Asia Times: Pakistan's nuclear program built on shifting sands

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	December 23, 1999	atimes.com

India/Pakistan

Pakistan's nuclear program built on shifting sands
By Nadeem Iqbal

ISLAMABAD - At last Pakistan's hush-hush nuclear power program has been prised open for public discussion by activists sitting across the table from scientists of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission in an open forum arranged by the non-governmental Sustainable Development Policy Institute.

The loading of 36 tonnes of radioactive uranium fuel into the Chashma nuclear power plant on November 23 and the announcement that the reactor, Pakistan's second nuclear power project, will start production by end-March 2000 have raised concerns about the plant's location in an earthquake-prone zone, and the possibility of radioactive pollution of the River Indus, the lifeline of Pakistan.

The plant's Deputy General Manager Zia H Siddique explained that the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission had closely monitored the construction of the power project, making sure it was above international standards. ''There are multiple barriers and there is no chance of any nuclear disaster. Risks have been assessed and the plant has been built accordingly,'' he said, adding that at least 10 experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency have reviewed the project's safety.

But well-known physicist and anti-nuclear activist Dr A H Nayyar, associate professor in the Department of Physics, Quaid-I-Azam University, said the Chashma reactor's vulnerability to earthquake damage is increased by its location on the sandy banks of the Indus River. ''The ground there is silt and sand, deposited by the flooding of the river over countless years, and water is so close to the surface that the ground may be almost saturated,'' he pointed out. ''These characteristics make the area susceptible to liquefaction; a phenomenon where, in response to an earthquake, the ground loses all its strength and flows as if it had suddenly become a liquid.''

Independent experts have warned that the reactor is located in an earthquake-prone zone. A study of tremblers between 1973 and 1999 show that there were 24 whose epicenter was within 100 kms of the reaction site, and five earthquakes struck within 40 kms. ''These records are for large earthquakes that can be reliably detected at great distances. There are many smaller earthquakes that can only be observed close to where they take place. Sometimes, these small earthquakes are a sign that a large earthquake may be possible in that area,'' Nayyar added, warning that ''earthquakes and their magnitudes cannot be predicted''.

Dr Nayyar is also critical of the design of the plant saying it is modelled on the Chinese Qinshan reactor with some key components manufactured in China for the first time: ''(The) Qinshan reactor faced a serious problem last year. . . in the design. The Chinese nuclear industry was unable to repair the problem. Chinese do not seem to trust their own manufacturing capability for their future nuclear power.''

Both activist Nayyar and plant deputy manager Siddique agree that the nuclear regulatory process in Pakistan is not independent enough - operators are themselves regulators - although the country's Atomic Energy Commission has been lobbying for legislation to make it autonomous and transparent.

The campaign for greater accountability has been spearheaded by Zia Mian, a physicist from Princeton University (USA) and a Visiting Fellow at the Islamabad-based SDPI, who recently wrote in The News, a leading English-language daily, that ''Given the scale of possible dangers, and having spent almost a decade building the Chashma reactor, it is surely worth taking the time to judge matters calmly and thoughtfully before the real risks are run.

''If after a proper and informed debate the risks from Chashma are judged too great, then the reactor should be abandoned. Certainly money will have been wasted, but such mistakes have been made before. Better money lost than people's lives or the integrity of their environment, which are priceless.''

(Inter Press Service)