Asia Times: Malaysia's opposition must fight fear of change



	July 21, 1999	atimes.com

Southeast Asia

Malaysia's opposition must fight fear of change
By Anil Netto

PENANG, Malaysia - Preparing for impending generalelections, which must be called by mid-2000 but may come as early as September, Malaysia's opposition politicians are waging a psychological war to win voters to their side. Their biggest stumbling block, however, may be Malaysians' fear of the unknown.

The United Malays National Organization (UMNO) has been part of the ruling government since Malaysian independence, and many people may be reluctant to embrace change. This potential problem has not slowed the opposition movement, however.

The opposition parties have been riding the wave of frustration and distrust created by the 1998 sacking of Deputy Premier Anwar Ibrahim, his subsequent arrest and brutal assaultwhile in police custody. The travails of Anwar unleashed Malaysia's ''reformasi'' movement.But political analysts say opposition politicians who think frustration automatically translates into votes for their parties may be misreading the public.

Analysts say that, unlike Indonesia where millions were living in desperate circumstances before President Suharto was forced to resign in May 1998, a sizeable number of Malaysians feel - rightly or wrongly - that they have too much to lose if they vote for untested parties. After all, says political scientist Johan Saravanamuttu, ''there is a sense of security right now and the economy is recovering. People don't want to risk losing something that is moving well."

Indeed, the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition is banking on the idea that ethnic Malays, who make up about half Malaysia's 22 million people, are not prepared for major changes just yet.

Out of the 192 parliamentary seats, 100 are constituencies inwhich Malays are in the majority. Two opposition parties - the Islamic Party (PAS) and the new National Justice Party led by Anwar's wife, Wan Azizah Wan Ismail - are expected to challenge the Barisan coalition for these Malay-majority seats. The Malays thus have a choice of sticking with the familiar, as they have been culturally conditioned to do for decades, or to plunge into the unknown by voting for opposition parties.

A majority of Malays have long looked up to the UMNO, thedominant party in the ruling coalition, as the community's protector.Some say this is a legacy of Malaysia's feudal past, when theylooked up to the sultans as the guardians of the community.

Some analysts point out that it may not be easy for these peopleto abandon the UMNO, which, for all its warts, has helped propel manyMalays into the economic mainstream with a slew of affirmativeaction policies. But others say the almost mythical historical pact between rulerand ruled, as recorded in the Malay Annals, was broken when PrimeMinister Mahathir Mohamad publicly shamed Anwar by accusing him ofsodomy. The pact barred a ruler from humiliating his subjects, inexchange for their undivided loyalty.

In addition to the difference between those who embrace the status quo and those who are unhappy with it, there is a generational difference in potential voters, Johan noted. YoungerMalays, identifying with Anwar's youthful Islamic idealism, were more outraged at Anwar's sacking and assault than older, more passive, Malays.

Then there are the ethnic Chinese, who make up a quarter ofMalaysia's population. Often victims of government ''bumiputra'' policies thatfavor the Malays, Chinese Malaysians are now worried about PAS'savowed goal to set up an Islamic state despite attempts by theopposition front to play it down. Said Johan: ''They don'tunderstand it [an Islamic state] and so there is the fear. It's anunknown quantity.'' As it is, most Chinese have been lukewarm to the ''reformasi''movement, though significant segments of Chinese youth have beendrawn to its ideals.

But the Chinese community's elders have only to look across the narrowStraits of Malacca at neighboring Indonesia and the orchestratedviolence against ethnic Chinese there, to be filledwith uncertainty. Some three decades ago, Chinese Malaysians were themselves targets ofcommunal riots, which are now being brought up by some politicians as reminders of what could happen if the future government is not as strong as the present one.

Analysts say the Barisan coalition has sensed that the Malay vote is split,and is trying to draw the deciding votes from ethnic Chinese and Indians. Thereis no question, though, over who is getting the more attention. ''They are really going for the Chinese vote,'' admitted Johan.

The Barisan is not unopposed in the push for the ethnic Chinese vote. One option is the multi-ethnic but Chinese-based Democratic Action Party (DAP), which is putting up candidates in seats where the Chinese dominate, preparing to do battle with the ruling parties. Playing off of the Chinese sense of insecurity, the DAP has come upwith a modest goal: to deny the Barisan Nasional a two-thirdsparliamentary majority, the threshold needed to amend the constitution.

This contrasts vividly with PAS's aim of toppling the Barisan Nasional - a goal designed to boost the confidence of Malays who may be looking for a new party to protect its interests in government rather than a stronger opposition.

The ethnic Chinese are not the only ones who are uneasy with the political unrest that could accompany a changing of the governmental guard, however. Some observers say there has been a subtle suggestion conveyed to the voters that a change in government could provoke unrest similar to that which occurred in Indonesia.

In Kuala Lumpur and other cities, for instance, ominous looking billboards have sprung up. One giant poster screams ''Beware the Enemies of the State'' while others depict scenes of demonstrations and political unrest. ''It looks as if fear is being imported from Indonesia to be implemented in the minds of Malaysians,'' commented activist P. Ramakrishnan. ''It is a terrible and contemptible thing to do. Only a government that fears change would resort to this."

Johan added: ''There is clearly a concern about the things that are going on here. But there is 'the fear of flying' into the unknown, of taking that step beyond one's comfort zone. The opposition front will have to get their act together and prove they are a viable alternative coalition if they are to dispel that fear."

(Inter Press Service)

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©1999 Asia Times Online Co., Ltd.

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