Asia Times: Oceania


	June 13, 2002	atimes.com

Oceania

Australian military marches toward strong Asia ties
By Alan Boyd

SYDNEY - Australia's security ties with Asia are expected to strengthen after a shakeup in the armed forces leadership and a commitment to spend more on regional defense cooperation.

Army chief Lieutenant-General Peter Cosgrove, who earlier gained wide accolades as the commander of an international peacekeeping force in East Timor, was named as the new head of the armed forces. His deputy will be Rear Admiral Russ Shalders, while Major-General Peter Leahy and Rear-Admiral Chris Ritchie will lead the army and navy respectively. Of the top echelon, only air force chief Air Marshal Angus Houston retained his post.

The changes were routine, but nonetheless have heavy political overtones. Serving military commander-in-chief Admiral Chris Barrie had sought an extension, but was apparently rebuffed, as were navy chief Vice Admiral David Shackleton and Barrie's deputy, Lieutenant-General Des Mueller. All three played central roles in supporting pre-election claims by the governing coalition that Asian boat people had thrown their children overboard in a desperate bid to obtain asylum in Australia. After they were disproved, the allegations ruptured relations between forces chiefs and the officer corps, and with the government. Cosgrove was one of the few top military figures to emerge unscathed from the row.

A no-nonsense leader with little tolerance of political interference, Cosgrove has spent most of his career in command posts, while taking pains to avoid head office staff appointments. Very popular with the ranks, he earned a military cross within a month of graduating from Duntroon Military Academy in 1968, when he led his patrol on an attack on a bunker system under heavy fire. After Vietnam, Cosgrove had a succession of operational and training positions that included a key role in the development of special forces units. He attended marine and officer training courses in the United States, Britain and India and was appointed army chief in late 2000.

Cosgrove's commitment to Asia became clear after he was named in 1999 as head of the International Force in East Timor (INTERFET) transitional force that restored law and order in East Timor before the arrival of a United Nations administration. He was instrumental in the decision by several Association of Southeast Asian (ASEAN) states to send troops in support of INTERFET, and backed the appointment of a Thai officer as his deputy.

In the first public address after being named Australia's armed forces chief, Cosgrove - now promoted to a full general - went a step further by stressing the importance of improved cultural understanding with Asia. It is "impossible to overstate the case for expanding our collective knowledge of the languages and customs of our neighbors", he said, though there are no plans to teach Asian languages as part of basic military training.

Joint efforts to combat terrorism, backed by a hefty government funding boost, will be the initial plank for stronger security ties within the region. Most of an additional A$711 million (US$405 million) approved for defense in the latest national budget will go toward counter-terrorism, on top of A$1.1 billion that was dispensed in February to send troops to Afghanistan. Troop deployments in Afghanistan and detachments of naval and air support in the Persian Gulf and Kyrgyzstan will consume the bulk of operational funds.

However, capital equipment investment, much of it with a definite regional capability, will also get priority as part of efforts to project a more forward defense strategy. The budget allocation for equipment will rise from A$3.5 billion in 2002-01 to A$4.1 billion in the coming fiscal year. A tentative commitment was given to the procurement of three new destroyers with an air-warfare role by 2013, although most of the funding will actually come from future budgets.

Six guided-missile frigates are being refitted with more advanced weaponry, as is a submarine fleet. The last of six frigates being built jointly with New Zealand is also scheduled for completion.

Air force F-18 Hornet fighters used for frontline defense are being re-armed with advanced short-range (ASRAAM) and medium-range (AMRAAM) air-to-air missiles to counter deliveries of more modern Russian and European aircraft within the region. Studies will also be commissioned for the eventual upgrading or replacement of the F-18s, as well as several aging squadrons of F-111 fighter-bombers that will be obsolete by the end of the decade.

While they were undoubtedly motivated by the global terrorism threat, the allocations have helped diminish concerns that the Australian government might back away from the positive findings of its 2000 defense review, which put a particular emphasis on security links with Asia. The first new policy initiative since 1985, the review proposed a sharp deviation from the home-defense strategy adopted since the 1970s, with significantly more resources being deployed offshore.

This had already being happening at a peacekeeping level: since 1987, Australian troops have served in Namibia, the Persian Gulf, Fiji, Somalia, the Sinai, Rwanda, Western Sahara, Papua New Guinea, Cambodia, Irian Jaya and East Timor. There are currently 2,000 Australian servicemen based overseas, compared with only a few hundred in the entire decade following the withdrawal of Australian troops from Vietnam in 1972.

In Southeast Asia, the region of primary interest, Australia is a member of the Five Power Defense Arrangement, which entails a commitment to support the security of Singapore and Malaysia. Similar understandings are being sought with Thailand and the Philippines and possibly - in the longer term - with Vietnam. Thai troops already train alongside Australian forces, and Bangkok is seeking help in modernizing its army.

While the Australian government has stressed that the defense force will not be restructured to confront offshore threats to regional stability, the review's analysis of potential pockets of instability leaves little doubt that a forward capability is desired. Heading the list of perceived risks are a potential boilover of ethnic tension on the Indonesian archipelago and a social fallout from slower economic growth in Southeast Asia. On a wider level, Canberra is anxiously watching the prickly relationship among China, Japan and the US.

Naval and air capability was a central facet of the review, with a recommendation that A$3.5 billion be invested annually in maritime upgrades during the next decade and A$1.3 billion on air combat. Included in the mooted air-force overhaul are the acquisition of early-warning and control aircraft and the replacement of air-to-air refueling planes that would allow fighters to operate farther from home.

Overall defense spending would have to rise by an average of 3 percent annually to meet these and other commitments, equivalent to combined spending of A$23.5 billion over a period of 10 years. Yet the review amounted only to a capability plan and did not make any promises on funding beyond the next budget, partly because Canberra is locked into 12-monthly finances. There is nothing to bind future governments to this plan, or even to prevent the current leadership from backing away once the immediate terrorism threat has eased.

For all of the fanfare over spending increases, the budget increase was still slightly below the level needed to meet the 10-year target, though it exceeds this goal if the intermediate allocation from February is included.

Equally, the current force is so under-manned and ill-equipped that its ability to meet the political objectives for a regional presence will be questionable until the higher cash allocations come through. Departures from the three services are running at the rate of 13 percent a year, despite a 52 percent increase in recruiting during 2000-01. Poor pay and conditions are the main grievances.

The navy's blue-water fleet lacks air cover and logistical support due to the lack of a carrier. Missile frigates rely on outdated weaponry, and the new class of submarines has noise problems that make them easy to detect.

At least 20 percent of the frontline fighters are experiencing maintenance problems due to their average age of 25 years. In the land forces, only one full brigade can be deployed at a time, and there is a single artillery regiment and a single armored regiment for the entire army.

But perhaps the biggest shortcoming is in counter-terrorism, for which the army admits it has little operational capability, despite a massive overhaul of intelligence services for the 2000 Olympic Games in Sydney. Previously, this threat had been viewed as a civil matter.

Cosgrove has not joined the political debate, but contended in a speech last month that it was simplistic and "unhelpful" to dwell on potential threats. Rather, the defense force should prepare for any eventuality by looking at its own capabilities, and by ensuring that it has the means to present an adequate deterrence to hostile groups, he said.

Defense insiders say that this stance, typical of Cosgrove's uncompromising attitude toward the equipping and training of a professional force, will be the hallmark of his three-year tenure.

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