Asia Times: Indonesia: Whispers of compromise


	July 20, 2001	atimes.com

Southeast Asia

Indonesia: Whispers of compromise
By Kanis Dursin

JAKARTA - A loose coalition of political parties seeking the ouster of President Abdurrahman Wahid is cracking under the embattled head of state's threat to declare a state of emergency, putting Vice President Megawati Sukarnoputri's presidential bid in doubt.

Golkar party chair Akbar Tandjung and the head of the Muslim-based United Development Party (PPP), Hamzah Haz, have held "secret" meetings with Wahid and his lobbyists to iron out a possible political compromise with the head of state, who faces an impeachment hearing on August 1.

The meeting between Tandjung, Haz, and senior government officials was the second after they met with Wahid on July 10, just one day after they had refused to show up in a meeting of party leaders organized by Wahid. The details of the meetings have not been publicly revealed, with party leaders saying only that they had been set up to find a win-win solution to the current political impasse, raising concerns that the anti-Wahid coalition is now cracking.

A special session of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), the country's top law-making body, is scheduled to seek Wahid's accountability and possibly impeach him for his government's poor performance during his 20 months in power. Megawati stands to succeed him if he resigns or is impeached before his term runs out in 2004. However, with the anti-Wahid forces seemingly leaning towards a compromise, Megawati's presidential quest is in jeopardy and she might have to settle for an increase in her vice-presidential powers rather than the presidential post, which Wahid would retain in a ceremonial capacity.

PPP secretary-general Alimarwan Hanan confirmed that Tandjung and Haz had met with Coordinating Minister for Political, Social and Security Affairs Agum Gumelar and Cabinet Secretary Marzuki Darusman on July 15 to "urge Wahid to hand over his authority to Megawati".

Megawati was never informed of the meeting, raising speculation that the two political parties have struck deals with Wahid. The suspicion heightened after presidential spokesman Adhie Massardi told reporters this week that Wahid would likely hold off his threat to declare a state of emergency after "reaching a common understanding with friends that national interests are above personal interest".

Desperate to cling to power, Wahid has threatened to issue a presidential decree declaring a state of emergency on July 20 if no compromise is reached between him and his opponents in the MPR. According to some legislators, Wahid has already prepared the decree, but has yet to sign it.

But doubt remains whether Wahid will carry out his threat. Declaring a state of emergency would likely accelerate his ouster as some MPR factions have agreed to hold a special session immediately after Wahid imposes a state of emergency. Also, Wahid does not have the support of the military and police. Issuing a state of emergency without the power to carry it out would only embarrass him.

Consequently, patching up a compromise seems the best offer. Golkar, the former ruling party, and the PPP are the second and third biggest factions both in the MPR and the lower House of Representatives (DPR). Together with Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the National Mandate Party (PAN), the Crescent Start Party (PBB), and the Justice Party (PK), Golkar and PPP have sought Wahid's impeachment.

Megawati's reluctance to enter into a power-sharing agreement may have frustrated Haz, who is being nominated by his party as vice president under a Megawati presidency. Many PPP legislators are also known to be against a woman president.

Any compromise at this stage, however, would not stop MPR members from holding the August 1 session as Megawati and her PDI-P have refused to bargain outside of this meeting. "In principle, the PDI-P will never respond to a compromise proposal if it is done outside the MPR special session," PDI-P Deputy Secretary General Promono Anung says.

Clearly, Megawati does not want to be "cheated" for the second time. Last year, Wahid issued a presidential decree assigning her to be in charge of the government's day-to-day operations, but he never allowed her to make policies or issue regulations.

Some PDI-P legislators say that the party is ready to forge a compromise with Wahid as long as the MPR issues a decree transferring his presidential authority to her. Megawati would then have legitimate power to govern the country and formulate policies, while Wahid would remain as president, but without power. Since Megawati's mandate would come from the MPR, Wahid could not withdraw it, as happened previously.

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