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| March 9, 2001 | atimes.com | ||
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Special Reports
China's railways on the fast track By Tony Allison Introduction After taking a ride in Germany on a test stretch of a high-speed magnetic levitation (maglev) rail link, Chinese Prime Minister Zhu Rongji commented that he had felt a little dizzy. And he is not the only one feeling a bit light-headed when it comes to railway transportation in China, which has the biggest network in Asia. The numbers are staggeringly large, as are the opportunities. For 2001, the Ministry of Railways (MOR) has budgeted a total investment in railway construction of 55 billion renminbi (US$6.65 billion). The figure includes 49.9 billion renminbi to be provided by the MOR, covering 21 projects. New railway lines will increase the existing 38,000 kilometers by 2,183 kilometers, while double-track lines will expand by 1,172 km and electrified lines by 2,824 km. Railway construction investment totaled 51.69 billion renminbi in 2000, with expansion of new railway lines totaling 988 km and new electrified lines totaling 538 km. In the past five years China has invested 246 billion renminbi in the construction of 5,700 km of new lines, 4,100 km of dual lines and the electrifying of 4,300 km of existing lines. The railway sector produced income of 109.6 billion renminbi in 2000 from its cargo and passenger business, up 9.6 percent from 1999, recording a profit of approximately 500 million renminbi. Turnover in the five years up to the end of 2000 was 1,907.8 billion passenger-kilometers, 14.7 percent higher than the previous five-year period. There was a turnover of 6,409.1 billion-kilometers of cargo, up 7.4 percent. China's railway transportation sector is financed by government budget; revenue is handed to the MOR and expenditures funded by the MOR's fiscal allocation. China's railway authorities are considering the separation of railway construction and management from transportation services. Several passenger and cargo transportation companies, as well as a railway network company, are to be established to break up the existing integration of railway network management and transportation services. The railway network company will be in charge of railway construction, railway network distribution and command giving, while passenger and cargo transportation companies will become independent entities specializing in transportation services. China will open its railway cargo service sector to foreign competition once it enters the World Trade Organization, most likely at the end of this year. On the fast track In addition to the development of its present lines, in March last year the MOR announced a preliminary development plan for China's 21st century high-speed railway system: Full speed between Beijing and Shanghai The jewel in the high-speed development program is the proposed fast link between Beijing and Shanghai, which would cut travelling time by about two hours to four hours. The 1,463 km line, with an estimated cost of $15 billion, is among a number of major rail projects to be implemented in the country's 2001-2005 five-year economic plan. In December of last year, the MOR announced the completion of a critical analysis regarding the railway. However, crucially, it did not decide whether the train will be a wheel-and-track line, such as those in Japan and France, or a maglev magnetic suspension train, as in the one to be used in the Shanghai airport link. The French TGV high speed rail and the Japanese Shinkansen systems are competing with the maglev option. German Railways hopes it can sell China its magnetic suspension technology. The Japanese possess "bullet" train technology, while other rivals of German Railways include Alstom of France and Germany's Siemens, whose blueprint is the traditional wheel-rail high-speed railway system primarily based on French TGV technology and German Inter City Express (ICE) technology. The MOR says it will consider various means to fund the project, and ultimately will choose the lowest-cost financing. It has also said it will employ "the most advanced technology in the world" in its construction, although experts point out that if China opts for magnetic suspension, all technologies and equipment will have to be imported. But if the wheel-rail mode is adopted, China should be able to provide its own equipment within a few years, which will also promote the development of related science and technology. The chances of China opting for a maglev link improved in late January when the German consortium Transrapid sealed its first commercial contract to build such as railway, connecting Pudong International Airport in Shanghai with the city center, a distance of 30 km. The consortium, a partnership between the German government and industrial backers ThyssenKrupp AG and Siemens AG, did not say how much it would be paid for the project, which could be worth billions of dollars. The present railway linking Beijing and Shanghai is one of the busiest passenger and cargo transport routes in China. The volume of passenger and cargo transport on the line is 5.5 times and 4.3 times the national average respectively. The line could be maintained for another 10 to 20 years, but it could meet only 50 percent of the demand for passenger and cargo transport. Proponents of the magnetic option say that after 100-plus years of development, traditional railways have reached speeds of 300-350 km/hr, which is as fast as they will ever go. Magnetic suspension trains, they say, will not depend on fuel and will thus overcome the main handicap of traditional wheel-rail railways, and they will reach speeds of 500 km/hr. The high-speed link has been on the drawing board for more than 10 years and has engendered much controversy. At the Third Plenary Session of the Ninth National Political Consultative Conference in March 2000, some members questioned the need, construction costs, and operating costs for the line, and recommended the project be put on hold. Those opposed to this scheme are mainly experts from the Academy of Railway Sciences under the MOR, who say wheel-rail railways are the most practical and that magnetic suspension is just a science fiction dream belonging to "futurists and adventurers". They point out that apart from the proposed Shanghai link, there is no commercially operated magnetic suspension railway in the world. Last year, the German government abandoned plan to build a 292 km magnetic suspension railway between Berlin and Hamburg. They say that Japan has conducted research on magnetic suspension technology for over 30 years. Its low-temperature, super-conducting technology is more advanced than German technology and also accommodates a huge passenger flow of 13 million person-times, yet, they argue, Japan does not yet operate a single magnetic suspension railway line. The fundamental problem with magnetic suspension lines, they say, is their incompatibility with existing railways - something they see as a fatal flaw. It is calculated that two thirds of the passenger trains on the Beijing-Shanghai railway come from other lines, such as the Shenyang-Tianjin and Lanzhou (Gansu province)-Lianyungang (Jiangsu province) railways. Somehow, and at a cost, these would have to be integrated. Researchers at the Academy of Railway Sciences say that the construction of magnetic suspension railways would cost 50 to 100 percent more than for wheel-rail railways, but the transport capacity would be at least 50 percent lower. They argue that the ticket price of magnetic suspension trains would be about 1.8-2.4 times higher than the cost of an airfare, while regular train fares are 60 percent the cost of airfares. ((c)2001 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.) |
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