October 14, 1999 
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| October 14, 1999 | atimes.com | |
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| The Koreas North Korea eyes Hong Kong reintegration plan STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update October 13,1999 Summary: North Korea has indicated its interest in China's one-country, two-systems model used in the reunification with Hong Kong as a possible model for the Korean Peninsula, according to an October 10 Hong Kong Sunday Morning Post report. In light of recent diplomatic initiatives by North Korea and the easing of US sanctions, North Korea's proposal presents an interesting approach toward reunification. Although the one-country, two-system plan works for Hong Kong and China - at least in theory - the split between North and South Korea is of a very different nature, making the possibility of this solution slight. Analysis: North Korean Foreign Minister Paek Nam Sun, speaking at a recent meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session in New York, said that North Korea had been watching the implementation of the one-country, two-systems plan under which Hong Kong was reunited with China. He added that Pyongyang was considering it as a model for Korean reunification. Paek's comments follow a series of North Korean diplomatic overtures around the world. In light of this, the one-country, two-system approach to Korean unification is intriguing. However, there are fundamental differences between the situation in China and that on the Korean Peninsula, making the proposal, no matter how interesting, a starting point rather than a solution. The idea of a one-country, two-system plan for reunification of the Koreas, raised at a time of increased North Korean diplomatic activity, will create new openings for inter-Korean dialogue. North Korea has consistently expressed its opposition to South Korea's Sunshine Policy of constructive engagement, calling it an attempt by the South to export its cultural system to the North and eventually assimilate the North. However, Paek's proposal forwards what essentially amounts to an advanced state of Sunshine Policy as a model for inter-Korean unification. While the one-country, two-system reintegration of Hong Kong with China ostensibly allowed Hong Kong to maintain its own local economic and political system, in reality it has slowly been acquiescing to China's wishes. With the extreme differences between South Korea and North Korea's foreign policies, it is unlikely they would find common ground under such a plan. One side would be coerced into accepting the will of the other in order to present a unified political and economic front to the world, and the North is far more likely to be subsumed than the South. Aside from the internal ideological differences, any reunification plan acceptable to the North would require the withdrawal of US troops from the Korean Peninsula. A reunified Korea would technically no longer present a threat to US interests, making obsolete the reasons for stationing troops there. Yet, the United States is committed to maintaining a large-scale military presence in Asia, a third of which is currently stationed in Korea. Despite warming relations between North Korea and the United States, as evidenced by the recent easing of sanctions, there is nothing to suggest that the United States is considering the possibility of removing its troops. William Perry, coordinator of US-Korean policy, is convinced of the need to maintain US military presence on the peninsula. While the United States is interested in a stable Korean peninsula, it may not be convinced that a one-country, two-system plan would provide enough of a stabilizing effect to justify the removal of US forces. As well, there are other strategic concerns in the region, such as China, that determine US troop deployment. While North Korea's unofficial proposal does not mean a reunification of Korea is beginning, it does present a point of reference for future talks. As with the Sunshine Policy, it suggests a gradual merging of the two Koreas. However, unlike the Sunshine Policy, the North Korean proposal would necessarily require rethinking both nations' foreign relations, as part of a true reunification into one country. While there would be much to resolve in implementing such a program, it does represent progress in North Korean attempts to move away from rogue state status and into the international diplomatic arena. (c) 1999, Stratfor, Inc. _________________________________ For republication policy contact: STRATFOR, Inc. 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-583-5000 Fax: 512-583-5025 Internet: http://www.stratfor.com/ Email: info@stratfor.com | |||||||||
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