Asia Times: Clamp on Maoists to India's liking


	June 9, 2001	atimes.com

India/Pakistan

Clamp on Maoists to India's liking
By Sultan Shahin

NEW DELHI - The ham-handed manner in which the Nepalese government and the new royalty have handled information about the massacre of almost the entire royal family has left the doors open for speculations, conspiracy theories and disinformation.

With the masses in Nepal spontaneously and routinely blaming India for anything untoward happening there, the government in New Delhi naturally tried to maintain neutrality and balance as far as possible. It went to the unprecedented extent of advising the Indian media to practice restraint. And yet, almost inevitably, it has become embroiled in speculation about the tragedy that has beset the Shah dynasty that it had itself helped to restore in 1951.

In a bid to further exacerbate Indo-Nepalese relations, according to a report in India's widely circulated The Hindu, the Pakistani establishment in Kathmandu is planning to circulate copies of some select newspapers which see in the events the hand of India's external intelligence agency - the Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW).

Copies of the Urdu daily Nawa-i-Waqt, with reports accusing the R&AW of plotting the killings, were likely to be circulated in some of the capital's mosques during prayers, the newspaper said, quoting highly placed sources. Curiously, the views stated in some of the Pakistani newspapers are in consonance with the opinion expressed by the resurgent Maoists in Nepal that the late King Birendra was a victim of a conspiracy jointly hatched by R&AWand the United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).

The newspaper quotes sources in Nepal that do not rule out an understanding between the Pakistanis and the Maoists to exploit the existing situation to India's detriment, and point out that regular contact between the two is being maintained. In fact, the Pakistanis and the Maoists reportedly met in the mid-western town of Pokhra only seven days ago, they claim. While meetings were held, a tie-up on the transfer of arms, particularly RDX that is used for making exceptionally powerful bombs, by the Pakistani intelligence to the Maoists did not result in a deal. This was mainly on account of the Pakistani insistence that the Maoists should not use the explosives in the host country, a condition that was rejected by the extremists.

In the absence of credible information and transparency on the part of the Nepalese government, a couple of factors may strengthen the Nepalese people's natural tendency to suspect India for all their ills. Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's denial that there was any conspiracy involved in the incidents is inexplicable. It is natural for the Nepalese to ask how did he know that. Vajpayee's remark has been criticized by former Indian prime minister Chandra Shekhar, who has a much better understanding of and contacts with the Himalayan country than any other Indian politician.

Not to speak of Nepal, in India, too, most analysts seem to believe that the massacre could not have happened the way it is being projected. One of India's top policemen, now retired, former chief of the Border Security Force (BSF), Prakash Singh, for instance, told a television channel that it is highly unlikely that Prince Deependra could have murdered his whole family in the way the new royalty is describing the events. Other experts are expressing similar skepticism.

Another factor that might strengthen Nepalese suspicions against India and the United States is that already Nepal's monarchy under King Gyanendra is training its guns on the Maoists and their sympathizers. This is evident from the drastic step the government took of arresting a well-connected journalist, Yubraj Ghimire, and charging him with sedition for publishing an inflammatory article by Baburam Bhattarai, a top Maoist leader. Interestingly, Bhattarai's article made the same charge against Indian intelligence that some Pakistani newspapers are making.

Apparently with the arrest of the senior journalist and his management colleagues, the authorities are sending a signal both to the Maoists and the media. As for the Maoists, the move is an indication that the new combination of the royalty and the elected government will not hesitate to go after them. The army in Nepal is under the king, whereas the police are controlled by the elected government. The slain King Birendra was reluctant to use the army in the fight against the Maoists, while the police do not have the strength or the resources to fight them. Consequently, the Maoist presence was increasing in the country day-by-day.

The new dispensation's message for the media is also clear - it has to operate within well-defined limits - democracy or no democracy. In fact, most Nepalese newspapers are already functioning in a most discreet fashion. While off the record senior Nepalese journalist are prepared to talk most effusively and offer their insights, their newspapers merely offer the government viewpoint. None of the Nepalese newspapers published reports of the massacre on the first day, even though it took place at nine o'clock in the evening, well before they were published.

It is thus becoming likely that after the emergence of King Gyanendra on the throne, the army will for the first time act against the Maoists. If the emerging situation holds and the new dispensation continues to put military pressure on the Maoists, it will be a situation very much to the liking of India.

