Asia Times: Now for the hard part for Koizumi


	July 31, 2001	atimes.com

Japan

Now for the hard part for Koizumi
By Purnendra Jain

ADELAIDE - Last month the Koizumi wave delivered a strong electoral performance for his party in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly elections. Now the results of the triennial House of Councillors elections held on Sunday, July 29, have given yet another boost to Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's reform agenda. The House of Councillors (Upper House of the national parliament, or the Diet) is nowhere near as powerful as the House of Representatives, the Lower House, which supplies the prime minister and the bulk of ministers. Yet a ruling party would try to maintain a majority in this house as well, as approval of the Upper House is essential to establish most legislation.

In October of last year, a parliamentary law reduced the number of seats of the House of Councillors from 252 to 242, cutting five seats at the 2001 elections with another five to be eliminated at the next elections in 2004. Half the seats are contested every three years.

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) faced increasing frustration with its legislative bills after it lost its majority in the Upper House in 1989 for the first time since 1955. It was the then Japan Socialist Party that plucked stunning success at this election as it rode an unprecedented popularity wave under its charismatic leader Takako Doi.

At the last Upper House election in 1998, the LDP had suffered another huge blow when then prime minister Ryutaro Hashimoto failed to boost public confidence in his administration of the economy. His party lost 17 of its 61 seats contested. For smooth passage of bills in both houses, it became imperative for the LDP to form a coalition with those political parties that were ready to provide support to its legislative proposals. The New Komeito - a Buddhist political party - and a tiny Conservative Party are currently the two coalition partners of the LDP.

Sunday's election was the first nationwide poll since Koizumi became prime minister in April. Of the 121 seats up for grabs, his ruling LDP won 64 seats. Koizumi's coalition partners also performed well. With a new total of 78 seats at this election, the coalition now has a comfortable majority in the house. The ruling coalition needed only 63 seats to maintain a majority in the 247-member house as it already held 60 of the 126 seats not contested this time around.

Various media surveys and other public polls had indicated strongly that voters would endorse Koizumi's structural reform plan, although it may create some immediate social and economic difficulties such as higher unemployment and economic instability. Most voters endorsed Koizumi's idea that long-term gain was possible only through short-term pain.

Going by his popular approval ratings, hovering around 70 percent, Koizumi is by far the most popular prime minister in post-war Japan. His honeymoon period is, however, about to end and he will need to get down to serious business and demonstrate that he is able to deliver on his promises and turn the economy around.

It is crucial that the ruling party and its leader fetch good results even in a less powerful house of parliament as the results of these elections serve as an important barometer of national popular political sentiment. The LDP's poor performance at the last Upper House elections had forced then prime minister Hashimoto to resign his position. With the LDP's strong performance in Sunday's elections, Koizumi has now consolidated and strengthened his leadership both nationally and internationally.

With the news of a shrinking economy, a record level of national debt, higher unemployment, declining exports, sluggish consumer demand and a depressed stock market, Koizumi has a bumpy and winding road to travel. And he also has many hurdles to cross.

Opposition to his structural reform plans is strong within some quarters of the LDP, especially in the group led by former prime minister Hashimoto. Koizumi's proposal to cut spending on public works projects has received cold responses from some members of his own party as these projects have traditionally served as life-blood for many of the LDP politicians' electoral districts. Some regional and rural governors and mayors have raised serious concerns about Koizumi's plans to make changes in the way taxes are transferred from the central to local governments, as this might disadvantage rural Japan.

Koizumi has also sparked concerns in his neighborhood. China and South Korea, in particular, have taken offense to some of Koizumi's plans and actions. They have complained bitterly about the introduction of new history textbooks in the Japanese school system. These countries regard Japan's approval of the textbooks as the evasion of responsibility for its wartime behavior and a distortion of facts.

Koizumi's planned visit to the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo on August 15 is also a sore point between Japan and its neighbors. The shrine honors millions of Japanese who died in wars and also enshrines seven Class A war criminals tried and hanged after World War II. Koizumi's main coalition partner Komeito and his Foreign Minister Makiko Tanaka would like the premier to call off his plan. But Koizumi seems unmoved as he has strong political and public support.

China is also concerned about Japan's closer security and defense arrangements with the United States, especially Japan's endorsement and participation in President George W Bush's missile defense system initiative.

Koizumi's actions will be watched closely both nationally and internationally as many pin their hopes of Japan's economic revival on him. Although the prime minister has talked about social and economic pain and structural reform plans since taking office in April, thus far these have been long on rhetoric and short on detail. He needs to present a blueprint soon and begin implementation. If Koizumi fails in his mission, Japan will probably experience political and economic turmoil as it has never seen before.

Purnendra Jain is a professor in Asian Studies at Australia's Adelaide University.

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