Musharraf has his own battles to fight


	October 30, 2001	atimes.com

Central Asia/Russia

Musharraf has his own battles to fight
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - More violent and powerful demonstrations to topple the government of Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf are expected within the next few days.

Effective calls from Taliban leader Mullah Omar in Afghanistan for these demonstrations and Musharraf's harsh statements against the Taliban have further fueled support among jihadis. According to well-placed sources, even if these demonstrations do not remove the Musharraf government, they are likely to force the military rulers to change their policies toward Afghanistan.

Organized and violent demonstrations focusing on unseating Musharraf have been planned with the consensus of all religious political parties, militant groups, and even some of the moderate political parties, including the former ruling Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz group). Sources say that the architect of this mass movement is Qazi Hussain Ahmed of the Jamaat-i-Islami, the premier fundamentalist party in the country.

In an effort to turn the demonstrations into broad-based populist ones, Qazi has started widespread consultations embracing all political quarters, including the pro-Musharraf Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid-i-Azam). It is learnt that leaders of these group have assured Qazi that they will join the movement once it is under way.

Sources say that the government has radically changed its policies toward the Taliban, adopting a harsh tone against the people it helped put in government in 1996. This has strengthened the hand of those organizing the unrest.

Initially, Musharraf agreed to provide limited access for US forces to Pakistani airbases. It appears that this presence will be increased. Similarly, Musharraf had been adamant that Pakistan would only support the defeat of the hardline leadership of the Taliban and the arrest of Osama bin Laden. That is, Pakistan would continue to support moderate elements within the Taliban, whom it regards as the real representatives of the majority of the population. This approach resulted in the religious parties and the government being of one mind in the post September 11 demonstrations that broke out in the country in protest against the US.

The religious leaders were able to put on face-saving shows before their followers, while the government attempted to forge a better bargain with US authorities under the pretext of these demonstration.

However, under US pressure, Pakistan started changing its Taliban policies as its Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) failed to produce or cultivate any "moderate" Taliban to replace Mullah Omar. Initially, Musharraf was very careful when speaking about the Taliban, but recently he has started attacking them and Mullah Omar's policy. In his latest attack he was reported in a US newspaper as saying that until Mullah Omar was eliminated, the Afghan crisis would continue. Though the interview was immediately denied by Musharraf's spokesman, the reporter stood by the story.

This situation has created a direct clash between the religious parties and Musharraf. The first manifestation of this appeared in Karachi when participants at a rally involving several thousand people burnt an effigy of Musharraf, the first time this has happened. The rally is said to have been the largest since September 11.

The government faced another setback on the weekend when thousands of tribesmen crossed into Afghanistan despite the Pakistani authorities refusing them permission to do so. Tribesmen under the flag of the Tehrik-i-Nifaz-i-Shariat-i-Mohammadi said that if they were stopped, they would start a jihad against the obstructor (Pakistan). As a result, many thousands of fighters poured into Afghanistan carrying sophisticated weapons, including rocket launchers, machine guns, light anti-aircraft guns, and missiles. Pakistani authorities could only look on.

Considering these developments, all circles agree that the coming days will be tough for Musharraf. Talking to Asia Times Online, former Pakistan ambassador and advisor to almost all political governments in the past 10 years, Hussain Haqqani, commented that to date all anti-American demonstrations had been organized either by religious parties or by some quarters within government, with the aim of striking a better deal with Washington in repayment for supporting the war against terrorism. This has all changed now, added Haqqani.

Musharraf certainly also appreciates the fact that extremist elements could take advantage of a volatile situation. He has already sidelined or retired all those considered hardliners, including Lieutenant-General Jamshed Gulzar, who was removed from Rawalpindi Corps, and Lieutenant-General Aziz Khan, who was was removed from Lahore Corps and promoted to chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, which is a ceremonial position.

However, Musharraf's appointments after sidelining or retiring senior officers have raised many eyebrows within the army. For the first time in the Punjabi-dominated forces, no Punjabis hold positions of importance. The chief and vice chief of Army Staff, the chief of the General Staff, the director-general of the ISI and the commander of the most important Rawalpindi Corps are all non-Punjabis, in addition to the director-general of the Intelligence Bureau and the director-general of Military Intelligence. All of these positions are held by Karachiites, except for the Director-General of the ISI, Lieutenant-General Ihsan, who comes from the North West Frontier Province.

This ensures loyalty to the policies of Musharraf at the top of the army, but it is not the case among all of the lower officers and rank and file. These differences could be widened in the event of a strong public campaign against Musharraf.

Asia Times Online spoke to retired major-general Zaheer ul-Islam Abbasi. Abbasi and several of his comrades and other lower-ranked officers were arrested in September 1995 over allegations that they had conspired to topple the Benazir Bhutto government and bring about an Islamic revolution in Pakistan. Abbasi was court-martialled and sentenced to jail for six years. He was recently released.

Asia Times Online: It is generally said that the Pakistan army is an Islamic one and that 80 percent of its members are Islamic-minded. Do you agree?

Zaheer: Faith, fear of God and jihad, these are the slogans which were introduced by late general Zia ul-Haq to motivate soldiers. Practically, these norms have not been introduced into the military system. These slogans are not the benchmark, either in selection or in promotion, not even in the training and education systems. The military system is still perfectly secular, as it was when it was inherited from the British army.

Asia Times Online: Why, then, is it said that a large number of officers are Islamic minded?

Zaheer: The majority of the army is Muslim, but since Islam is not taught formally, nor is the Koran taught formally, there is hardly anybody in the army who understands that Islam is a way of life. Islam is taken by them as a collection of rituals, which are not obligatory in the army. This is the reason that today there is no Islam in the country as neither the army nor the political parties understand true Islam.

Asia Times Online: But what about General Zia? He was an army man and also an Islamist.

Zaheer: He was an exception, but I do not believe that he had any perfect understanding of Islam. He allowed all his rascals ... to let down the army and the country.

Asia Times Online: What is your opinion of General Musharraf?

Zaheer: We were contemporaries in the army. In general, he is a good human being, a good friend and a patriot, but he is a secular-minded person.

Asia Times Online: How do you analyze his decision regarding Afghanistan?

Zaheer: First, you should understand military training. A soldier is trained, for motivation, that he has to sacrifice his life for the nation. But this is not the case of a general. A general is training on rationality. Generals do not sacrifice their lives, in the case of any threat to their lives they choose to surrender so that they can fight some other day. In the present circumstances, Musharraf took a rational decision, but it has nothing to do with Islam. We believe in principle and divine help. As a Muslim, we should not help the US government to kill our Muslim brothers in Afghanistan.

Asia Times Online: In the current circumstances , is there any possibility of a revolt within the army?

Zaheer: It is very strict in the army and nobody dares to disobey his superiors. However, there are some grounds under which army men can disobey. One situation is a war in which the military leadership risks the national interest, and the second is in the case of civil war when the army is deployed against its own people. We have the example of 1977 when three brigadiers revolted. They were asked to fire on a mob in Lahore and they refused.

The same situation now exists. We are sharing intelligence with the US against the Taliban to dethrone them. They are pro-Pakistan, and all other factions are anti-Pakistan. I do not believe that the army as an institution will tolerate this.

Asia Times Online: Do you think that institutions such as the ISI, which helped forge the Taliban, sincerely cooperates with the US authorities?

Zaheer: I think it is not possible that the ISI or any other army body would cooperate with the US to destroy Pakistani interests in Afghanistan. I believe that if these demonstrations increase, there is a chance of revolt within the army against their superiors.

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