Asia Times: Pakistan risks war on every front


	September 19, 2001	atimes.com

India/Pakistan

Pakistan risks war on every front
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - The markets and streets of Pakistan vividly illustrate the powerful forces that threaten to tear the nation apart. At the very moment that a senior Pakistani delegation is in Afghanistan to try to convince the Taliban to hand over Osama bin Laden, portraits of the man the US desperately wants on terrorism charges are being snapped up by his followers.

And while the Pakistan government has said that it will assist the US in any attacks it should launch against the Taliban for harboring bin Laden and the (holy warriors) he trains, public and private vehicles play loud music extolling the virtue of the holy wars that bin Laden had come to represent.

Across society, from religious groups to the army, people are divided on how Pakistan should react to the escalating crisis. On the one hand, the government does not want to simply brush off the US demands, on the other it has to placate those with deep-seated beliefs that it is, in fact, the US that is the enemy.

Over the next few days, Pakistan will have to develop a near foolproof strategy to defend itself against jihadis launching attacks within the country in the event of a United States strike on Afghanistan.

Military and para-military troops and the police have been placed on high alert and special directives have been sent to the provincial home departments of all four provinces. They have been told to put aside funds for logistics and other expenditures for the forces, which are being deployed in the major cities of Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Karachi, Lahore, Peshawer and Quetta.

Intelligence agencies have identified the several million Afghan refugees in Pakistan and the militant religious organizations as the main threat to Pakistan's national security. Pakistani radio has reported that the country's border has been sealed to prevent more refugees entering from Afghanistan. Iran has taken similar action. Pakistan's stock markets have closed for three days to avert a feared major slide in its currency.

The fatwa (religious ruling) issued after US missile attacks on Afghanistan in 1998, saying that in the case of an attack on the Islamic Emirates of Afghanistan (the official name of Taliban-controlled Afghanistan) there will be a counter-attack on US forces, on their interests and on their assets as a matter of right, has been revived.

While the religious-political parties in Pakistan have been publicly largely silent as events have unfolded, activists within the groups may take matters into their own hands. Two major organizations, the Jesh-i-Mohammed and the Harkatul Mujahideen, are said to be discussing with prominent religious scholars the status of Pakistan should it support the US in launching attacks on Afghanistan. Will it become a Darul Harab (enemy state) for them? The prominent religious scholars are believed to have asked the organizations to wait until events become clearer.

According to sources, an estimated 500,000 Pakistani students are listed in religious schools under the administration of the Wifaqul Madaris of Pakistan - the federal board of Islamic institutions. Many of these students have had training in Afghanistan's military camps. Previously, during the Afghan-Soviet war of more than a decade ago, the president of the Wifaqul Madaris, Shiekhul Hadiath Maulana Salimullah Khan, one of the most respected figures representing the Deobandi philosophy, issued an order to expel all of those students who had gone to Afghanistan to fight. However, the plea was ignored and students continued to join the jihadi in Afghanistan.

At this time, the Wifaqul Madaris has issued no such orders, and it is likely that a large number of the schools will send students to Afghanistan to fight, not only against the US, but against Pakistan itself. Indeed, many are believed to have already gone there.

The militant Lashkar-i-Taiba, which has long held that it is only concerned with fighting for the independence of Kashmir, has announced that it will send 500 guerrillas to Afghanistan. Other groups have been silent, and military activities in Kashmir have slowed down. Their strategy appears to be one of wait and see.

In another development, President General Pervez Musharraf has been forced to cancel his visit to China in the face of the crisis. In the broader picture, with terrorism as the new US obsession, Washington's "China as enemy" syndrome has been forced into the background. This is one good development for Pakistan as China is its best friend and close ally.

The Director General of the Inter-Services Intelligence, Lieutenant General Mehmood Ahmed, arrived on Monday in Kandahar in the south of Afghanistan, the base of the Taliban's reclusive leader Mullah Omar. His eight-man delegation included officials of the foreign ministry and the army. They are expected to pass on the US ultimatum that Afghanistan hand over Osama bin Laden, wanted in connection with the terrorist attacks on the US. The Taliban is not expected to change its stance on not handing him over.

Bin Laden owns a house and spends much of his time in Kandahar. However, according to sources, the Afghan government has moved him to an unknown hideout in the protective custody of the Afghan militia.

Sources who are directly in touch with the Taliban told Asia Times Online that the ruling regime in Kabul is concentrating its thinking along one line only - how will they retaliate against US attacks, which will have the tacit, if not active support of Pakistan and other countries. The Majlis-i-Shura, an advisory council comprising Islamic scholars, is mapping out a final strategy for defense as well as retaliation, which includes the US-made Stinger missiles and anti-aircraft guns that are now pointed toward Pakistan.

The Taliban armed forces have been beefed up near the Afghan-Pakistan border at Torkhum, mines have been installed around all the important strategic points and missiles have been primed. The Taliban has well equipped and well trained forces that are estimated to run into the millions, including 600,000 belonging to Pakistan-based militant organizations. Apart from the arsenal the Taliban acquired from the US to fight against the USSR and the communist regime in Kabul over two decades, it also has access to a large Soviet weapons stock captured in the fall of Kabul in 1992. Bin Laden's Al-Qaida group is believed to have amassed a stockpile of the latest light and heavy weapons from Central Asian republics.

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