
| Southeast Asia
ANALYSIS: Climate of terror clouds UN accord on Timor By Sonny Inbaraj
DARWIN, Australia - In the current climate of fearand intimidation in East Timor, the deal signed Wednesday at theUnited Nations calling for a vote on the territory's future seems flawed.
Two questions are to be put to voters in the former Portugueseenclave on August 8, under a side accord for a ''consultation'' inwhich some 800,000 East Timorese can vote on whether to accept orreject an autonomy plan offered by Jakarta.
The first question is: ''Do you accept the proposal that EastTimor have special autonomy within the unitary state of theRepublic of Indonesia?"
The second: ''Do you reject the special autonomy proposal ofEast Timor, the consequence being that East Timor will separatefrom Indonesia?"
The ''special autonomy'' package, also signed Wednesday byIndonesia and Portugal, allows Jakarta to retain responsibilityfor defense and to keep its troops in East Timor.
Jakarta would also retain responsibility for monetary andfiscal policies.
But because the Indonesian military and police will remainresponsible for security during the polls, there is fear that thearmed forces will not be a neutral party to the ballot.
As pointed out by the International Federation for East Timor(IFET) in a letter to UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, delivered on the eveof the signing of the autonomy deal, it will be impossible for theUnited Nations to conduct a meaningful assessment of East Timoresepublic opinion if those forces - one party to the conflict -control the situation on the ground.
The Indonesian armed forces have made little effort to disarmand control the pro-integration militias they set up. They arewidely believed still to be arming, even funding, the groups thathave carried out massacres of refugees or pro-independencesupporters.
According to human rights monitors in East Timor's capital,Dili, Operation Sapu Bersih (Cleanup) is underway in theterritory. The aim of the army-supported militia is to ''cleanup'' independence supporters and kill or intimidate them intosupporting integration, they say.
''The tolerance of the militia terror campaign does not suggest'rogue elements' in the regional command, but top-down approval,''wrote Hamish McDonald, foreign editor of the Sydney MorningHerald.
''Watching events in East Timor in recent months has been akinto watching a murderer announce who he was going to kill, carryout the crime for all to see, walk past the police station wipingthe murder weapon and then reloading his gun,'' he argued.
In the lead-up to the ballot, the United Nations plans to sendbetween 800 and 900 people to East Timor, including some 300civilian police who will only carry side-arms, to monitor thepoll.
The exact number of UN monitors would only be clear once a UNassessment team returns from East Timor. Still, the size of UNpersonnel bound for East Timor is important.
''The size and authority of the police force is crucial. Threehundred is far too low to cover all the 13 districts in EastTimor, especially in the eastern part of the country where theinfrastructure is still minimal,'' said Aboeprijadi Santoso, anIndonesian radio journalist based in Amsterdam.
''The number required will also depend greatly on the way inwhich the ballot is conducted. If the voting takes placesimultaneously in all parts of the country, at least 3,000 policewill be needed, along with hundreds of UN personnel,'' addedSantoso.
Indonesian President Jusuf Bacharuddin Habibie wants civilianmonitors from Australia, the U.S., Germany (representing Europe),Japan and the Philippines to coordinate the ballot for the UN-sponsored vote on the autonomy plan.
But IFET, in its letter to the UN, said the countryrepresentation should be broader. ''All of these six countries,with the exception of the Philippines, have a long history ofsupplying weapons, training and/or money to support Indonesia'sillegal occupation of East Timor,'' said the Federation.
IFET suggests the inclusion of nations like Brazil, thelargest Latin American country, whose government has alreadyoffered to help; South Africa, as president of the Non-AlignedMovement; Mozambique; New Zealand; Fiji; Norway; Ireland; Thailand,and Canada.
Habibie, at the April Australia-Indonesia summit in Bali,promised to honor his pledge of independence if the East Timoresepeople reject autonomy on August 8.
But there could be complications even in this seemingly clearformula due to the timing of two of Indonesia's politicalexercises - it holds a general election on June 7, two monthsahead of the Aug. 8 East Timor vote.
This raises the question of what happens if the government thatcomes to power after the June poll does not agree to East Timor'sindependence.
Because of this, IFET wants a transitional UN government inEast Timor if a no vote is delivered on Aug. 8.
Added the group: ''The outcome of the consultation, in thecontext of international law and UN resolutions, must be followedthrough regardless of the results of the June Indonesian electionsand the composition of the new Indonesian Parliament."
(Inter Press Service)
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