India has for long feared a further strengthened left-wing extremist movement in a neighbor which has a porous border with India. Maoists gaining strength in Nepal is bound to have a lasting impact on the Indian states already besieged with ultra-left Naxalite (Marxist) activity. Police in at least four Indian states, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Orissa and Andhra Pradesh, face a growing Marxist (Maoist) presence.

Of particular cause for concern for the police in these states, according to another report in The Hindu, is that the CPI (ML) People's War Group (PWG), which is waging a Protracted Armed Struggle (PAS), has a good rapport with the Maoist rebels of Nepal. The Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) and the PWG draw inspiration from each other's movements.

If the CPN (M) can draw inspiration from the guerrilla zones established by the PWG in Dandakaranya and Andhra Pradesh, the Indian Maoists are enthralled over the rapid strides made by their "Nepal comrades" in five years. If it took more than two decades for the PWG to form guerrilla zones and establish a centralized military command for its PGA, the CPN (M) achieved a similar feat in just five years. The Nepal Maoists also boast of firm control over 45 districts out of 75.

The major source of consternation for the Indian states afflicted with Maoists insurgency so far has been the "demonstrated inability" of the Nepalese administration in initiating firm steps to check the growth of CPN (M) influence among the masses. The Nepal police administration had to watch helplessly as the Maoist guerrillas mounted surprise attacks on police outposts in mid-western Rukum district and north-central Dolakha district. In all, more than 60 policemen have been killed and arms snatched, the Hindu adds.

Kathmandu has, of course, been aware of the dangers of the increasing influence of Maoists and their tie-up with Indian extreme Marxists. This is evident from the interaction it has allowed its own police to have with Indian counter-insurgency forces. Realizing that the police are ill-equipped and poorly trained in counter-insurgency operations, the Nepali government sent two top ranking police officers to Andhra Pradesh in India some six months ago to study the methodology of anti-extremist operations. Though there is a vast difference in the terrain in the areas controlled by the Maoists in Nepal and that in which the PWG wages its protracted armed struggle, the officers tried to learn anti-extremist techniques in field operations.

The two Nepali officers spent considerable time interacting with officers of the Special Intelligence Branch (SIB) and Grey Hounds, an elite commando force raised solely for carrying out counter-insurgency operations in Andhra Pradesh, where police have been more successful than those in other states.

Though definitely grieving over the human tragedy of the massacre of Nepal's royalty - which was was very popular in India, too - the government is likely to be pleased with the turn of events if the first indications of Kathmandu's firmness against the Maoists holds as a continuing trend.

However, police top brass in Andhra Pradesh are reportedly more concerned over the prospect of Maoists taking advantage of the turmoil in the Kingdom since the PWG and the CPN (M) had already initiated a process of establishing a "red" corridor from Nepal to Dandakaranya that would traverse Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh and culminate in the thick forest tracts of Andhra Pradesh.

What with the PWG already effecting major organizational changes and establishing a centralized military command in the name for the recently-launched People's Guerrilla Army, the police top brass are keenly watching developments in Nepal. "The administrative vacuum due to the unrest and the ill-trained police provide a very conducive atmosphere for the CPN (M) in Nepal," Andhra Pradesh police chief H J Dora, says.

In the past, the government in Nepal has treated Maoist insurgency as merely a law and order problem to be dealt with by the police. If the new dispensation takes the issue more seriously, it may lessen one of the worries of the Indian government. But if the new king's reputation of being anti-democracy is true, India, which has contributed greatly to the flowering of democracy in Nepal, is also worried about what the future holds for the country.

The tragic developments in Nepal, however, represent a serious challenge to Indian foreign policy. It seems there is no escaping South Asia for India. The more it tries to get away from its immediate neighborhood and focus on what it considers its strategic neighborhood, Southeast Asia, Central Asia and West Asia, the more it remains mired in South Asian affairs.

While striving to cope with the imperatives of the moment, the managers of India's external relations need to sit up and rethink the basics of policy towards its immediate neighborhood, advises analyst C Raja Mohan.

"If India is to respond more effectively to challenges in the region it is important to understand the huge dimensions of the problem. The mayhem in Nepal must be seen as symptomatic of a deeper malaise in the subcontinent, of collapsing institutions, the failure of the political classes to govern purposefully, the growing economic gap between the region and the rest of the world, and the inability to find ways to broaden the basis for regional cooperation," says Mohan adds.

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