Asia Times: ANALYSIS: Opposition lead in Indonesia buoys Malaysian critics



	June 15, 1999	atimes.com

Southeast Asia

ANALYSIS: Opposition lead in Indonesia buoys Malaysian critics
By Anil Netto

PENANG, Malaysia - Politicians and analysts inMalaysia are casting a watchful eye across the Straits of Malacca,believing that an opposition win in Indonesia could hold lessons for Malaysia as well.

With results from 14 percent of the ballots in on early Friday,Megawati Sukarnoputri's Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P) wassignificantly ahead of the ruling party Golkar, raising thechances of ousting the party that has dominated Indonesia for morethan 32 years.

Megawati's PDI-P had more than 35 percent of the vote as ofearly Friday, Golkar with nearly 21 percent and the Muslim-basedNational Awakening Party, a PDI-P ally, 20.7 percent.

The outcome of Indonesia's first free poll since 1955 couldcolor the atmosphere in Malaysia in the run-up to its own generalelection, which must be held by mid-2000.

Malaysia's political elite is unlikely to be happy with theimplications that an opposition party success in Indonesia could bring. ''It will definitely have a big psychological impact on Malaysians,'' says Penang-based political scientist Professor Johan Saravanamuttu. ''The Indonesian election has shown that in a very free andopen election, once dominant ruling parties can be toppled,'' hepointed out. Indonesia, the largest Muslim-majority country in the world, isa significant player in this region, he notes. Thus, he says,''if the opposition parties do well in Indonesia, it willencourage the opposition parties here in Malaysia."

Indonesia's poll is drawing attention to some similaritiesbetween the two countries. Both Malaysia and Indonesia have been ruled for decades by hugepolitical parties: Golkar in Indonesia and the United MalaysNational Organisation (UMNO), the dominant component party of theruling Barisan Nasional, in Malaysia.

Golkar was led by Suharto for three decades until his forcedresignation in May 1998, and UMNO is led by Malaysian PrimeMinister Mahathir Mohamad, premier since 1981. He became Asia'slongest-serving elected head of government after Suharto's ouster.

Both ruling groups are being challenged by a disparate group ofopposition parties that are trying to work together. Last year, the Indonesian movement for political reforms or ''reformasi'' and Suharto's ouster inspired a small band within UMNOto hit out against ''KKN'' (the Indonesian acronym for corruption,cronyism and nepotism) at the party's general assembly last year.

Some analysts believe the open attacks against the UMNOleadership hastened the sacking of Malaysian deputy prime ministerAnwar Ibrahim in September. Anwar's dismissal and the beating hesuffered in police custody unleashed Malaysia's own brand of''reformasi''.

And if Megawati, daughter of Indonesia's founding presidentSukarno, has captured the Indonesians' imagination, Anwar's wifeDr. Wan Azizah Wan Ismail has tapped into the wave of publicaffection. News reports say that Azizah was among the first to telephoneMegawati after early vote tallies put her party in the lead.

Analysts say the fall from power of Indonesia's long-timeruling party could well sway the Malaysian mind-set, which thinksthat only the Barisan Nasional and its allies can bring stability. ''There is a reluctance - almost a denial syndrome - to believe that opposition parties here are capable of winning anelection,'' said Johan, who says voters here are used to havinga Barisan (and its forerunner, the Alliance) government sinceindependence in 1957. ''But Indonesia shows us that being used to something doesn'tmean we can't change that something for the better,'' he added.

That prospect is not enticing to everyone in Malaysia. Barisanpoliticians have been capitalizing on the fears of many ChineseMalaysians of possible unrest if Malaysian opposition partiesperform better than predicted in next year's expected poll. These politicians highlight the violence in May 1998 against the ethnic Chinese in Indonesia, making use of the uneasiness many Chinese Malaysians feel about the ''reformasi'' phenomenon. Still, asignificant segment of the Chinese here remain sympathetic towardAzizah and the cause she represents.

But politicians who seek to play the race card here fail tosee that the income disparities between the ethnic Chinese andMalays in Malaysia has narrowed, so it will be harder to targetthe Malaysian Chinese as scapegoats.

With an eye on Malaysia's own election, Prime Minister MahathirMohamad said in Tokyo on June 3 that the election in Indonesiawould destabilize that country. ''I believe that democratic elections at the best of times arevery destabilizing,'' he said. ''It is even more destabilizingwhen it is conducted at a time when there is economic andpolitical turmoil in a country like Indonesia."

Mahathir said he hoped that the election will not cause toomuch trouble or loss of life in Indonesia. ''There will be some,''he warned.

Sceptics here point out that ironically, violence in theaftermath of Indonesia's polls would probably help make manyMalaysians nervous and boost the Barisan's chances in Malaysia'sgeneral election. In such a case, Malaysian voters may well prefer to stick tothe tried and tested and shun the unknown.

But ''if there is no violence in Indonesia, our ruling partiescannot say that free democratic discussion and campaigning will bedetrimental to stability,'' says Johan. ''They always raise thespecter of May 13 [riots in Indonesia last year]. But Malaysianvoters have become more mature."

Despite the many similarities between the two countries,there are crucial differences that could work in the Barisan'sfavor. None of the main Indonesian opposition parties are advocatingan Islamic state, unlike Malaysia's opposition Islamic Party(PAS). Its avowed goal has made many Malaysians a little wary ofan opposition win.

Still, that has not stopped the main opposition parties fromworking together on a platform of justice, human rights, and goodgovernance.

Likewise, the Malaysian economy is undergoing hard times butnowhere near the shambles of the Indonesian economy. In fact, Mahathiris banking on a slight recovery this year to boost his coalition'selectoral chances.

Malaysia's own ''reformasi'' momentum may already be making morepeople believe that despite the immense odds, an upset of theruling coalition is possible. Recently, an Internet poll of some1,200 respondents showed that 35 percent expect the Barisan to bedefeated - up from 27 percent just a few months ago.

(Inter Press Service)

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