Asia Times: Rebels target fragile Philippine infrastructure


	April 13, 2000	atimes.com

Southeast Asia

Rebels target fragile Philippine infrastructure
STRATFOR.COM's
Global Intelligence Update
April 12, 2000

Summary

After four years of relative quiet, separatist violence in the Philippines has recently escalated, adding to the increasingly full plate of troubles facing President Joseph Estrada. Now the situation appears poised to worsen: rebels in both the northern and southern portions of the country may soon shift their strategy to attacks on the country's fragile energy infrastructure. If upcoming peace talks between the government and the separatist Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) fail, the rebels may exploit the already high levels of unrest in the Philippines to better their chances in the event of a full-scale civil war.

Analysis

On April 9, an Iranian national en route to the Philippine island of Mindanao was arrested after immigration authorities reportedly found a map of ''American facilities and oil depots'' in his backpack, according to the Philippine Star website. He was likely sent to assist one of several separatist groups in their campaign for an independent Muslim state on the island.

The incident may signify that the country's insurgent groups - which include communist rebels in addition to Muslim separatists - are shifting their focus to strikes against the country's energy supply. With a round of peace negotiations set to begin on May 2, rebels may attempt to pressure the government through a new wave of attacks. A failure to negotiate a peaceful solution may prompt preparations for a full-scale civil war.

After four years of relative quiet, separatist violence in the Philippines has recently escalated. In desperation, Estrada has now set a deadline for a peace agreement with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), a 15,000-strong group. If a working agreement has not been established by June 30, Estrada said, the government will launch a full-scale offensive on the rebels.

In the case of a full-scale offensive, the MILF would likely join forces with other rebel organizations. Many of them have a history of cooperation. On April 6, communist rebels of the National Democracy Front (NDF) announced plans to increase their already strong alliance with the MILF.

In recent weeks, both the MILF and an NDF splinter group have attacked the country's oil and power infrastructure. On April 10, the MILF attacked a hydroelectric power plant near the southern town of Baloi. The attack cut off electricity to the island's 16 million residents. In the past the MILF has held the region's power supply ransom in order to extract payoffs from the government. Now it appears that the MILF has chosen to use the nation's power infrastructure to combat the government

In addition to the sabotaged power plant, oil infrastructure has also been a recent target of rebel attacks. Last month, a communist group known as the Revolutionary Proletarian Army-Alex Boncayao Brigade (ABB) attacked an oil depot and the offices of oil firms Petron and Shell. The group has declared it will pose a ''perpetual threat'' to oil companies for jacking up prices, reported The Manila Times on March 4.

Targeting the power supply could aid the rebels by exacerbating already high levels of unrest and social turmoil. Last December, for example, jellyfish clogged the cooling system of a single coal-fired power plant on the island of Luzon. As a result, the entire island, population 40 million, lost power for the night. Philippine papers reported widespread fear that the blackout was part of a putsch to topple Estrada's disparaged government. By attacking a single power plant, a small number of rebels could throw huge areas of the Philippines into chaos. Ensuing unrest might occupy government forces sufficiently to boost the effectiveness of a rebel attack.

Attacks upon oil infrastructure could yield similar results by creating an oil shortage. The country's domestic production sits at only 4,000 barrels per day, forcing the government to import almost all its oil from the three major foreign or joint venture oil companies operating refineries within the country: Shell, Petron and Caltex. Attacks could send these companies fleeing, or at least force them to limit their supply, nudging the price of oil up even further. Already, the high price of oil has caused massive social distress, accelerating the plummet of public confidence in Estrada's leadership.

Knowing the imminent danger, government forces will have to focus their attention on defending key oil and electricity infrastructure. This could become a significant handicap, tying down soldiers who could otherwise respond with more flexibility to rebel attacks.

Neither the government nor the rebels wants to resume full-scale civil war. Nevertheless, the upcoming weeks will likely see a spate of rebel attacks. These attacks will be geared at pressuring the government to drop its deadline at the May 2 peace talks. But MILF leadership has already said that a peace agreement before June 30 was highly unlikely. Fearing war against government forces, which outnumber MILF forces by more than 50,000 troops, rebels will increasingly seek out ways to prepare for the coming struggle. Exploiting omnipresent unrest in the country through attacks on oil and power supplies may become their best recourse.

(c) 2000, Stratfor, Inc. http://www.stratfor.com/
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