
| Southeast Asia
Anwar verdict coming but saga continues By Anil Netto
PENANG, Malaysia - The political saga featuringsacked deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim peaks on April 6, when the judgein his five-month trial will decide whether he is guilty of tryingto influence police probes into charges of sexual misconductagainst him.
But even after that day, Malaysia's political epic promises tocontinue.
On Sunday, two days before the verdict is due, Anwar's supporters in the'reformasi' movement are set to launch a new political party tochallenge the government.
Anwar has repeatedly said the charges against him in court werepart of a high-level conspiracy stemming from his rivalry withMahathir - and not really about his supposed efforts to interferewith justice or alleged sexual offenses.
Thus far, Anwar has resigned himself to his fate, saying heexpects to be found guilty and jailed for a few years. Ifconvicted, the former heir-apparent to Prime Minister MahathirMohamad could be sentenced for up to 14 years.
And even if acquitted, Anwar's worries are not over: anothercharge of corruption and five counts of sodomy, which carry a jailterm of up to 20 years and whipping, lie in wait for him.
There has been a string of decisions unfavorable to Anwar's defense. For instance, judge Augustine Paul struck out an application byAnwar's lawyers last week for him to step down as the presidingjudge, calling it ''ridiculous."
The lawyers filed the application after Paul consistentlyrefused to consider Anwar's argument that certain top-levelpolitical personalities fabricated the charges against him todestroy his career.
What was relevant, the judge had said, was whether Anwar didindeed influence police investigations and not whether there was apolitical conspiracy to oust him, or whether Anwar was actuallyguilty of sexual misconduct.
As the legal battle continues about Anwar's supposed efforts tointerfere with justice, activists have been trying to maintain themomentum of opposition to Mahathir outside the courtroom.
On Dec 10, the new Social Justice Movement (ADIL) was launched,providing the middle path for disgruntled Malaysians who may notbe particularly enamoured by the mainly Chinese-based but multi-ethnic Democratic Action Party (DAP) or the Pan-Malaysian IslamicParty (PAS).
With a general election due by mid-2000 - analysts think itcould come much earlier - Anwar's supporters do not want to becaught napping and realize they need to enter the political fray.
But their dilemma is if they apply for a new party to beregistered, there is no guarantee that the Mahathir administrationwill approve it before the coming election. ADIL is not apolitical party, so they are looking at alternatives.
They are likely to use an existing dormant party, which wouldassume a new name: the National Justice Party. ''It is associatedwith the reformasi movement,'' says Chandra Muzaffar, who isdeputy to Anwar's wife and ADIL head Wan Azizah Wan Ismail. ''Ithink it is something that people want."
Chandra and Azizah have been addressing large crowds across thecountry.
On Mar 25, at a rain-swept rural village in Alor Star, capitalof northern Kedah state, Chandra, Azizah and PAS president FadzilNoor spoke to a crowd of rural ethnic Malays.
A foreign news report said 20,000 people turned up, but Chandraclaims it was more like 50,000 or 60,000 people, despite badweather, in an area not far from Mahathir's home constituency ofKubang Pasu.
Still, Chandra admits, it is difficultto gauge if such support for reforms and change can be translatedinto votes in the general election.
Voters, especially the ethnic Chinese who make up a quarter ofMalaysia's 21 million people, may be reluctant to vote for theopposition if they think it would lead to instability.
Besides, Mahathir has shown in the recent Sabah election -which his ruling coalition won with a 31-17 seat majority - thathe still commands a daunting political machinery after 18 years inpower.
But voters might yet be enticed to the opposition side by a new party treading the middle path, especially a multi-ethnic party led by respected individuals who areperceived to be clean and above communal politicking.
Anti-government leaders hope the NJP can bind togetherMalaysia's disparate opposition parties into a credible force.''It could give hope for the formation of a new combinedopposition front,'' social activist Jubal Lourdes says of the NJP.
''If the Malays are uncomfortable with PAS or the DAP, they nowhave an alternative,'' Lourdes says. ''And after the way thestruggle has evolved, it is likely that ordinary people will bethe main focus of the new party's struggle for justice."
(Inter Press Service)
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