Asia Times: ANALYSIS: Talking peace but far from detente



	February 25, 1999	atimes.com

India-Pakistan

ANALYSIS: Talking peace but far from detente
By Praful Bidwai

NEW DELHI - India and Pakistan have a long way togo before they cast off the burden of history and reach a stablesituation of detente. But a good start has been made as theirleaders talk the language of peace and cooperation.

The true significance of the Lahore Declaration by the Indianand Pakistani prime ministers on Sunday, at the end of the Indianpremier's visit, lies in the fact that a strong politicalcommitment has been made by them to normalize strained relations.

They are committed to ''intensify their efforts to resolve allissues, including the issue of Jammu & Kashmir,'' refrain from''intervention and interference in each other's internalaffairs,'' and take some confidence-building measures in thenuclear and conventional military fields.

They also agreed to consult each other on ''WTO-related issueswith a view to coordinating their respective positions'' and tocooperate in information technology, especially the Y2K problem.

The accords fall short of the hope that India and Pakistanwould agree to a no-war or no-aggression pact and undertakespecific measures of nuclear restraint, considered crucial aftertheir test explosions in May.

However, the agreements reached recognize the importance of''immediate steps'' to reduce the risk of war, in particular''accidental or unauthorized use of nuclear weapons under theirrespective control."

The two sides further agreed ''to notify each otherimmediately in the event of any accidental, unauthorized orunexplained incident that could create the risk of a fallout withadverse consequences for both sides, or an outbreak of a nuclearwar. "

India and Pakistan agreed to engage in regular bilateralconsultations on security, disarmament and non-proliferationissues. They also agreed to provide each other advancenotification in respect of missile flight tests, and to concludea ''bilateral agreement in this regard."

These steps do not constitute agreements not to press aheadwith their programs to develop nuclear weapons and missiles.They are but limited measures to promote transparency and bettercommunication.

They are nevertheless welcome given the high risks ofstrategic misconception and miscalculation between India andPakistan, and the potential for unintended, unauthorized oraccidental use of weapons of mass destruction.

It has not been disclosed if these were founded on aninformal, unwritten, commitment by India and Pakistan not todeploy nuclear weapons. But diplomatic sources believe that theremay have been such an undertaking, albeit for a limited period.

This may well be a case of virtue being made out of necessity:Neither India nor Pakistan is close to deploying nuclear warhead-carrying missiles yet, and may lack the capability to do soreliably.

But such an agreement would be a great advance over theboastful claims about technological prowess and the crude displayof nuclear bellicosity between the two states in the weeksfollowing their nuclear tests last summer.

Regrettably, they did not agree to convert their newlyacquired nuclear status into a bargaining counter to demand rapidprogress towards nuclear disarmament on the part of the fiverecognized nuclear states. Nor did they jointly make a commitmentto abstain from nuclear testing or signing the Comprehensive TestBan Treaty.

From Pakistan's point of view, one of the most significantgains from the dialogue was the inclusion of Jammu & Kashmir inthe list of ''issues'' to be discussed and resolved. India hasoften resisted such a reference to Kashmir, refusing to accept that it was a matter of dispute.

From India's point of view, the reciprocal gain is thatKashmir will be effectively put on the backburner, to benegotiated slowly, even as substantial progress is registered ona range of other matters first.

Among the welcome signs of such progress is the mutualagreement to hold ''consultations with a view to furtherliberalizing the visa and travel regime,'' release civiliandetainees, as well as operate the Delhi-Lahore bus service.

Agreements apart, the Indian premier's visit was significantin that he interacted with a wide range of Pakistani citizens,exuded bonhomie and confidence, and visited the Minar-e-Pakistan,a monument to commemorate a 1940 Muslim League resolutiondemanding the creation of a separate state of Pakistan.

In the India-Pakistan context, such symbolic gestures haveextraordinary importance far in excess of formal agreements. Thefact that they were made by a leader of a political party (Hinduright Bharatiya Janata Party) which has never reconciled itselffully to Partition, adds to their importance.

The Pakistani public widely welcomed the gesture. The Indianpublic mood too has been one of support for the Vajpayee visit,and for the continuation of efforts to normalize relations, begununder the previous non-BJP United Front government.

If the framework agreements reached in Lahore are sincerelypursued, and substantive measures are rapidly agreed andimplemented, India and Pakistan could soon reach a historicdetente. They are not there yet.

(Inter Press Service)

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