Asia Times: Pakistan's Afghan policy unchanged


	April 10, 2002	atimes.com

India/Pakistan

Pakistan's Afghan policy unchanged
By Nadeem Iqbal

ISLAMABAD - Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf's visit to Afghanistan last week was aimed at winning goodwill and pursuing the same foreign-policy objective of gaining access to Central Asia as in the Taliban days.

Addressing a press conference, Musharraf and the chairman of Afghanistan's interim government, Hamid Karzai, vowed to join hands in fighting terrorism and expand economic and trade ties.

"I have made it absolutely clear that Pakistan has only one aim - to assist Afghanistan and chairman Karzai all the way in what he wants to do here," Musharraf said.

Much has changed since the ouster of the Pakistan-supported Taliban regime, but Pakistan's foreign-policy objectives vis-a-vis Afghanistan remain the same.

Indeed, the official website of Pakistan's foreign office still has the same content that was written during Taliban times. A Foreign Office official explained that there was no need to update the website as Islamabad's objectives in Afghanistan remained the same.

The website says that Pakistan has suffered more than any other country from the continuation of the conflict Afghanistan. "For us, vital security interests are linked to stability on our western and northern borders. We therefore seek peace, stability and national reconciliation in Afghanistan. This will open new opportunities in our economic and commercial relations with the Central Asian States."

It further adds, "Pakistan aims to revive historical and cultural ties with the people of the newly independent republics in Central Asia [Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan] and to develop mutually beneficial trade and economic cooperation with them."

Emphasis has been laid on collaboration in such areas as transit routes, credit facilities, establishment of gas and oil pipelines, technical assistance programs and banking. "The restoration of peace in Afghanistan will allow the potential for such collaboration to take off."

Pervez Iqbal Cheema, chief of the Islamabad Policy Research Institute - a think-tank - said that the significance of Musharraf's visit lay in the timing since it was "undertaken at the early stage of reconstruction when other countries are still at the planning stages. The aim is to consolidate the future relations on positive footings and to demonstrate to the Afghan people that Pakistan is a friend of Afghanistan."

"Such small acts on the part of Pakistan, like Musharraf handing over a check for US$10 million to chairman Karzai, as part of a $100 million package, and providing airplanes to Afghan pilgrims to go to Saudi Arabia are in fact big steps to create a conducive environment for Pakistani traders to invest in the reconstruction of Afghanistan, which has visible financial dividends," Cheema said.

Bashir Ahmed, who heads the Institute of Regional Studies, said, "The reciprocal visit to an earlier Hamid Karzai sojourn to Islamabad would consolidate the new Pakistani 'hands off' approach toward Afghanistan."

Ahmed, a retired army brigadier, found it important that Musharraf's visit came when the process of forming the loya jirga, or the traditional council of elders, and showed that the new political dispensation in Afghanistan would enjoy full support of Pakistan.

However, the International Crisis Group (ICG) - a private, multinational organization committed to strengthening the capacity of the international community to anticipate, to understand and act to prevent and contain conflict - reads the situation differently. A report released by its Islamabad chapter las month cautions that "the international community must now stabilize Afghanistan by providing security, facilitating a political process and assisting the creation of basic institutions of government". Otherwise, it warned, the limited peacekeeping presence will also make it more likely that regional actors such as Pakistan, Iran, Uzbekistan, India and Russia will attempt to directly influence the loya jirga process.

"Renewed regional competition in Afghanistan, particularly at a time when the political system is both nascent and fragile, would have dire implications for stability. There are already widely differing reports of the extent of Iranian influence not only in the Herat region, but elsewhere," the report said.

The most commonly expressed fear in both Afghanistan and Pakistan is that increasing Iranian activity may provoke Pakistan's intelligence services to again interfere intensely in local politics. "If both Pakistan and Iran become more active, it would signal that the floodgates of foreign influence were open, a particularly dangerous prospect as the country moves to an emergency loya jirga," the report said.

The report concluded that it is impossible to reduce Iranian and Pakistani involvement to zero since both are neighbors with legitimate interests in Afghan. Ultimately, their security concerns are best served by a stable Afghanistan.

In the field of economic cooperation, the major decision taken by two leaders was to form a Joint Ministerial Commission (JMC) to help promote bilateral economic and trade ties. Pakistani Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz said the JMC would also help coordinate efforts of reconstruction in Afghanistan. The two sides also discussed the beginning of air flights between the two countries and the use of Pakistan's seaport for the transportation of the equipment and material to be used in the reconstruction of Afghanistan. Landlocked Afghanistan has no transit trade agreement with Tehran, while Islamabad signed one in 1965 under which it provides port facilities to Kabul.

A World Bank study completed last year on Afghanistan's trade relations with its neighboring countries found that Afghanistan's exports and re-exports were substantial, in the order of $1.23 billion in 2000, of which nearly $1.1 billion were unofficial re-exports. Total imports in 2000 were estimated at $1.2 billion. The study also found that trade with Pakistan was sharply lower in 2000 than in 1997.

Drought in Afghanistan has resulted in higher food imports from Pakistan, but consumer goods re-exports to Pakistan were much lower because of tighter border controls and muted consumer demand in Pakistan. Overall, the impact of trade in Afghanistan was considered significant in terms of generating incomes, providing employment and access to basic goods, including food in the current drought situation.

Positive signals also come from the start of repatriation of about 3 million Afghan refugees, an unbearable burden on the Pakistan's fragile economy. Since March 1, more than 150,000 Afghans have gone back and are now leaving at the rate of 50,000 a week.

The News, a leading daily, considered the Musharraf visit "extremely important not only as a symbol of the new solidarity between the two neighbors but also for the vast range of issues covered in the short span of time".

(Inter Press Service)