Bush is still a neophyte


	February 19, 2002	atimes.com

Japan

COMMENTARY
Bush is still a neophyte
By Tim Shorrock

WASHINGTON - As President George W Bush winds his way through today on his first stop on his Asian tour, he is portraying himself as the leader of an American crusade against evil without peer on the world stage. "Either you're with us or you're against us, either you stand for freedom or you stand for tyranny," he proclaimed in a brief stop at Elmendorf Air Force Base in Alaska on Saturday night as hundreds of US troops chanted "USA! USA!"

Bush's language reflects his immense popularity in the United States as a result of his successful conduct of the war against the al-Qaeda terrorist network and the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. The victory of the world's most powerful military force over a gang of fanatic Islamic warriors taking refuge in one of the poorest countries on Earth has somehow brought a sense of imperial triumph to Americans trying to slog their way through a deep recession and corporate scandals of historic proportions.

But as Bush makes his first-ever visit to Japan and South Korea and his third trip to China, its easy to forget that this popular wartime president is still a foreign policy neophyte who faces serious challenges in Asia that his war against terrorism has done nothing to resolve. If anything, Bush's recent comments, particularly his "axis of evil" speech, and his handlers' attempts to reassure Asians that he doesn't plan another devastating war in their region, have made US allies in Asia even more nervous about his lack of experience in foreign policy.

To understand how much has changed with the Bush presidency, one has to peel back the fog of war and return to the days before the attacks on the Twin Towers and the Pentagon. On September 9, just two days before that fateful day, the New York Times ran a remarkable front-page article describing President Bush as embarrassingly weak and ineffectual, and quoting senior Republicans complaining that Bush lacked vision and competence. According to the Times, senior White House officials were desperately working with Republican advisers at the time to present Bush "as a more commanding leader" as he entered a year when the economy and foreign affairs were certain to present unprecedented challenges. With polls showing that "many people still view Mr Bush not as decisive but as tentative and perhaps overly scripted", the aides had decided that "polishing the president's performance skills is an urgent political task".

That all changed, of course, with Bush's forceful and very personal response to the September 11 attacks and his determination to stamp out terrorists wherever he could find them. But while the "new Bush" still holds the public imagination of most Americans, Bush's reckless decision to expand the war against terrorism into a campaign against the "axis" of Iraq, Iran and North Korea has brought back to the international community the memories of the unilateralist president they had come to fear and loathe in the eight months before September 11.

The comments have been scathing. In China, Bush's third stop on his tour, senior leaders have warned of "serious consequences" if the United States attacks Iraq. The French foreign minister called the Bush approach "simplistic". Chris Patten, the former governor of Hong Kong and now the foreign minister for the European Union, chided Bush for being "absolutist". German officials complained of being treated like "satellites" and Russian President Vladimir Putin pointed out that Iraq is not on the enemy list of countries who support Bush's anti-terror campaign.

Bush's aides have reacted by telling Americans to ignore the racket coming from overseas. If America must fight the wars alone, they say, so be it. "The United States and only the United States can see this effort through to victory," Vice President Dick Cheney proclaimed in a speech to the Council on Foreign Relations last week. "America has friends and allies in this cause, but only we can lead it." This attitude is a reminder of the worst days of the Cold War, when American leaders described every conflict in the globe, no matter what their domestic roots, as part of a epochal struggle against communism in which America was always on the side of the angels.

Bush has apparently transferred this mentality to the complexities of today's world, which still bears the scars of the Cold War. This is particularly true in Korea, where he has frightened even conservative critics of Kim Dae-jung's "Sunshine" policy with his bombastic language about the evil incarnate in North Korea. Instead of assuring Koreans that the United States seeks a peaceful resolution to their painful, 50-year division, Bush and his national security adviser Condoleezza Rice have responded to the worries expressed in Seoul with more arrogance.

In his Saturday radio address, taped just before his departure, Bush explained that he supports the efforts of the "people of the South [who] are now reaching out to the North in a spirit of friendship and reconciliation". At the same time, he said he will remind the world "that America will not allow North Korea and other dangerous regimes to threaten freedom with weapons of mass destruction". Rice, in her press briefings on Friday, said the administration believes "that you can have a policy that speaks the truth, speaks clearly about the North Korean regime, and yet leaves open the possibility of dialogue". In an ominous aside, she added that "the United States is very clear that we are going to keep our options open".

The underlying message seems to be that Kim Dae-jung and others seeking reconciliation with Pyongyang have underestimated the dangers from North Korea - as if a man who was nearly executed by North Korean soldiers during the Korean War and millions of Koreans who suffered through the terrible war of 1950-53 need any reminders that their land is a dangerous place. It also tells Koreans, North and South, that the Bush administration will do what's best for American interests, not Korean interests or even the Korean people. That sends a dangerous message to an already paranoid North Korea and can only stir further anti-American sentiment in the South. Its hard to see how Bush's carefully scripted day in Seoul on Wednesday - when he will visit the newly built railroad station at South Korea's border with the North and visit US troops at the demilitarized zone - will do anything to bridge this yawning gap.

Bush's Cold War view of the world will also be on display in Japan, where he will meet the royal family, hold a summit meeting with Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, and give an address to the Diet. One of his goals is to refocus attention on the US-Japan military alliance as the centerpiece of US foreign policy in Asia and praise Japan's unprecedented support for US military action in the war against terrorism. Bush, like his father, also plans to lay off public preaching on the economy and instead offer support for Koizumi's financial reforms. Bush will not "try to micromanage the Japanese economy, but rather support Prime Minister Koizumi in mobilizing Japan to do what Japan needs to do", said Rice.

Still, his message on cleaning up Japan's banking mess carries unmistakable political overtones. If Japan doesn't reduce its public and private debt, many US officials fear Japan will be unable to finance its increased military responsibilities within the alliance structure and the unfolding war against terrorism. Its also a subject area that Bush knows well from his days as governor of Texas, which was hit hard by the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s.

China will present a different challenge. In Beijing, Bush will try to temper his criticism of China's human-rights record by focusing on its partial success in developing a free market economy. On Thursday, he meets Chinese President Jiang Zemin and visits a factory owned by Cummins Inc, a US-based multinational. The next day, he will make a speech at Beijing's Tsinghua University that aides said will highlight religious freedom, an idea he holds dear. According to Rice, Bush will also raise proliferation concerns with Chinese leaders, which she said is "not something that we expect is going to be solved overnight, but it is a very serious issue for the United States". But any attempts to dictate to the Chinese will be met with disdain.

Perhaps by the end of the week, Bush will have a greater appreciation for both the dynamism and complexities of Northeast Asia. But it will be hard for this neophyte president - who was raised during the Cold War by a father who helped lead it - to understand that chest-thumping is not a good substitute for foreign policy.

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