Asia Times Online


	March 16, 2002	atimes.com

Front

Iranian unrest plays into US hands
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - With US President George W Bush proceeding in his designs to curtail what he terms an axis of evil, Iraq, Iran and North Korea, events are developing that will help him achieve his targets, especially with regard to Iraq.

Bush has continued his rhetoric against Iraq, saying that leader Saddam Hussein is a "problem" and that "we are going to deal with him".

"I am deeply concerned about Iraq," Bush told a Washington news conference. "But the first stage is to consult with allies and friends, and that is exactly what we're doing."

This is a key element of Bush's strategy - working to create a favorable diplomatic environment in which the US can make military strikes against Iraq. This will include cultivating Arab loyalties, and putting pressure on Iran so that it no longer need be considered a part of the axis of evil, which would further isolate Iraq.

However, sources say that apart from a few contacts, the US has no direct access in the internal affairs of Iran that would allow it to manipulate the ruling religious regime there.

Nevertheless, the situation in Iran is evolving in such as manner that the US might be able to exploit it to its own advantage.

Recently, US Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman Joseph Biden invited Iranian law makers to visit Washington, less than two months after Bush's January 29 State of the Union "axis of evil" address.

"I am prepared to receive members of the Iranian majlis [parliament] whenever its members would like to visit," Biden said in an address to members of the Iranian-American Council on Wednesday. He said that Washington should take carefully calibrated steps aimed at assisting those who seek change within Iran.

Iranian President Syed Mohammed Khatami has reportedly responded positively to the invitation, and despite Bush's harsh tone he has welcomed the prospect of dialogue between the two countries at any level.

If a bridge is established between the moderate Khatami ruling party and the US, it would be a severe blow to hardliners in Iran to proceed with their confrontational policies.

Indeed, in recent days Iranian hardliners have suffered major blows, and independent analysts believe that there is now sufficient momentum to silence the voices of the hardliners, who support an intefadah against Israel and the destablization of the interim government of Afghanistan.

Recently, the leader of the interim administration in Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai, admitted that an Iranian general had been arrested in Farah province while helping to organize dissident groups and to provide them with arms and ammunition.

In the current environment, the best policy toward Iran, from the US perspective, appears to be to allow events to develop naturally without direct intervention.

A noted Iranian economist, Mohammed Hussain Adib, has produced research showing a downward trend in the Iranian economy, saying that within four years "a series of simultaneous crises will place the Iranian economy beyond control". He points to 13 percent inflation and stagnant wages that have taken a toll on people's lives. The official joblessness rate is 13.7 percent, but independent analysts place it closer to 20 percent. The average family earns US$3,125 a year, while it spends $3,750. The country is likely to need $130 billion in loans from the West and Asia over the next 12 years just to stay afloat, says Adib.

And the future of Iran's oil revenues are also in doubt. Iran produces 3.7 million barrels a day, 1.6 million of which go to domestic use. But starting in three years, the country will have to give 1.2 million barrels to the oil companies that helped rebuild its energy sector. So unless Iran succeeds in its goal of increasing production to 5 million barrels a day, it will have scant oil left to sell.

Adib's views on Iran joining the World Trade Organization are gaining popularity within the country, with many people blaming economic problems on Iran's closed economy. The way these views have trickled down to the masses is evident from a recent showdown between police and teachers. Thousands of teachers took the streets of Tehran to protest their low salaries. Such demonstrations are unusual in Iran, and observers say that they mark a shift toward change.

Such people as dissident leader Ibrahim Yazdi, a former foreign minister and head of an opposition freedom movement - which was formally accused on November 13 of trying to "progressively overthrow" the regime - also help fan anti-revolution sentiments in Iran and to challenge supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who holds the key to power.

Recently, Khamenei was forced to pardon Iranian member of parliament Hossein Loghmanian after parliament Speaker Mehdi Karroubi announced that he would go on strike unless the MP was released. The authorities promptly released Loghmanian, who had urged that the country must become more democratic to survive.

To add salt to the wounds, soon after his release, Loghmanian said on state radio, "What I said was not a crime, it was a pronouncement of the nation's pain and suffering."

The Sunni-Kurd element is another problem for the Shi'ite religious hardliners. Recently, all six Iranian MPs from western Kurdistan province resigned to protest what they said was discrimination against Iran's Kurd and Sunni Muslim minorities.

These Sunni elements could become an increasing headache for Iran's Shi'ite leadership, and if developments continue at the same pace as they are now, hardliners could steadily become more sidelined - which is exactly what the US would like to see happen.

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