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| June 7, 2001 | atimes.com | ||
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Global Economy
US rethinks containment of Saddam STRATFOR.COM's Global Intelligence Update Jun 6, 2001 Summary US-led efforts to rein in Saddam Hussein's military, political and economic ambitions have proven ineffective and Washington has finally come to terms with its failed policy in Iraq, which is emerging from a decade of isolation despite America's best efforts to keep it cordoned off. To regain its footing, Washington is compromising with the international community, allowing Baghdad to more easily re-enter the global economic scene. Analysis Iraq is emerging from a decade of isolation despite American efforts to keep it cordoned off. US-led efforts to rein in Saddam Hussein's military, political and economic ambitions are ineffective and have been declared meaningless by much of the international community. UN efforts to prevent Iraq from securing technologies to upgrade its armed forces have failed despite US and British air patrols aimed at monitoring Iraqi military activities. US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said on June 4 that Iraq has improved its air defenses with the help of China and other nations. Moreover, the civilian population has borne the brunt of economic sanctions. To regain its footing, Washington is compromising with the international community, allowing Baghdad to more easily re-enter the global economic scene and freeing it of most international sanctions and constant air patrols. By shifting Saddam's containment to a secondary status, the United States will wield greater influence in the region and, in the process, achieve some of its larger objectives, such as increasing access to oil, reducing the US military presence in the region and counterbalancing Iran's gaining position. Washington has come to terms with its failed policy in Iraq. With London, Washington recently proposed to the UN Security Council that many of the economic sanctions be lifted while monitoring of imported military and commercial items continue. But the so-called "smart sanctions" proposal has floundered. China, Russia and France, among others, have objected to a lengthy list of items that Washington wants to prohibit Iraq from purchasing without prior approval. These items, including telecommunications and related technologies, they assert, would hinder Iraq's ability to recover economically. On June 4, Iraq stopped exporting oil to all but neighboring Turkey and Jordan. The halt was in protest to a Security Council decision to extend by only one month, instead of the usual six, the oil-for-food program. The one-month extension was done to give council members time to study the new US-British proposal. The degree to which Washington's containment policy is outdated was vividly demonstrated when two senior US military commanders recently recommended that US and British air patrols over no-fly zones in northern and southern Iraq, in place since the end of the Gulf War, be scaled back or terminated altogether. Senior military officers fear that Iraqi air defenses have been upgraded to the point where allied pilots are at high risk of being shot down, deepening US military involvement in Iraq at a time when it is seeking to reduce overseas military commitments, particularly open-ended ones. Washington's shift in its Iraqi policy coincides with the re-emergence of Iran as a regional power. Iran continues to advance its military capabilities with the aid of European and Asian countries that regularly provide it with technical know-how and expertise. This has enabled Iran to develop a highly capable arms-manufacturing base of its own. Also worrisome to US policy makers, Iran has recently taken steps to threaten Iraq. In April, Iranian forces attacked Iraqi bases in the most intense rocket barrage since the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War. In yet another hint of possible Iranian military designs toward its neighbor, an estimated 20,000 Iranian troops have been deployed near the Iraqi border this week as part of a major military exercise, according to Middle East Newsline. With both countries coming out of their shell, despite its best efforts, Washington will have greater influence in the region as a whole if it accepts the reality that scrapping the containment policy toward Iraq holds little danger and much benefit. By dropping the policy, it will reap a variety of rewards. In the short term, a lifting of economic sanctions against Iraq will dovetail with Washington's new energy policy emphasizing greater production over thrifty consumption and thus requiring greater access to the region's oil reserves. Iran and Iraq together control about 20 percent of global oil reserves and 18 percent of gas reserves. The two countries' combined oil revenues last year totaled US$45 billion. With the lifting of sanctions against both countries, US corporations will have significant opportunities to profit from the exploration, extraction, transport and sale of these resources. Over the longer term, relegating the containment of Saddam to the back burner in favor of a more regional security policy will help the United States gain more sway in the region than it has enjoyed since the Gulf War while substantially reducing its more than 20,000 military personnel committed there. It will also help the United States influence the direction Iran takes in the coming years. And an opening to Iran will come next, as needed, to keep Saddam in check. Copyright 2001 Strategic Forecasting, LLC. _________________________________ For republication policy contact: STRATFOR, Inc. 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-583-5000 Fax: 512-583-5025 Internet: http://www.stratfor.com/ Email: info@stratfor.com |
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