Asia Times: Japan's sleeping giant awakes : Rental Car Reservations


	March 16, 2001	atimes.com

Japan

Japan's sleeping giant awakes
By Yone Sugita

OSAKA - On March 10, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori agreed to early party leadership elections when he met behind closed doors with Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leaders. Many developments led to Mori's move. These include continuing economic stagnation, the recent arrest of former LDP upper house member Masakuni Murakami over a serious bribery case, Mori's unwise decision to continue playing golf after receiving news of the collision between a US submarine and a Japanese high school-training ship, as well as his many inappropriate statements on various occasions.

Now, the LDP is divided on Mori's successor. Possible candidates include former party secretary-general Hiromu Nonaka, LDP secretary-general for upper house members Mikio Aoki, former prime minister Ryutaro Hashimoto, and Junichiro Koizumi, head of the LDP's Mori faction. However, none of these candidates has sufficient support to win the backing of the majority of LDP members.

Of more relevance to Japan's political future is that the economic deterioration, political scandals, and lack of leadership have finally stimulated the largest political force in the country: the political independents - the mass of voters who owe no allegiance to any particular political party.

Throughout the post-World War II era, this group has played one of the most important roles in influencing Japan's political orientation. Under the occupation of the Allied Powers immediately after the Asia-Pacific War, these political independents were very active in politics, enthusiastically supporting the Japanese Communist Party and the Japanese Socialist Party. The latter became so popular that its chairman, Katayama Tetsu, became Japan's first socialist prime minister in 1947.

The Cold War structure allowed Japan to avoid playing an active, independent role in international affairs. Japan was simply expected to follow American leadership. Consequently, during this period the Japanese political independents were able to focus on enlarging the domestic economic pie, which precipitated high economic growth. Since they were quite satisfied with their economic accomplishments, the independents did not pay much attention to politics, allowing the LDP and the bureaucrats free political rein. Moreover, the Socialist Party, the largest opposition party, was not a realistic alternative to take administrative leadership in Japan. In short, economic development and lack of political alternatives led the Japanese political independents to stay away from politics. By not actively participating, they helped the LDP hold on to political power. While the political independents refrained from active political activities, the LDP consolidated its power base among farmers in rural areas, self-employed individuals in urban areas, and the elderly.

In the late 1980s, Japan faced double crises: the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the bubble economy. When the Cold War ended, the country had to redefine its relations with the US and its status in international relations. Japan was suddenly expected to play significant political and military roles in the world arena. It is easy to reach a consensus to pursue economic growth; however, ideological differences may easily precipitate controversies on political and military issues. That is exactly what happened during the 1990s in Japan. Those who had seemed to be disinterested in political activities began to pay closer attention to politics and became actively engaged.

Moreover, prolonged economic stagnation throughout the 1990s precipitated structural changes in the Japanese economy. Increasingly, companies, including some of the largest, begin to abolish the seniority system and life-long employment. The government did not take effective measures to solve the unemployment problem. The long-term economic contraction helped to convince the political independents that they no longer could depend on the LDP and the bureaucrats to run the economy. The independents, many of whom are well educated, now feel that they have to use political channels to realize better economic performance. They are beginning to express their frustration with the LDP and to look for alternatives.

Unlike the Socialist Party, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) presents itself as a real alternative to the LDP. The DPJ includes prominent members such as former deputy chief cabinet secretary Yukio Hatoyama as its president, former prime minister Tsutomu Hata as its special representative, and former minister for health and welfare Naoto Kan as its secretary-general, among others. In the fall of 1999, after the party's presidential election, the DPJ established a shadow cabinet and formed realistic policy alternatives. It is difficult to pinpoint the reasons why more and more people are expressing their support for the DPJ, that is, whether they are attracted to the DPJ's policies or reacting strongly against the LDP's numerous blunders. In any case, as the LDP's popularity declines, the DPJ's increases.

What is worse for the LDP, its coalition partner New Komeito seems to be in a position to secure a casting vote. If the DPJ succeeds in gaining cooperation with the New Komeito after the (upper) house of councillors election this coming July, these two parties may be able to form a strong coalition government. The LDP will have to make substantial compromises in order to keep New Komeito's cooperation.

The political independents, however, hold the real casting vote. The LDP's former party secretary-general Koichi Kato tried to mobilize their support by abstaining from a no-confidence resolution last November and again this March. He generated much media attention in November but could not do so this time. Because the political independents' disenchantment with the LDP runs so deep, Kato's brave behavior may not sway them as long as he stays in the LDP. As for New Komeito, the party has a solid power base, the Buddhist organization Soka Gakkai, and it always secures a certain number of seats in the Diet, but it is difficult to imagine that it effectively extends its influence to the political independents. The DPJ is the most likely party to attract these forces, and if it succeeds, New Komeito would abandon the LDP and cooperate with the DPJ.

The major political questions facing Japan today are: Can the LDP reform itself and heal the economy so that the party, as in the past, can contain the political activities of the political independents? And can the DPJ continue to mobilize the support of the political independents by providing moderate and constructive policies, assisted by the LDP's continuous misconduct? Japan's mass of undecided voters hold the key.

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