|
||
|
|
|
|
||
Ethnic tensions weakening Mahathir's grip on power
STRATFOR.COM's
Global Intelligence Update
Mar 14, 2001
Summary
The Malaysian government is downplaying a weekend of ethnic Indian-Malay fighting that left at least six dead and more than 190 arrested. The rise in ethnic tensions, which raises the specter of the 1960s race riots that left hundreds dead, is increasingly troublesome to Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. His actions to retain ethnic minority support have undermined his support base among the majority Malay population.
Analysis
At least six people have been killed in suburbs of Kuala Lumpur in what has been called the worst race-related violence in Malaysia since March 1998. Fighting between ethnic Malays and ethnic Indians erupted on March 8, triggered by an earlier incident where an Indian funeral procession passed through a Malay wedding party, according to local media reports. By March 12, six people were dead, 52 injured and 190 arrested.
Malaysian government officials, including Deputy Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, quickly downplayed the racial aspect of the fighting. Increasingly, ethnic tensions between Malaysia's Malay majority and the Chinese and Indian minority are rising to the surface. With fears of a repeat of the 1969 race riots that left hundreds dead, Mahathir and his party face the ever more difficult challenge of balancing the support of the ethnic minorities and the majority Malay constituency.
While the ethnic Chinese and many ethnic Indians are counted among Malaysia's economic elite, the recent violence in the suburbs of Kuala Lumpur occurred in poor neighborhoods of ethnic enclaves that had previous gang problems. Commenting in the Sunday Star on the violence, Mahathir said, "There were no racial clashes, but when people start spreading rumors that Indians are attacking Malays, then people come out and it happens." While his comments were an attempt to play down the racial aspects of the fighting, they emphasized the increasingly tenuous state of racial stability in Malaysia.
Malaysia's population is made up of 8 percent ethnic Indians and 30 percent ethnic Chinese, with the remainder comprising ethnic Malays and indigenous groups. Before the 1997 Asian economic crisis, Malaysia's economic growth helped keep racial tensions in check. Mahathir's ruling National Front coalition, which includes his United Malay National Organization (Umno), the Malaysian Chinese Association, the Malaysian Indian Congress and several other parties, dominated Malaysian politics.
With the onset of the regional economic malaise and the trial of popular then deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim, Mahathir's popularity flagged, particularly among ethnic Malays. During the run-up to the 1999 elections, an opposition coalition sprung up. The Alternative Front loosely brought together the National Justice Party, led by Anwar's wife; the ethnic Chinese Democratic Action Party; the Malaysian People's Party; and the Islamic Party of Malaysia, PAS, a fundamentalist Islamic party. The opposition coalition exploited confusion and concern in the Malay community, leaving Mahathir's Umno with only around 50 percent of the ethnic Malay vote. It was the votes of the minority races that allowed Mahathir to remain in power.
Since the election, Mahathir has undertaken two simultaneous, yet seemingly incompatible agendas. He has sought to maintain the support of Malaysia's ethnic minorities, calling for national unity and suggesting that a non-Malay could be prime minister some time in the future. And he has sought to reunite the ethnic Malay community behind his party and agenda. With PAS exploiting the issue of Malay rights and Islamic rule, ethnic minority groups have reacted with calls for increased rights, further complicating Mahathir's calls for unity.
The latest outbreak of ethnic violence comes two months after Malaysia narrowly avoided confrontations in the street between Malays and Chinese over demands to end special rights for Malays. The Malaysian Chinese Organizations Election Appeals Committee, Suqiu, had issued a series of demands, including an end to affirmative action programs for Malays, but withdrew its demands after threats of massive Malay street demonstrations.
The rights programs for Malays, originally put in place put in place after 1969 race riots between Chinese and Malays, were sparked by concerns that ethnic Chinese were dominating Malaysia's business environment while ethnic Malays were lagging behind. While Malaysia avoided the brunt of the Asian economic crisis, economic uncertainties exacerbate the underlying resentment among Malaysia's ethnic minorities toward the affirmative action program for the majority.
While Mahathir struggles to maintain support of these minorities, he also faces the waning support of the fractured Malay populace, many of whom feel disenfranchised and are now backing the opposition National Justice Party and PAS. Mahathir's Umno has undertaken an initiative to hold a Malay unity meeting, calling for participation by all Malay political parties, including PAS. But, the event has been delayed several times, in part over concern that it will further isolate the minority races. PAS officials have called for establishing one party to represent ethnic Malays, saying such a party must be true to the tenets of Islam.
With Malaysia's economy trapped in the regional slump, Mahathir's troubles will only worsen. Throughout Southeast Asia - from Indonesia to Vietnam, Laos to Myanmar - ethnic and religious tensions are erupting into violence. Without a surge in economic growth, MalaysiaŐs ethnic tensions are likely to boil over, leading to other clashes and increasingly weakening Mahathir's hold on power.
(c) 2000, WNI, Inc.
_________________________________
For republication policy contact:
STRATFOR, Inc.
504 Lavaca, Suite 1100
Austin, TX 78701
Phone: 512-583-5000
Fax: 512-583-5025
Internet: http://www.stratfor.com/
Email: info@stratfor.com
