Asia Times: PYONGYANG WATCH : An outbreak of real politics


	January 17, 2001	atimes.com

The Koreas

PYONGYANG WATCH
An outbreak of real politics
By Aidan Foster-Carter

One of North Korea's many paradoxes is that, in what is by any standards a highly politicized society, real politics is mostly kept carefully hidden. Instead public politics is presented as theater or spectacle, with endlessly repeated paeans of praise to the Dear Leader - behind whom all are said to be united.

It's mind-numbing stuff - spare a thought for those of us who have to wade through it, day after day - and all the more annoying because of course there is real politics in Pyongyang, kept well out of sight. No society can function without politics. At a minimum there are policy decisions to be made. Lenin's stark question - what is to be done? - arises anew, every day. Nor, despite the rhetoric, can the correct decision simply be deduced from Juche theory. It requires hard thinking - and fierce argument.

Never more so than now, when North Korea faces momentous choices. At home, will Kim Jong-il at last bite the bullet and embrace market reforms, without which his economy will continue to tank and his people to starve? Abroad, will last year's outreach to South Korea and other foes - a breakthrough, yet only a first step - accelerate into an irreversible peace process, with tangible steps to disarmament?

Behind the mask of unity, in smoke-filled rooms, North Korea's leaders must ponder these questions. Both sides of each argument will have doughty defenders. Diehards fear reform means collapse - look at the USSR - and favor a hawkish posture. Reformers believe just as fervently that it is the old hard line which risks collapse. They want to make peace and make money, or at least go the way of China.

This is no abstract debate, but a matter of life and death for North Korea. Now the argument is coming to a head. Pyongyang media are hard to read (in every sense) at the best of times, and there is no overt debate. But different articles recently have taken such contrary lines that it is impossible not to notice.

On January 1, as always, Pyongyang's party, army, and youth newspapers published a joint editorial setting tasks for the year ahead. As usual, the tone was mostly old-style and militant: boasting that "the Korean people have decorated annals of revolution with victories under the red flag of socialism", and pledging that the policy of "giving top priority to the army will remain unchanged in the future too". Economic tasks were emphasized, but with no hint of reform. Though the North-South summit received pro forma support, the general tone was to stress the need for continued adherence to the old ways.

Contrast this with a keynote speech by Yang Hyong-sop, vice president of the DPRK presidium, at a "Meeting for the Independent Reunification of the Korean Nation" on January 10. Again, North Korea normally holds such a meeting at this time, and usually its tenor is propagandist and critical of Seoul. Yang duly touched a few such bases, calling South Korea's National Security Law "an outdated relic".

But that is mild by past standards. Strikingly, Yang's main message called for speeding up the new ties with the South, especially family reunions, and for "prompt" Red Cross talks on this - now fixed for the end of January. That is quite a change from recent foot-dragging. Whereas in August Kim Jong-il said there could be monthly reunions henceforth, in the event there has only been one more, in November.

Could there be those in Pyongyang, as in Seoul, who fear too fast a rapprochement? Yes indeed - and Yang addressed them with rare directness. "Comrades, no one should hesitate to implement or ignore the North-South Joint Declaration. Furthermore, he should not do anything that deters this." Could he mean the military? Unusually for a major function, not a single military figure was listed as present. No mention here of the red flag or army-first politics. Instead the emphasis was all on unification - and on "Comrade Kim Jong-il's sophisticated leadership" - an unusual adjective - in taking it forward.

All sides in these debates praise the Leader: that is de rigueur. But where does he himself really stand? Despite authoring many works in defense of rigid socialism, he was cited recently by the party paper Nodong Sinmun as calling on his people to develop a new way of thinking. On the issues, Kim Jong-il has clearly shown of late that he is ready to explore a new relationship with South Korea and the US.

And reform? At long last, Kim may be about to come out on the side of the angels here too. Last week I heard a tip that he would soon visit China again: not just Beijing this time but also Shanghai, with an agenda centered on how to implement Chinese-style market reforms. On Monday (January 15) several Seoul papers carried this story, anticipating this trip in the spring - except for the JoongAng Ilbo, which quoted a southern government source as saying the Dear Leader had gone to Beijing that very day. By the time you read this, that may be confirmed. If it is, then North Korea is at last irrevocably headed on the road to reform. But the hawks may not be finished yet. The struggle continues. Watch this space.

(Special to Asia Times Online)

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