Asia Times: Brutal security tactics threaten Indonesian stability



	October 01, 1999	atimes.com

Southeast Asia

Brutal security tactics threaten Indonesian stability
STRATFOR.COM
Global Intelligence Update
September 30, 1999

Summary:

In the past week, at least seven people have been killed, over 40 injured and numerous more arrested by Indonesian security forces during protests in Jakarta. The reasons for the increased number of protests are uncertain, but the increased intensity of the government's response is unmistakable. This new security doctrine could have severe repercussions if the protests continue.

Analysis:

The intensity of clashes between demonstrators and security forces in Jakarta has increased over the past week, as students rallied against a new security bill. The police appear to have become more forceful in dealing with the protesters, dispersing groups before protests can occur and using deadly force. This aggressiveness is a shift from earlier tactics, which have generally shown restraint. There are several possible causes for this shift, but the results could be dangerous for the country if the protests continue.

Over the last week, the police have killed at least seven protestors and injured 40 more. The recent brutality of the security forces contrasts with the crowd control tactics used over the past nine months. Previous protests in Jakarta have been met with tear gas, arrests, rubber bullets and police batons. While warning shots fired at protestors and injuries have been common, the use of deadly force has been avoided.

The motives for this new aggressiveness could stem from several issues. The current protests and police reactions began with student discontent over the proposed State of Danger Management Bill, which has since passed the House of Representatives (DPR). Security forces viewed the bill's passage as essential and their aggressiveness could simply be a function of their desire to protect their interests and see the bill pass.

Political instability is another possibility for a number of reasons. First, President B J Habibie is under extreme pressure to step down from office because of the Bank Bali scandal and the loss of East Timor. His government may be issuing incoherent orders to the military, or possibly no orders at all. Alternately, the security forces may simply be choosing to ignore orders they are receiving.

Military reshuffling is another possible factor. With a possible presidential bid in the near future, Defense Minister and armed forces chief Gen Wiranto may be stocking key positions in the army with chosen personnel. Although there has been no mention of this in the Indonesian press, there may be a new commander for Jakarta's security forces and thus a new doctrine on the streets.

Another possibility is that security forces are reacting to the East Timor situation, which many military men regard as a betrayal by Indonesia's political leaders. Since many personnel have close ties to the region, there is both institutional pride and anger in the security forces over this issue. Liberal intellectual students make a convenient target for the frustration and anger felt by the police and army.

Security forces may also be trying to send a message prior to the convening of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), which will be sworn in on October 1. This will be the first time the MPR has met following a truly democratic general election and the government does not want the proceedings disrupted. The Jakarta police have reportedly promised up to 60,000 personnel to maintain law and order while the MPR is in session. These recent tactics could be an attempt to discourage further protests.

Considering the change in security tactics, the next few days could prove critical to Indonesia's stability. The upcoming MPR session will most likely lead to increased student protests and increased clashes with security forces. Student groups have already promised that they will show up in large numbers. The police have sworn to maintain control. If the security forces continue their new aggressive patterns the possibility exists that a significant amount of blood will be shed.

The return of the use of deadly force by the Jakarta security forces portends two outcomes, neither of which is attractive. The first, that the students will be intimidated into leaving the streets after receiving some initial casualties, and would leave the situation in the streets relatively stable, at least on the surface. The second outcome is that any number of casualties will arouse public fury. In this scenario, the protests will increase in size and ferocity, similar to what occurred in May 1998, when four student protestors were killed. Those killings triggered the riots that led to the downfall of Suharto's government.

(c) 1999, Stratfor, Inc.

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