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Southeast Asia

NGOs brace for 'hot' elections
By Anil Netto

PENANG, Malaysia - Malaysian non-governmentalorganizations, worried about the possibility of irregularities inforthcoming polls, have come together to set up an independentelection monitoring body. Forty-one groups launched the Malaysian Citizens' Election Watchin Kuala Lumpur on June 26 as concern mounts over how fair thepolls - expected to be hotly contested - will be.

Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, in power for 18 years, has untilmid-2000 to hold the polls. But many observers expect him to callfor snap elections within the next three months to take advantageof a minor economic recovery after months of recession. ''We are racing against time,'' Cynthia Gabriel, the group's co-ordinator, says. ''We will definitely be caught by surprise."

The group is aware of its limitations. ''We can't really be doingeverything,'' says Gabriel. Unlike Indonesia, where foreignelection observers were on hand, the Malaysian group will not seekforeign assistance but rely solely on Malaysians to avoidaccusations that it is a tool of Western powers.

Gabriel said the first thing the group will do is tostart identifying the scope of monitoring it could do with thelimited personnel at its disposal. It will also draw up a seriesof training programs for volunteers and organisers.

The monitoring team will certainly have its work cut out for it.Mahathir said in early June that he believes the campaigning bythe opposition in the coming general election will be the dirtiestever in the country's history. Malaysia's disparate opposition parties in turn expect the premier's ruling Barisan Nasional (National Front) coalition toresort to desperate tactics to maintain its grip on power.

The Barisan has never lost a general election since independencein 1957. But the dismissal of former deputy prime minister AnwarIbrahim last September and the assault upon him while he was in police custody havechanged the political landscape. The Barisan can no longer assume it will easily retain its twothirds parliamentary majority, the threshold for amending theconstitution.

The only other time the Barisan lost its two thirds majority wasin the 1969 general election. But within days of the polls, ethnicunrest erupted in Kuala Lumpur leaving scores dead in the infamousMay 13 incident, which political observers blamed on disgruntledpoliticians. The riots led to emergency rule and left a deep scarin the nation's psyche.

Since then, the Barisan has raised the spectre of ''May 13" duringevery general election campaign - an implicit warning to votersthat chaos will erupt if the opposition does well in the polls.The opposition often counters that it has no reason to createtrouble if it performs better than expected. Some analysts believethe only real threat is from agents provocateur out to discreditthe opposition.

The new panel of election observers will have to focus onspecific areas to avoid being overstretched. ''One area that has alot of interest is the media and the second is the actualpolling,'' says Gabriel.

The media have often been manipulated to serve the rulingcoalition's interest in the run-up to polls, say observers.Although Mahathir often argues that press freedom exists andpoints to several fairly vocal Chinese and Tamil languagenewspapers as evidence, these papers are no match for the powerfulelectronic media - television and radio - which are tightlycontrolled and used extensively in the coalition's campaigning. ''The media have not only been one-sided, they have also beenused as a tool by the parties in power to put down the oppositionparties,'' says social activist Gan Kong Hwee.

Voter registration has always been controversial. The electioncommission dropped a bombshell recently when it announced that650,000 Malaysians, most of them below 35, who registered asvoters with the commission in April and early May would not beeligible to vote this year. The commission says it needs eight tonine months to process these new voter registrations. But observers suspect that the real reason is that officials areworried that many young voters, deeply disturbed by Anwar'souster, would be inclined to favour opposition parties.

Another 400,000 voters who made changes to their registrationdetails, mainly because they have moved to other constituencies,would also not have their amendments processed in time if pollsare held this year. Taken together, this means that about 10 per cent of about 10million eligible adult Malaysians will not be allowed or wouldfind it hard to vote if elections are called this year.

Political analysts also got a taste of what to expect in thecoming polls from the conduct of the Sabah state election recently,where the Barisan confounded analysts by convincingly defeatingthe Sabah United Party (PBS) despite predictions of a closecontest. The PBS alleged that ''phantom voters'' and illegal immigrantstipped the balance in the ruling coalition's favor. Otherdiscrepancies on the electoral rolls such as incorrect voterregistration details and omissions led to some confusion.

An independent election monitoring team in Sabah observed thatvoters were enticed to vote for the ruling coalition by promisesof large development projects. Indeed, the development grantspromised before the election ran into millions of ringgit.

Election observers also witnessed the distribution of large watercontainers and received reports of the distribution of zinc,plywood, gas stoves, and fishing nets. With a large segment of thepopulation starved of adequate development, the handouts were apowerful way of making voters obliged to the candidates beforepolling.

(Inter Press Service)



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