Asia Times: Confusion in Manila, advantage on the battlefield


	May 6, 2000	atimes.com

Southeast Asia

Confusion in Manila, advantage on the battlefield
STRATFOR.COM
Global Intelligence Update
Weekly Analysis May 5, 2000

Summary

Philippine Vice President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo was considering meeting with hostage-takers in the southern Philippines, despite objections by President Joseph Estrada. While most of the first set of hostages held by the extremist Abu Sayyaf have now been released, it appears that the group is very astutely playing on divisions within the government in Manila, as are leaders of other Muslim groups. The rebels are hoping that the current crisis can be used to alter the power structure in Manila.

Analysis

On May 3, extremist Abu Sayyaf group's spokesman, Abu Sabaya, contacted Philippine Vice President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo by telephone to discuss the release of Philippine hostages being held by the group on the southern island of Basilan. The group offered to release the hostages being held on Basilan to Arroyo so that negotiations can focus next on a group of foreign hostages on the southern island of Jolo.

Macapagal-Arroyo's participation in the negotiations was abruptly cut short by Estrada. Press Secretary Ronaldo Puno told reporters that Macapagal-Arroyo had permission to talk to Abu Sayyaf and deliver messages to Estrada - but nothing more. A firefight between the military and hostage-takers has since led to the release of 15 captives on Basilan. And Macapagal-Arroyo's involvement became a ''non issue'', her spokesman, Bobby Capco, told Business World.

The hostage situation in the south appears to be adding stress to the relationship between the president and his vice president. For some time, Macapagal-Arroyo had adopted a low-profile role behind Estrada. But following a trip abroad in early April, she has recently become more vocal, calling on the government to assess whether it is adequately addressing the needs of the poor or just the powerful. Some of Estrada's party members are concerned that Arroyo is clandestinely working to bring down the president.

Beleaguered by accusations of cronyism, tepid foreign investment and an escalating conflict in the south, Estrada faces a potential challenge from Macapagal-Arroyo. His popular vice president also happens to be from the opposition Lakas Party. Giving Macapagal-Arroyo a prominent role in any negotiations would only add to her popular support if she were able to accomplish an end to the standoff that Estrada - through the military - has been unable to achieve.

Abu Sayyaf is not the only group using the hostilities to take advantage of the political instability in Manila. The established Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) broke a ceasefire with the government on April 30 after the military continued to mass forces around its base Camp Abubakar. MILF leaders have reportedly said that they are preparing to defend themselves against the government.

Fighting on the southern island of Mindanao has recently spread through several provinces. Several elected officials from the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) have also charged that the Philippine military misled Estrada into maintaining a hard-line stand on the MILF and have called for a return to peace, according to ABS-CBN News. Estrada has also failed to fulfill the 1996 peace agreement with the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), which runs the autonomous region.

The rebels' charges reflect a larger fear on the part of their leadership: that the military is planning to trick Estrada into an all-out war in the southern Philippines, instead of observing a shaky peace agreement. Such a conflict could be followed by a coup, in which Estrada is declared unfit to lead the country out of the crisis. The MILF charges, aired several weeks ago, are clearly designed to heighten mistrust within the Philippine military and the president, weakening their effectiveness.

The rebel tactic appears to be aimed at a political reality in Manila. The country's top two politicians are taking very different tacks in dealing with the fighting in the south.

On May 4, Estrada traveled to North Luzon to launch several public works programs. He is also still planning to travel to China soon. Estrada's apparent nonchalance at the situation is matched by his advocacy of a military solution to unrest. Estrada has given the MILF a unilateral June deadline for peace; if not, it faces all-out war. He maintains that the only solution for Abu Sayyaf is elimination.

In contrast, Macapagal-Arroyo traveled to Cebu to oversee relief efforts for those displaced by the fighting in Mindanao. Earlier, she had told reporters the government was considering a 72-hour ceasefire, during which time she - as head of the Social Welfare department as well - would assess the situation.

The rebels have a two-fold reason for trying to destabilize the current government. First, confusion in Manila translates to advantage on the battlefield in Mindanao. Second, rebel leaders believe that eventually placing Macapagal-Arroyo in the presidency means a more sympathetic hearing in the government. With Estrada apparently aloof and Macapagal-Arroyo making her desire for a greater role quite clear, rebels in the southern Philippines are exacerbating the rift in Manila in the hope of a transition of power.

(c) 2000 WNI, Inc. http://www.stratfor.com/

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