Asia Times: Unhappy birthday: Is the summit sunk?


	June 13, 2001	atimes.com

The Koreas

PYONGYANG WATCH
Unhappy birthday: Is the summit sunk?
By Aidan Foster-Carter

This week marks the anniversary of last June's historic first ever inter-Korean summit talks. A year on, no one is partying much. Even the low-key, semi-official fun at Hyundai's Mount Kumgang tourist zone is marred by a row over invitations to Hanchongryon and Pomminyon: radical pro-Pyongyang groups still illegal in the South as "enemy-benefitting organizations" under Seoul's National Security Law (NSL). The as-yet unrevised NSL is but one sign of the ambiguity - friend or foe? - still bedeviling North-South ties.

Right now there's not a lot to celebrate. The peace process launched a year ago with such a fanfare of hope has been stalled for three months, Pyongyang's pretext being the new Bush hard line. It's a poor excuse - why should Koreans make their relations hostage to Washington's whim? - yet a predictable reaction, which the US should have foreseen when it chose to suspend its own engagement approach.

Happy or not, anniversaries are a time to pause and reflect. How different it all felt a year ago. This was the moment 70 million Koreans had waited for for half a century. Hopes had been raised before, only to be dashed. Three inter-Korean "breakthroughs" - in 1972, 1985, and 1991 - turned into false dawns. Even a summit was fixed for July 1994 - but Kim Il-sung dropped dead, and enmity resumed.

Against this background of mistrust, it took Pyongyang two years to respond to Kim Dae-jung's olive branch. Nor were those years plain sailing. If we're talking anniversaries, June 15 marks not only last year's joint declaration - but the day two years ago when the Koreas fought their first naval battle since 1953. It was brief (just 10 minutes) and decisive. After a week of Northern crab-fishing boats - backed up by the Korean People's Army (KPA) - crossing the Northern Limit Line (NLL, the maritime DMZ), the South Korean navy was fired on while ramming the intruders. Withering return fire sank a Northern patrol boat - up to 80 crew died - and crippled several more. War did not break out. Indeed, Pyongyang made surprisingly little fuss.

A year on, tension of a more positive kind grew in the weeks after the summit was announced. Was it for real this time? A last-minute nail-biter was when Pyongyang suddenly postponed everything by 24 hours: Would they call it off? But they didn't. It finally happened - and went better than anyone dared hope. We know now that behind the scenes all was not smooth. Kim Jong-il's surprise appearance at the airport was a bid to waft his guest off to Dead Dad's mausoleum; but DJ wasn't having that, even when JI threatened to abort the summit there and then. They played hardball - but they kept the ball in play.

And then for several months they built solidly on the sketchy paper they'd signed. A quick checklist includes: four rounds of cabinet-level talks; three family reunions, plus a letter exchange; an economic deal; a defense ministers' meeting; agreement and the start of work to reopen road and rail links; and a vast new industrial estate granted to Hyundai near Kaesong. Not a bad nine months' work. Yet with it all now frozen, there are ominous echoes of the past. In 1986 and again in 1990-92, meetings were held, agreements were signed - but when it came to the crunch, Pyongyang wouldn't commit and pulled out.

So is history repeating itself? Not quite, and not yet. One big difference this time is that governments no longer monopolize the inter-Korean process - so the official freeze doesn't stop business, NGOs, or private citizens forging their own ties. Thus Seoul dotcoms are signing up Pyongyang's programmers, while new maize seeds bred by "Dr Corn" - Kim Soon-kwon, a Southern crop scientist - grow in 5,000 North Korean villages. And local governments are still talking. In Kangwon province, bisected by the DMZ, the South in April released young salmon into Northern streams. On June 7 they sent a team to spray insecticide on pine trees at Mount Kumgang to try to stop a gall midge disease crossing the border.

Low-key stuff, but it gives hope. So does last week's news that the United States is at last ready to resume talks with North Korea - prompted, said the New York Times, by a word from Bush Sr in his lad's ear. Kim Jong-il must envy that. A pity that half a year and much momentum have been lost; it may take as long again to rebuild trust. Pyongyang pride precludes coming running as soon as the United States snaps its fingers. They may argue about rank or venue: Seoul's ambassador in Washington criticized the idea of starting with low-level talks at the United Nations as back to square one. Then there's the agenda. Nukes and missiles are tough enough, so why does the United States suddenly want to discuss conventional forces? One at a time, folks.

More good news came from Hyundai (now that's rare) at the weekend. After months of turning a deaf ear to Hyundai's pleas to cut fees for their loss-making tour cruises, the North agreed - and okayed a far cheaper land route. But don't cheer yet: this will take time. Meanwhile, Pyongyang is provoking Seoul by having its merchant fleet take short cuts via Southern waters. Couldn't they ask first? So is the land corridor for real, or just another ruse to start something but then back off? Kim Jong-il would be dumb to pull that one again. A year on from the summit, he should grasp the nettle and go forward. Will he?

((c)2001 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)yongyang Watch" column for Asia Times Online

back to the top

©2001 Asia Times Online Co., Ltd.

Building B - 5th Floor, 102/1 Phra Arthit Road, Chanasangkhram, Bangkok 10200, Thailand