Asia Times: Sanctions lifting is rich in symbolism, poor in profit



	September 21, 1999	atimes.com

The Koreas

Sanctions lifting is rich in symbolism, poor in profit
By Jim Lobe

WASHINGTON - President Bill Clinton has eased the nearly 50-year-old trade embargo on North Korea in exchange for Pyongyang's still to be announced pledge to suspend testing its long-range missiles.

The move, which had been anticipated since a meeting of North Korean and US diplomats in Berlin last week, was described as the ''first step toward . . . comprehensive normalization of relations'' by Washington's top strategist on North Korea.

''For more than 40 years, the threat of another war on the Korean peninsula has hung over our heads like a dark cloud,'' said former defense secretary William Perry, who has just concluded a 14-month review of North Korea policy. ''Today, that cloud is beginning to drift away,'' Perry said

The announcement should also have a ''calming effect'' on tension in the region, according to Robert Manning, Asia analyst for the influential Council on Foreign Relations. Tension had been rising steadily after the August 1998 test-firing of North Korea's Taepodong I ballistic missile, with a range of almost 2,000 kilometers.

Indications earlier this summer that North Korea was preparing to test a new missile, the Taepodong II, with a range capable of hitting Alaska and Hawaii, spurred an unprecedented campaign of pressure by the United States, Japan, South Korea, and even China to persuade Pyongyang not to go through with the launch.

''Japan and South Korea were, if anything, more concerned about the missile tests than we were,'' said Manning. ''In that respect, Perry's most important achievement of the past year may be the degree to which the US, Tokyo and Seoul have coordinated their positions.''

Still, Republicans who accused Clinton of being too soft in dealing with North Korea expressed skepticism about Friday's announcement. ''We appreciate the efforts Dr Perry has made to address the North Korean threat, but I am concerned that we are once again entering a cycle of extortion with North Korea,'' said Rep Benjamin Gilman, the chairman of the House of Representatives International Relations Committee.

''This approach does not have support in Congress and would not be sustainable into the next administration,'' he added, noting that Pyongyang's agreement in Berlin to suspend its testing program is ''far from comprehensive'' and will be difficult to verify.

Even Manning doubted the long-term significance of Friday's announcement. ''This is essentially a time-buying operation,'' he said. ''While Clinton may have bought himself a reprieve for the rest of his administration, North Korea isn't going to give up its missiles in exchange for lifting a few sanctions that are mainly symbolic anyway.''

He suggested it may only be a matter of time before North Korea either resumes testing itself or exports its new missiles to Pakistan or Iran for testing. Missile exports are believed to be a major export earner for Pyongyang, whose economy has been devastated by the disappearance of Soviet bloc aid, a series of catastrophic floods, and a famine which may have killed as many as three million of the country's 21 million people.

Clinton's decision will mean that the 46-year-old trade embargo against Pyongyang will be lifted for most commercial and consumer goods and financial services, provided that they have no possible military application. In addition, US companies and individuals will be permitted to invest in various industries in North Korea, such as agriculture, mining, timber, travel, and infrastructure.

On the other hand, North Korea will not enjoy trade preferences available to most of Washington's trading partners; nor will US companies interested in trading or investing in the country be eligible to receive any government-backed credits or loans. Without those benefits, and given the collapsed state of Pyongyang's economy, little trade or investment is expected to result.

''This is a symbolic act,'' said Manning. ''As a practical matter, it's no big deal.'' Perry himself described it as ''just a small first step''.

In return, said White House spokesman Joe Lockhardt, ''it is our understanding that North Korea will continue to refrain from testing long-range missiles of any kind as both sides move toward more normal relations''. Perry said he expected that Pyongyang would issue a formal statement to that effect in the next weeks.

Perry, who was drafted by Clinton to develop a comprehensive policy toward North Korea after Republicans accused North Korea of reneging on a 1994 deal with the US to freeze an alleged nuclear-weapons program, indicated that senior North Korean officials may soon travel to Washington for further talks.

Perry, who traveled to Pyongyang as part of his review, said he was satisfied that Washington could verify North Korea's compliance with the missile freeze. He declared that the North's nuclear program, which he said may have produced enough plutonium to build one or two nuclear warheads, had been effectively frozen - though not yet dismantled - since the 1994 agreement took effect.

In his report to Clinton, only part of which will be made public, Perry recommended that Washington should move toward normalization in a step-by-step process if North Korea were willing to forgo its missile and nuclear programs. On the other hand, if it rejected that course, Washington and its allies would have to apply a much tougher ''alternative strategy'', which has been the source of considerable speculation.

If the Taepodong test had gone forward, Japan was considering a number of tough sanctions, including barring resident Koreans from sending remittances, estimated at between $600 million and $1 billion a year, to North Korea.

After the Taepodong-I test last year, Japan immediately withdrew its $1 billion dollar contribution to an international consortium that is building two nuclear reactors in North Korea as part of the 1994 accord to freeze its nuclear program.

A test also would have forced South Korean President Kim Dae-jung to abandon his ''sunshine policy'' toward Pyongyang and press Washington to ease currently-existing limits on Seoul's own missile arsenal, according to experts here.

(Inter Press Service)

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