April 02, 1999	atimes.com

The Koreas Russia helpling Iraq upgrade air defenses STRATFOR's Global Intelligence Update March 31, 1999 Summary: Intelligence officials now admit that Serb and Iraqi defenseofficials have met and collaborated in recent months on anti-aircraft operations. Russia is now supplying sophisticated radarsystems to Iraq. The possibility of a second front isincreasing. Analysis: One of the critical issues in the Kosovo war is the intention andcapabilities of Iraq. It must be remembered that many of thesame nations that are currently engaged in the Kosovo aircampaign are also, simultaneously, engaged in an air war in Iraq.As NATO intensifies the air war over Kosovo, the possibility ofan intensification of the air war over Iraq poses an importantstrategic challenge by diverting aircraft and logistical support. Recent reports emerging in the press tend to confirm Stratfor'slong-standing view that Yugoslavia and Iraq collaborated in therun-up to the current conflict. According to the AssociatedPress, for example, U.S. intelligence now has evidence thatYugoslav technicians met with Iraqi specialists in Baghdad inFebruary to help prepare Yugoslavia for an air war. Since bothsides have similar equipment and are facing similar aircraft, theYugoslav military quite rationally wanted to learn whateverlessons the Iraqis had to teach them. It is obviously in the interest of both countries to cooperatestrategically as well as technically. Anything that forces theUnited States to divide its scarce air campaign resourcesbenefits both. Thus, a report from the IBC from Baghdad,claiming that Iraq is distributing advanced radar guidancesystems for the SAM-6 surface-to-air missile system, isparticularly significant. According to the report, Iraq isintensely engaged in upgrading its anti-air missile grid. AbedHameed Hmoud, special secretary to Saddam and a member of thePresidential Council, is said to be personally supervising theinstallations of the systems at the Presidential Palaces, airbases and other critical installations. The article furtherstates that both the Northern and Southern Corps of theRepublican Guards are receiving new computing equipment andsmall, advanced Russian-made radar units as well as technicians. If these reports are true, and we think that to be likely, theRussians are now engaged in a dramatic re-supply of equipment tothe Iraqis. There have been numerous reports from sources inRussia about such a re-supply, and the IBC report is merelyconfirming the arrival and deployment of this equipment. Theupgrading of the Iraqi air defense grid has the potential ofposing serious problems for allied pilots on missions in Iraq,particularly if new systems have been distributed inside the no-fly zones where routine air patrols are carried out. We note,however, that we can find no evidence of any U.S. or allied airstrikes in Iraq at this time. This indicates that both sides arelying low for the moment. The new systems increase the ability of the Iraqis to engage U.S.and allied pilots on missions in this area. The standard U.S.response to such an engagement is first to target the radar andmissile sites. By substantially increasing the number of suchsites, Iraq is able to dictate a quickened tempo of allied airoperations. Even if they lose some of their equipment, if theRussians have provided equipment in sufficient numbers to provideredundancy, Iraq will be able to dictate the level of alliedoperations. At a time when U.S. logistical capabilities requiredto support air operations will be heavily tilted toward Serbia,increased air operations over Iraq might pose a serious burden.If, on one hand, the U.S. declines to increase its airoperations, it opens a window of opportunity for Saddam. If, onthe other hand, the U.S. does increase air operations in Iraq, itcould, over the long haul, degrade its logistical capabilities. Two front wars are the traditional fear of any power. There isno question but that the U.S. can handle one intense and one low-grade air war. There is some question whether the U.S. has thesupplies and transport systems needed to sustain two simultaneoushigh-intensity air campaigns. There is no doubt but that Saddamand Milosevic understand that they may have an opportunity topose serious problems for the United States. Milosevic, ofcourse, has done his part. Now the question is whether Saddamwill up the ante. It is not certain that there is any clear comprehensivewarfighting agreement between Yugoslavia and Iraq, nor that ifthere were, the Iraqis would honor it. But there is a realwindow of opportunity available to Iraq and some indication thatit is preparing to exploit it, with Russian help. When we factorin the unknown North Korean factor, we can see that there aresome important reasons why the United States, in particular, willwant to conclude the Kosovo air operation as quickly as possible. ___________________________________________________ STRATFOR, Inc. 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-583-5000 Fax: 512-583-5025 Internet:http://www.stratfor.com/ Email:info@stratfor.com

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