| | | | |
| April 4, 2000 | atimes.com | ||
|  | The Koreas PYONGYANG WATCH Who are you calling 'rational'? By Bradley Martin Various theories have been ventured on why North Korea recently issued unilateral navigation orders for the area around five disputed islands in the Yellow Sea. The move was a follow-up to another unilateral announcement last September rejecting the Northern Limit Line, which had been in effect since the end of the Korean War, and insisting that the five islands are North Korean territory. Here are some of the theories: * Pyongyang is hoping for a violent incident so it can have another crack at the South Korean Navy, which defeated North Korean naval ships in a skirmish in the same area last June. With the fiftieth anniversary of the start of the Korean War coming up in June, the North wants to flex its muscles and show off the results of its ongoing military buildup. * What's involved is not a provocation so much as a device to give Pyongyang bargaining power in talks with South Korea and the US and to test its adversaries' intentions. Specifically, South Korean Foreign Minister Lee Joung-binn said the move was intended to test South Korean President Kim Dae-jung's ''sunshine policy'' of North-South reconciliation. * With the South Koreans electing the National Assembly on April 13, Pyongyang saw a good chance to stir the pot in the hope the Southern political parties would attack each other over North Korean affairs and perhaps create instability. (The parties did just that, with the largest opposition body, Grand National Party, attacking the sunshine policy and demanding its revision.) * Directing the North Korean navigation order at the Americans and ignoring the South Koreans was intended to remind South Koreans that Pyongyang considers the Seoul government an American puppet regime - and to encourage more people in the South to join in that view and demand the Americans' departure. * The disputed area is rich in crabs, and North Korea wants its fishermen to catch more of them at the expense of South Korean fishermen. (Remember that the naval gunfight last June erupted during crab-fishing season.) Which theory is right? The answer is most likely ''most of the above''. It's probably necessary to choose between the first (provocation) and second (negotiating tool) theories. Because Pyongyang's navigation order permits access to the islands from the South through designated channels, the consensus seems to lean toward the latter. The incident ''indicates North Korea is still a difficult counterpart to deal with'', said South Korean Foreign Minister Lee. Or as one press account of his remarks put it, the North is ''inscrutable''. That's just what they love to hear in Pyongyang, where unpredictablity has long been basic to the regime's negotiating tactics. But those are quite rational tactics according to Scott Snyder, author of a recent study of the subject, Negotiating on the Edge: North Korean Negotiating Behavior. ''Contrary to the views of many external observers who evaluate North Korean behavior on the basis of their own expectations, North Korea's approach to negotiations is not characterized by 'irrationality' or craziness but rather is highly regularlized and internally consistent,'' Snyder writes. The latest episode seems to fit into what Snyder terms ''crisis diplomacy''. Summing up a series of US-North Korean negotiations since 1994, he writes: ''American negotiators describe a pattern of 'drama and catastrophe'.'' ''Pattern''? Uh oh! That's the sort of thing they do not like to hear in Pyongyang. Now that Snyder's book has been published (US Institute of Peace, 1999) Pyongyang-watchers will have to be on the alert for the regime's inevitable efforts to confound him and any others who see a pattern in their behavior. What can they do to surprise us all next time and win back the negotiating edge they enjoy when they're thought of as totally unpredictable madmen? (Special to Asia Times Online) | |||||||||
 |
 |
 |
| Front | China | Southeast Asia | Japan | Koreas | India/Pakistan | Central Asia/Russia | Oceania Business Briefs | Global Economy | Asian Crisis | Media/IT | Editorials | Letters | Search/Archive |
| back to the top ©2000 Asia Times Online Co., Ltd. Asia Times Online is designed and produced by Multimedia Asia Co., Ltd. |
