Asia Times: Delhi lays down the welcome mat for Washington


	February 14, 2002	atimes.com

India/Pakistan

Delhi lays down the welcome mat for Washington
By Sudha Ramachandran

BANGALORE, India - Unlike most other regional powers, which are spending sleepless nights over the possible long-term American presence in Central Asia, India does not seem at all alarmed at the prospect. In fact, New Delhi's justification for America's military presence in the region has confirmed apprehensions in the neighborhood that the India-US liaison is much more than a fleeting fling between the once-estranged democracies.

The two sides have been signaling their growing proximity over recent months. However, it is confirmation of the blossoming romance, which came straight from the horse's mouth, that has raised eyebrows in Moscow, Beijing and Tehran.

In a recent conversation with Washington Post columnist Jim Hoagland, India's Minister for External Affairs Jaswant Singh is reported to have said: "I don't think America can give up the Central Asian presence now. The presence troubles Russia and China. But you won't be able to give it up any time soon." Hoagland recounts that Singh even suggested that US forces should stay on in Pakistan to help stabilize that country. This would mean that the Indian government is not just understanding of an American long-term presence in the neighborhood but is actually inviting the superpower on to its doorstep.

This is a striking change of position. India has traditionally opposed intrusion of extra-regional powers in its neighborhood. For decades, New Delhi expressed its deep aversion to the US military presence on the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia and had firmly countered attempts by the United States and Israel to get a foothold in the Sri Lankan harbor at Trincomalee.

Signals of the coming turnaround in India's position were evident last year, well before the events of September 11. In May, India was among the few countries to endorse unconditionally the controversial US national missile defense (NMD) program, propelling itself to the role of a quasi-ally.

At a news conference in Australia a month later, when asked whether India would provide the US with bases given the marked improvement in India-US ties, Singh did not rule out the possibility. "Access to bases [could] evolve over time," he said. In the past, India would have flatly dismissed the possibility.

India was among the first off the blocks in offering its "fullest support" to the US in its war against terrorism. While the government did not reveal the kind of assistance it was willing to give the United States - there was speculation in the media that in addition to intelligence-sharing, India was keen to send its troops and "join forces" with the US - the offer of "fullest support" indicated how far India had moved from its policy in the past with regard to the US. During the 1990 Gulf War, for instance, merely consenting to refuel American aircraft was regarded as a major concession.

Like India, Russia, Iran and China were supportive of the US operations against al-Qaeda and the Taliban. After all, they have all been at the receiving end of their export of terrorism. However, while Russia, Iran and China are uneasy with the US presence in Central Asia and Pakistan, India is silent or even supportive of it.

While some have attributed India's wooing of the US as an attempt by New Delhi to neutralize Pakistan's value in American eyes, such explanations do not capture adequately the extent of India's ambitions. Counterterrorism might provide some thread to bind the two together. However, it is in the role each sees for the other in their separate and at times shared interests that one would find a more comprehensive explanation for the growing proximity.

Interaction at the political level and between top brass of the armed forces of the two countries has been close and frequent and a number of significant agreements have been reached or are in the pipeline. India plans to escort US naval vessels to the Strait of Malacca. The US has proposed joint patrolling of the Malacca Strait to step up energy security and check gun-running and narcotics smuggling. This is an acknowledgement that Indian interests extend from the Persian Gulf to the Malacca Strait. Military cooperation will include tactical exercises and high-tech training. Joint naval exercises are envisaged. The Indian Navy will extend its replenishment and repair facilities to American ships in the region. The US will help India with a pilot project on defending against infiltrations. It will draw on India's software capabilities to tackle cyber-terrorism Joint ventures in production of weapons and equipment are being negotiated. Exchange of intelligence information has never been higher.

For India, which is looking for a global role, cooperation with the US could bring it closer to its goal.

But the growing proximity is fraught with dangers and opportunities for India. There is considerable apprehension in India that the government's cozying up with Washington could prove costly to Indian interests. The US presence in Central and South Asia has to do with protecting its oil interests and safeguarding the pipelines in the region. It also has to do with preventing the rise of Iran and containing China and Russia, as well as India.

A former ambassador to the US notes that, "By getting too close to the US, India will end up spoiling its equations with Russia, Iran and Iraq - countries with whom it currently has no quarrel.

"The US would like India to be a counterweight to China, to contain its growing power," he said, even as India's relations with Beijing are improving slowly. "Collaborating with the US in its plan to contain China will result in India antagonizing its giant neighbor to the north. All this when China cannot be contained," the former ambassador points out.

American arm-twisting of New Delhi is sure to increase on economic and political issues.

The US role in the subcontinent and with regard to Kashmir has never been higher. Indications are that it is in the direction of mediation, whether or not New Delhi will refer to it by that term, that the US intermediary role between India and Pakistan and with regard to Kashmir is moving. The big question is: Is India comfortable with US meddling with what it has hitherto regarded as an internal problem?

That several countries are alarmed with India's cozying up with Washington is without doubt. Moscow, India's long-standing friend, has, for instance, shown its irritation with the way New Delhi has been taking its support for granted. Almost as if to catch New Delhi's attention, Russia stepped up its interaction with Pakistan in the late 1990s. Moscow's proposal for the creation of a trilateral strategic axis including Russia, India and China, and its recent endorsement of New Delhi's position in the India-Pakistan equation, is being perceived in official circles in New Delhi as a desperate attempt by Moscow to woo India back into its fold.

While excitement over the developing relationship with the US is palpable in official circles, experienced analysts are calling for a cautious engagement because few see Washington as a reliable friend.

"India needs only to look next door, at the fate of Pakistan, to figure out what happens to junior partners of the US," says the former ambassador.

But New Delhi, heady with the thrill of a new romance, is neither seeing nor listening.

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