Asia Times: Hill-tribe warriors fight a proxy war


	July 28, 2000	atimes.com

Southeast Asia

Hill-tribe warriors fight a proxy war
By Satya Sivaraman and Apichart Suttiwong

CHIANG MAI - Tension is building in north-west Burma close to the Thai-Burma border, as two well-armed ethnic groups prepare for battle in what is being dubbed a "proxy war" between the neighboring countries.

The United Wa State Army (UWSA), backed by the Burmese government, is moving thousands of soldiers and civilians into areas formerly controlled by the Shan ethnic group, risking conflict with the anti-Rangoon Shan State Army (SSA) which is being covertly armed by the Thai military.

If fighting does break out, thousands of civilians, both Shan and Wa, are expected to be affected and cross the border into Thailand as refugees. Analysts however rule out any direct confrontation between the Thai and Burmese armies, because currently ''neither of them are prepared for the consequences''.

A primary reason for the conflict between the two ethnic groups is the UWSA's attempts to take control of narcotics production centers inside Shan territory along the Thai-Burma border.

Though the Shan State Army is a successor of the Muang Tai Army, which was run by notorious drug warlord Khun Sa until he surrendered to the Burmese government in 1995, it claims to be against the drug trade and has launched a campaign against narcotics production inside areas it controls.

But behind the scenes, analysts point out, is an attempt by the Burmese military government to pit the UWSA against the Shan, one of the few ethnic groups still fighting an armed battle for autonomy from Rangoon.

In the past decade most of the other ethnic groups inside Burma have signed ceasefires with the government and put their long-standing demands for autonomy or independence on the back burner.

''In the long run, the Burmese plan is to replace all the ethnic groups along the border which are hostile to the government with ones that are friendly, and thus create a buffer against the Thai army,'' says an Asian diplomat here. The plan mirrors the policy followed by past Thai governments of supporting various ethnic rebel groups to keep the Burmese army in check.

Thailand and Burma share a 1,700 kilometer border, many parts of which are poorly marked and could become flashpoints for armed conflict between the two countries.

For Thai authorities, a more immediate reason to support the SSA is their ire against the UWSA, which they hold responsible for flooding Thailand with methamphetamines. Popularly known as ya baa - the mad drug - methamphetamines have become a major threat to the fabric of Thai society.

The number of addicts have risen to more than a million within the past decade. According to Thailand's Office of the Narcotics Control Board, 6 million pills were seized in 1995 and by 1999 the number had increased to about 48 million.

Although the Burmese military junta has publicly proclaimed a crackdown on drug production inside its territory, Thai and international anti-narcotics officials believe that it is covertly supporting drug production by the Wa and Kokang ethnic groups. These groups' bases are close to the China-Burma border.

To suppress the trafficking of ya baa into northern Thailand, Thai police and military agencies have for the past two years virtually sealed off several provinces bordering Burma. But their efforts have failed to deter smuggling groups which, since the middle of last year, have been rerouting their traffic through north-eastern Thailand.

''Our Burmese counterparts along the border say that they are cooperating with us in the fight against drugs,'' said Major General Jamlong Phothong, deputy commander of the 3rd Army Division of the Thai Army, which operates on the northern Thai-Burma border. "Yet they seem unable to stop the production of large quantities of narcotics in areas under their influence.''

Talking to the media in Chiang Mai mid-July, the Thai general hinted that Burmese commanders, as a matter of policy or expediency, are hand-in-glove with the Wa drug bosses.

Of immediate worry to Thai authorities is the movement of an estimated 200,000 Wa, Akha and Lahu highland people from along the Sino-Burmese border southward to the newly built township of Mong Yawn near the Thai-Burma border. Though the Burmese government and UWSA leadership have justified the relocation of people as an effort to wean them from opium cultivation, many believe the move is yet another step in Burma's proxy battle with the SSA and Thailand.

''The UWSA is consolidating its political, economic and military power base and using innocent civilians to take over new territories south of their traditional power base,'' says a researcher based in Chiang Mai.

To counter these political and military moves, the Thai army has been training and arming the SSA, which it sees as the only force capable of checking the advance of the UWSA. With just 5,000 troops, the SSA is greatly outnumbered by the 15,000-strong UWSA, but it is benefiting from the Thai supply of superior weaponry.

Thai strategists believe that if they do not support the SSA, the Shan rebels will surely be overrun by the combined forces of the UWSA and the Burmese army. This could result in the presence of forces hostile to Thailand on the border, and an influx of large number of refugees into Thai territory.

International human rights groups have already reported the displacement within Burma of several hundreds of thousands of Shan villagers, uprooted by fighting between the SSA and Burmese government forces. SSA commanders have accused the Burmese military of deliberately breaking up families and displacing them in order to prevent them giving support to the rebels.

A flood of ethnic hill-tribe people into northern Thailand will add to the already volatile situation in the area where several hundred thousand highlanders already live, often without proper papers or citizenship.

If the Thai gamble of backing the SSA succeeds, the government can slow down the UWSA's relentless drive to expand its narco-empire into new territory. An SSA victory over the Wa, however, will not be enough to end the business of narcotics inside Burmese territory. That may require a fundamental change in the structure of power in Rangoon, where the military dictatorship is deeply involved in making money from drugs while keeping its ethnic allies under control and Thailand on its toes.

(Inter Press Service)

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