Asia Times: Crackdown reflects Malaysian establishment's jitters


	April 18, 2000	atimes.com

Southeast Asia

Crackdown reflects Malaysian establishment's jitters
By Anil Netto

PENANG, Malaysia - The repressive action against organizers and ''reformasi'' supporters involved in Saturday's opposition rally in Kuala Lumpur demonstrates the Malaysian government's nervousness over any form of open dissent.

The might of the security forces was brought to bear against the well-planned rally, dubbed ''Black 14'', leaving many ordinary Malaysians and analysts bewildered. The crackdown continued into Monday with the arrest of two more leaders of the opposition National Justice Party (Keadilan), bringing the total number of people detained to over 50.

''Black 14'' was meant to mark the first anniversary of the sentencing of ousted former deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim to six years' imprisonment. Organizers had expected a crowd numbering 7,000 to 20,000 in Kuala Lumpur.

But the government had other ideas. Officials warned the public to stay away, saying that violence could erupt during the demonstration. On the eve of the rally, police arrested key organizers and suspected demonstrators as they boarded Kuala Lumpur-bound trains. Police also set up road blocks to stop demonstrators from entering the capital.

Rifle-toting policemen created a climate of alarm in Kuala Lumpur in the hours leading up to the rally. The National Mosque, the focal point of the rally, was cordoned off as helicopters clattered above.

Despite the heavy security, crowds of 200 to 500 gathered, split and regrouped in a cat-and-mouse game with riot police. Eyewitnesses reported that several protestors were beaten and dozens hauled away.

By day's end, it was Keadilan that suffered the most damage, with many of its prominent leaders arrested, although party president Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, Anwar's wife, and her deputy, Chandra Muzaffar, remain free.

''It is clear that most city folk do not want to take part in such events,'' said Deputy Premier Abdullah Badawi, who is also Home Affairs Minister. Asked if this was due to scare tactics, he said: ''Maybe some people are scared because of the warnings given by police, but maybe it was also because it's a long weekend and people want to go for picnics.''

Some analysts see the smaller-than-expected turnout for the opposition rally as a boost for Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, in power for 19 years. ''At first glance, it is a major victory for Mahathir,'' says Johan Saravanamuttu, a political science professor. ''A surface reading would be that Mahathir has strengthened his hand and now has a tight rein over any demonstrations.

''On the other hand, his credibility continues to be questioned, not just by Malaysians but in the eyes of the world. Mahathir, he points out, had supported the Seattle demonstrations against the World Trade Organization and the crackdown against ''Black 14'' simply ''shows up his double standards''. It's a clear case of the state using its power to intimidate the reformasi forces, says Johan.

Mahathir and Abdullah are virtually assured of being returned unopposed in party polls to be held in May by the United Malays National Organization (Umno), the lynchpin of the ruling coalition. But in last November's general election, the opposition front made key inroads into Umno territory with ethnic Malays, who make up half the population, evenly divided in their support.

''Black 14'' was not a total disaster for Keadilan. Given the heavy deployment of state apparatus to nip the event in the bud, the fact that 500 people actually turned up to demonstrate their concerns was a statement in itself.

''It is a sign that the reformasi movement is still alive,'' says social reformer Jubal Lourdes. ''The awareness is still there.'' The aborted rally has kept alive the Anwar issue along with other issues related to justice, the high-handedness of the government, and the lack of credibility of the judiciary.

Says Johan: ''The fact that the govenment went out of its way to nip the event in the bud, literally dousing it with water cannons, indicates the government is still very concerned that these issues are still in the minds of the public.''

Though not a disaster, the event was not a success for the opposition either, with Keadilan reeling from the spate of arrests. The arrests, analysts say, was aimed at breaking the spirit of Keadilan and its supporters.

Keadilan will undoubtedly have to rethink its strategy. In the early days of reformasi in late 1998, spontaneous demonstrations emerged out of nowhere as public outrage boiled over the treatment of Anwar. Now that much of the initial anger has waned, so has the spontaneity.

Demonstrations now require more organized planning, which makes it a lot easier for the police to clamp down. For instance, the details of ''Black 14'', its contact persons and meeting points were posted on a ''Black 14'' website. That made life a lot easier for the police, who just turned up to arrest reformasi organizers and supporters at train stations and other meeting points. ''Trains were delayed and passengers kept waiting in their coaches for as long as an hour,'' said the opposition Barisan Alternatif (Alternative Front) in a press release.

''The government has overreacted again,'' says Lourdes. ''It clearly shows they want to silence the whole thing. There's no room for dissent.''

For analysts like Johan, the authorities' over-reaction against a peaceful gathering is telling. ''It's a comment on the insecurity of the regime,'' he says. ''Why would you feel so insecure after having won a general election and with the economy under your control?''

For one thing, the ghost of Anwar continues to haunt Mahathir and the Umno leadership. During last Saturday's demonstrations, riot police reacted furiously at the mere chant of ''reformasi'', which has become something of a dirty word in establishment circles.

Though Mahathir may have emerged unscathed, the more events like this occur, the more the credibility of his leadership gets eroded, says Johan. ''In most political systems, it doesn't take much for a political leader to lose his credibility,'' he observes. But given the tight political control over any open expression of dissent here in Malaysia, it is going to take a little bit more.

(Inter Press Service)

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