February 26, 1999
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| February 26, 1999 | atimes.com | |
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| Southeast Asia Reports of arms shipments overshadow Philippines talks Global Intelligence Update Red Alert February 25, 1999 Summary: Philippine President Joseph Estrada suspended peace talks withcommunist rebels on February 24, immediately prior to hisscheduled visit to the southern Philippines. Estrada is toengage in peace talks on Mindanao later in the week with MoroIslamic Liberation Front (MILF) Chief Hashim Salamat. A cease-fire is in place between the government and the MILF, butalthough low-level contacts were resumed to bring the fighting toan end, repeated skirmishes have continued. Adding to theintensity of the situation, Philippine government sources onFebruary 21 charged that the MILF was waiting for a massive armsshipment, allegedly purchased with funds provided by Saudidissident Osama bin Laden. These two developments, specificallythe breakdown in peace talks between Manila and the communistrebels, and reports of arms shipments to the MILF, do not bodewell for securing peace soon in the southern Philippines. Analysis: Manila has suspended peace talks with the communist New People'sArmy (NPA) after the NPA abducted engineering brigade commanderGeneral Victor Obillo and his logistics officer, Captain EduardoMontealto, near the southern city of Davao last week, and seizedChief Police Inspector Roberto Bernal in the eastern province ofSorsogon on February 21. The estimated strength of the NPA isaround 7,000. In response to these provocations, PhilippinePresident Estrada also suspended the planned release of 50detained guerrillas and said that military operations would beconducted against the kidnappers ''even though these may endangerthe lives of the officers." Against the backdrop of increasing hostilities between thegovernment and the NPA, Philippine President Estrada is scheduledto meet later in the week with the head of the Moro IslamicLiberation Front (MILF), Hashim Salamat, in an effort toaccelerate peace negotiations. The MILF is fighting for aseparate Islamic state in Mindanao, the Philippines' mainsouthern island, which the country's Moslem minority claims astheir ancestral homeland. The group formed as a splinter groupof the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), which signed apeace agreement in 1996 that created a limited Autonomous Regionof Moslem Mindanao (ARMM). The MILF is backed by an estimated12,000 guerrillas, and has been gaining support from disgruntledMNLF members as Manila has failed to live up to its economicpromises to the ARMM. Ongoing sporadic fighting between the MILF and government forces,which has overshadowed the peace process, broke out again onFebruary 20 in the Philippine province of Maguindanao. MILFforces attacked seven military detachments, seriously woundingtwo soldiers and breaching a shaky cease-fire agreement.Galvanizing the Philippine government to come to terms with theMILF is an alleged shipment of arms that, as reported by AgenceFrance Presse on February 22, was purchased with funds providedby Osama bin Laden's organization. The report cited rebelsources as claiming that the arms cache consisted of ''some 3,000high-powered weapons, (that) would be delivered aboard a foreignvessel to Surabaya in Indonesia from where it would be escortedby MILF officials to Sabah, Malaysia... [The cache] would then betransported to remote coastal areas near here [Digos] and innearby Saranggani at a still undisclosed date." The MILF vice-chairman for military affairs, Mohammad Murad, onFebruary 22 denied that the MILF was receiving funds to buy armsfrom foreign organizations. Murad insisted, ''As far as the MILFis concerned, we are not expecting any arms shipment from otherorganizations particularly those controlled by Osama bin Laden.''Bin Laden stopped sending financial aid to the MILF after hebecame ''very much involved in the Afghan war,'' Murad said,insisting that what funds the MILF had received from bin Ladenhad gone to ''developmental projects.'' Murad went on to say thatthe reports of the arms shipment to the rebels could be amilitary ploy to discredit the MILF. The Agence France Presse report went on to cite Philippine navalintelligence sources in Manila that not only confirmed thelikelihood of a shipment, but also stressed that the MILF hadalso received funds from Libya and Brunei last week. ThePhilippine navy has reportedly deployed several ships in coastalareas in Saranggani and in Davao del Sur to intercept the allegedshipment. Additional weight was given to the reported armsshipment on February 24, when ''Radio Republic of Indonesia''reported that the Tanjungperak Port Authority in Tanjungperak,Indonesia, claimed to be ''monitoring the planned arrival of MVAlkeen Perdaba, which is believed to be carrying 3,000 anti-tankrockets from Afghanistan to Muslim Moros in the Philippines.''One oddity here is why Indonesian radio would broadcast reportsof the anticipated arrival of an arms shipment bound for thePhilippines. We would expect such knowledge to pass throughproper channels and to be withheld until the vessel wasapprehended. This report could be mere propaganda, but fromwhom, directed at whom, and for what reason? If these reports of weapons shipments are anything more thanPhilippine government propaganda, then Estrada will be undergreat pressure to achieve real progress in his talks with theMILF. This holds especially true in the aftermath of thesuspension of peace talks with the NPA and in light of increasingdefections to the MILF by MNLF members. Should anything close to3,000 rocket propelled grenades reach the MILF, the PhilippineArmy, already battling the NPA, may find its hands full. ___________________________________________________ STRATFOR, Inc. 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-583-5000 Fax: 512-583-5025 Internet:http://www.stratfor.com/ Email:info@stratfor.com | |||||||||
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