Asia Times: Bush and Putin: Strategic opportunity


	November 10, 2001	atimes.com

Editorials

Bush and Putin: Strategic opportunity

"I think we all have to try and get out of a particular frame of mind about US-Russian relations that just turns it into a newer version of US-Soviet relations," said US National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice, a Soviet/Russia expert, on Thursday. She's got that one right, and one test of whether both sides, in practical terms, are beginning to understand this is the extent to which issues other than nuclear weapons and missile defense which dominated US-Soviet relations are going to figure in the Washington/Crawford, Texas talks between presidents Bush and Putin this coming week.

Don't get us wrong: there's much to be said for reaching quick agreement on nuclear weapons stockpile reduction and modification or scrapping of the 1972 ABM Treaty to allow for US missile defense testing, and getting those irksome matters out of the way, of building a new US-Russian strategic relationship. There is much to be said, in particular, for drastically reducing the numbers of deployed nuclear warheads (US = 7,000; Russia = 6,000) to the 2,000 each range and making airtight arrangements for safeguarding and disposing of Russian nuclear materials. And perhaps all that is best done by both sides making certain mutually acknowledged unilateral decisions rather than endless haggling.

But the reason we want to see the nuclear issues kept from dominating the US-Russian agenda is precisely because willingness to reduce their perceived significance would be indicative of the fact that a new "frame of mind" is coming into place. On the Russian side, it would be indicative of a realistic assessment of the country's strategic role as a regional rather than global power, of the security requirements this implies, and of abandonment of the Cold War habit of making the most of any foreign policy misstep or calamity that befalls the US. On the American side, it would underwrite that Cold War fears have been put aside for good and are being replaced by the acknowledgement that a politically stable, economically and militarily secure Russia could become a valuable strategic partner rather than reinvigorated future enemy.

On both sides the first steps in the right direction have been taken, catalyzed by the events of September 11 and subsequent policy actions. President Putin, not without some diehard cold warriors' objections, has expressed Russia's full backing for the US war on terrorism, is offering intelligence and logistical cooperation, and is supportive of the assistance extended by several former Central Asian Soviet republics to the war effort in Afghanistan. If the Al-Qaeda/Taliban combine is not decisively defeated, he said at the recent Shanghai APEC summit, terrorists will conclude they are invincible. The administration of President Bush, in turn, is prepared to scrap the Cold War 1974 Jackson-Vanik Amendment restricting trade, to lend active support for Russia's early WTO entry, to consider partial forgiveness of Soviet-era Russian foreign debt, and to give up favoring pipelines taking Caspian Sea oil to the West on southern routes bypassing Russia. Beyond the economic dimension, cautious US political support for Russia's military anti-terrorist campaign in Chechnya has been expressed and some US officials now no longer even rule out eventual Russian NATO membership.

When Putin and Bush initially meet next Tuesday in Washington, it will be in the presence of their national security teams and the war on terrorism and nuclear issues will be on the agenda. This will be followed by a luncheon attended by senior US economic officials to discuss business issues. The two leaders will then meet again on Wednesday and Thursday at Bush's Texas ranch. Good rapport between them has been established and it can be expected that the new "frame of mind" will become visible in their joint press conferences - though, of course, reporters' questions often have a way putting undue emphasis on the unimportant. Minimally, it will become clear, however, that Russia's backing for the war on terror remains firm and may be upgraded while the US will reciprocate with substantive economic measures and investment deals. With Russia's support, the US-built war coalition has an optimal chance of holding together; with US support, Russia has a chance of leaving behind for good the first post-Cold War decade's debilitating economic morass and deconstruction and becoming a key alternative strategic energy provider to the Middle East.

Condoleezza Rice says a new US-Russian strategic partnership will take time to build and there will not be any one "defining moment" that establishes it. But its promulgation over time is clearly in the two nations' best mutual interest. Both Putin and Bush know it, and the first significant strides will be made in the days immediately ahead.

((c)2001 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact ads@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)