April 24, 1999
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| April 24, 1999 | atimes.com | |
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| Southeast Asia ANALYSIS: Terrorist plot highlights Cambodia's difficulties STRATFOR's Global Intelligence Update April 22, 1999 Summary: Last weekend, Cambodian police arrested five alleged membersof the Cambodian Freedom Fighters who were trying to destroy afuel depot just north of Phnom Penh. The arrest of thesereported terrorists in light of the massive political andmilitary changes sweeping Cambodia draws attention to theunderlying difficulties associated with economic and socialreforms. While the Khmer Rouge may be gone, Cambodia still has along way to go before it achieves stability. Analysis: On April 20, Cambodian police announced they had captured fiveterrorists, foiling a plot to destroy one of Phnom Penh's largestfuel depots. Police reported they had captured the men, armedwith handguns and an anti-tank rocket, on April 18. The menconfessed that they were trying to destroy the Sokimex oilstorage depot, owned by the Sokimex Petroleum Company, which isaffiliated with Hun Sen's Cambodian People's Party. They havebeen identified as members of the small militant organizationknown as the Cambodian Freedom Fighters. According to Phnom Penh Municipal Police Chief Ek Kreth, theCambodian Freedom Fighters, founded by a Cambodian-American,Chhun Yasith, first surfaced following Hun Sen's coup in 1997.At that time, the group issued statements calling for increasedattacks against Hun Sen's forces, but faded away following theformation of a coalition government last year. Ek Krethemphasized, ''They are a terrorist group.'' Another police officerwarned, ''This is a big problem. We're following another groupassociated with the group we arrested." The reemergence of this group exemplifies the difficultiesCambodia faces as it attempts to emerge from years of civil war.With the final end of fighting against organized Khmer Rougeguerrillas, Cambodia was able to shift focus from fightinginternal rebel armies to the daunting task of social, economic,and infrastructure reform. Underlying this, however, was a largeportion of the population from all sectors, formerly engaged inwar but now facing unemployment. In fact, the government hasbegun a new push to thin out its oversized armed forces, cutting70,000 soldiers over the next five years. Cambodia is also awashin easily accessible weapons, from guns and ammunition torockets, grenades, and mines. Chhun Yasith, an opposition figure, started the Cambodian FreedomFighters with the specific political purpose of targeting Hun Senand his forces following the 1997 coup. While issuing statementscalling for an increase in attacks against Hun Sen, the groupremained largely unnoticed, and disappeared following theformation of a coalition between Prince Norodom Ranariddh and HunSen. The Cambodian Freedom Fighters have now returned, thoughpolice say Chhun Yasith may not be involved with the latestaction. The attempted attack on the oil depot on Sunday may be just aforetaste of what Cambodia faces in the future. With a historyof political forces using militant actions to achieve theirgoals, and as coalitions are formed and Cambodia refocuses on itseconomic future, many of these groups are finding themselves leftbehind by the changing role of their political leaders. Whilethe larger groups like the Khmer Rouge and the Royalist Armyforces that broke away to support Ranariddh after the coup arebeing reintegrated into the military, the smaller groups are notbeing included. As well, with the downsizing of the military,even more will find themselves outside of the armed forces. Itis likely that these dispossessed soldiers and officers willincreasingly reform themselves into freelance militant orterrorist organizations. This was already seen earlier this yearwhen former Khmer Rouge units began kidnapping for ransom money. The easy availability of weapons and trained soldiers in Cambodiamakes the situation particularly volatile. While there is nolonger a main organized opposition or rebel army, many of theseformerly politically useful militant groups are now faced witheither unemployment or freelancing their services. Small-scaleterrorist actions, likely connected with extortion and ransom,are likely to continue, thereby threatening uncertainty andvolatility for Cambodia as it tries to cope with economic andpolitical reforms. ___________________________________________________ STRATFOR, Inc. 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-583-5000 Fax: 512-583-5025 Internet:http://www.stratfor.com/ Email:info@stratfor.com | |||||||||
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