Asia Times: Questions grow about opposition leader's platform



	June 15, 1999	atimes.com

Southeast Asia

Questions grow about opposition leader's platform
By Kafil Yamin

JAKARTA - Now that the party of opposition leaderMegawati Sukarnoputri looks set to dominate Indonesia's newgovernment, attention is turning to how this potential leaderwould govern the country.

The 52-year-old ''Mega'' carries a heavy burden of history asthe daughter of the country's founding father, Sukarno, the firstpresident after independence from 350 years of Dutch colonialrule.

Critics dismiss the opposition leader, who shuns press interviews and has not detailed herplatform of government, as apolitical lightweight. They say she has been carried by a wave ofpopular affection for Sukarno in the wake of the fall of Suharto,who assumed power after a 1965 coup that ousted his predecessor.

Nostalgia for Sukarno, viewed as the one who pulled togetherIndonesia's islands into a nation, and attempts by Suharto to edgeMegawati out turned her into a symbol of defiance against Suharto,galvanizing support from the poor and the middle class.

Now her party, the Indonesian Democracy Party-Struggle (PDI-P)stands on the brink of becoming the largest single party in a newcoalition government likely to emerge from the June 7 historicpoll.

The latest official vote tallies show the PDI-P taking the leadwith 35 percent of the votes, followed by the ruling Golkar Partywith nearly 21 percent and the Muslim-based National AwakeningParty, a PDI-P ally, with about the same.

Megawati is also PDI-P's candidate for president in an indirect election that is scheduled for November. But even if PDI-P gets the majority of votes in the election,Megawati's chances at becoming Indonesia's fourth president remainto be seen, political experts say.

A party can be sure of victory for its presidential candidate only if it gains at least half the votes in the parliamentary election, said A.S. Hikam, political analyst at the State Institute of Science(LIPI).

It is unlikely that any one political party will get a majority of votes in the parliamentary election, which means a coalition government is practically assured.

Golkar, the unchallenged party during the last three decades,has already hinted at forming a coalition with other groups - afterconceding, based on its own counting, that it will ranksecond after PDI-P.

''We have not decided yet which party will be our coalitionpartner. But Golkar will enter a coalition,'' Golkar Chairman AkbarTanjung said.

With the growing prospects that any coalition could be led by Megawati, there is ambivalence about theopposition figure as a national leader.

Analysts agree that PDI-P has many talented people who couldplay a leading role in any new government. But they add thatMegawati has so far failed to take a clear stand on many issuesconfronting the country after Suharto's 32-year authoritarianrule, especially those that could mark a clear departure from oldpolitical culture.

''Does she really have the capability to govern? Does she evenhave the will to govern? Sometimes that seems in doubt, sometimesI have the impression that she deeply regrets going into politicsfive years ago,'' Marcus Mietzner, visiting fellow at the Centerfor Strategic and International Studies, said.

Megawati has often seemed ill at ease withthe adulation she has inspired.

Yet ''Megawati symbolises unity and the demand of an emerginggroup of people to have something new, some politicaldifference,'' said A.S. Hikam.

It is also unclear whether Megawati, the wealthy housewife whois a strong nationalist, would implement radical reforms for whichpeople have clamored since simmering resentment againstSuharto turned into huge street protests in May last year.

Megawati has come out in favor of maintaining the military'spolitical role, one that, for instance, entitles soldiers to appointiveparliamentary seats. Her position is likely to please the powerfularmy, but would dash the aspirations of many to separate the armyand the state.

She has also said she might stop a referendum on the future ofEast Timor from going ahead in August, arguing that Indonesia'sterritory should be preserved.

Still, a lot of time and many political negotiations lie aheadbefore a clear choice for president emerges.

Even if PDI-P emerges as the biggest bloc in the parliament,many factors mitigate against Megawati becoming the nextpresident, including the complex make-up of the country's highestbody, the People's Consultative Assembly.

The 700-member assembly, which will decide in November onIndonesia's next president and vice president, is made up of not onlyparliament members but also regional and sectoral representatives.

Parliament itself is not entirely composed of electedofficials. It has 462 elective seats and another 38 reserved for themilitary.

''Thus, the representatives elected on Monday will make up onlytwo-thirds of the body that chooses the president,'' Adam Schwarz,Indonesia analyst and author of the book ''A Nation in Waiting:Indonesia's Search for Stability,'' wrote in a commentary here.

There are other unclear issues surrounding a potential Megawati-led government.

During the campaign, some critics had begun questioning herqualifications to lead a Muslim-majority country. While somevoters welcomed Megawati's secular stand, other parties seized onthis to say she would not adequately look after Muslim concerns.

Schwarz says there might be more divisive arguments like thisespecially if the PDI-P gets less than 40 percent of the vote andGolkar comes in with 20 percent, and the ruling party tries toweaken support for PDI-P as jockeying for a coalition getsunderway.

''To be sure, such a campaign would set off a bruising,divisive debate in the coming months, and may well re-awaken long-dormant religions tensions,'' Schwarz wrote.

(Inter Press Service)

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