent regional forum are no cause for euphoria given the huge gap in positions and priorities of the two countries. But they provide a small opening, a window of opportunity for the region, reports Sudha Ramachandran. (Jan 7) Full text ... as well as something concrete While the summit was hijacked by the India-Pakistan military stand-off and no substantive discussion on any subject of regional importance could take place, it was not a complete washout, writes Sultan Shahin. Following much spadework, a declaration was accepted that unanimously reflects India's concerns against terrorism. (Jan 7) Full text Afghanistan enters new phase of warfare The detention of the former Taliban ambassador to Pakistan, Mullah Abdul Salem Zaeef, in Afghanistan by the United States and the ongoing bombing of eastern Afghanistan have little to do with wiping out Al-Qaeda. Rather, they have everything to do with preparations for a new phase in the war in the country, writes Syed Saleem Shahzad. (Jan 7) Full text US 'cowboys' take on the 'social workers' Debate over terrorism's root causes and possible remedies is re-emerging in the United States, with hawkish "cowboys" openly scornful of dovish "social workers". These differences recall the initial "why do they hate us" debate, which broke out in the immediate aftermath of the September 11 attacks. (Jan 7) Full text ANALYSIS America's strategic muscle America's military superiority across the world will ensure that it will be able to further its goals as it sees fit. And what the US's temporary allies, such as conservative Arab nations or Pakistan, must realize, writes Marc Erikson in the second part of a two-part report, is that to stay America's friends they must reform their economies and societies or they will find themselves in the camp of US foes. (Jan 4) Full text
Just a day after pledging restraint and the desire to peacefully settle the deepening dispute with Pakistan, India's Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee hinted that any option - including a nuclear one - would be taken if necessary. The changing rhetoric reflects the vagaries of Indian politics, writes Sultan Shahin, and does little to address the real problems. (Jan 4) Full text Pakistan calls Chinese friendship into play Pakistan has drawn on its strong ties with China - both political and economic - in an effort to bring India to exercise restraint in the current spat between Islamabad and Delhi, writes Nadeem Malik. (Jan 4) Full text All's not well in Musharraf's camp Divisions within Pakistan that were smoothed over at the height of the war in Afghanistan have hardened following the rout of the Taliban, reports Syed Saleem Shahzad. Aware of the problems, President General Pervez Musharraf has moved to strengthen his position, but the danger signals are flashing. (Jan 4) Full text Divided Muslim world stands alone An arrogance of power, a rigidity bordering on stupidity, and an inability to understand the dynamics of global politics, all attributable to policies of Muslim regimes over the years, have ensured that Muslim countries facing pressures, be they military or political, will have to deal with them on their own. (Jan 4) Full text ANALYSIS Collateral strategic consequences Collateral damage from the American military campaign in Afghanistan has been bemoaned and castigated by critics; but it is the collateral strategic consequences of the campaign that will prove of lasting significance, argues Marc Erikson in the first part of a two-part report. (Jan 3) Full text Moving the goalposts for peace Having bowed to Indian demands that it clamp down on militant organizations, Pakistan now believes that it is time for India to make some concessions. Nadeem Malik writes that the upcoming South Asia Association for Regional Cooperation meeting in Nepal might offer the opportunity for this to happen. (Jan 3) Full text
Just as he was forced to change his position towards the Taliban to suit the United States in its war on terror, Pakistan's President General Pervez Musharraf is under intense pressure, from both the US and India, to clamp down on militant groups based in his country. Just how far Musharraf is prepared to cooperate could well determine whether or not there is war in the region, writes Syed Saleem Shahzad. (Jan 2) Full text
"Afghanistan is the key to Asia's stability. If there is strife in Afghanistan, there will be strife in Asia, and if there is peace in Afghanistan, Asia too will be at peace." Those words were written 70 years ago and, at the beginning of the 21st century, as the dust settles on the latest war in Afghanistan, these same words could not be more profound or more true. (Jan 2) Full text UN to tackle live US explosives in Afghanistan Already bedeviled by the estimated 10 million landmines buried during the war against the Soviet Union, beleaguered Afghanistan now faces the added terror of unexploded ordnance left behind from the US war to dislodge the Taliban from power. As a result of these new dangers to life and reconstruction, the United Nations is intensifying its de-mining program in the battered country. (Jan 2) Full text
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