Asia Times: Japan: It's the electorate, stupid!


	March 28, 2000	atimes.com

Editorials

Japan: It's the electorate, stupid!

Once again Liberal Party President Ichiro Ozawa is threatening to withdraw his party from the tri-partite coalition government ruling Japan - perhaps as early as the end of this month. Reportedly, he is dissatisfied with progress in several policy areas agreed to last October when the Liberal Democratic Party-led coalition, which also includes New Komeito, was formed. He also seems unhappy with foot-dragging over a joint strategy for lower house elections which must be held by no later than October 20. Ozawa, say party sources, now believes that the Liberals would be better off campaigning separately and flying their own colors in the run-up to the polls.

Recalling that it was Ozawa's withdrawal from the LDP back in 1993 that precipitated heavy LDP election losses that year and brought to an end its 37 years of uninterrupted rule, one might be tempted to welcome an Ozawa move to go it alone at this stage and bring at least a modicum of life to Japan's political scene. The government of Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi surely needs a wake-up call, and a strong one at that. But would an LP withdrawal now make a difference? Would the party be able to present a reform program to voters that addresses the single most important policy issue, drastic business deregulation, without which the few signs of economic recovery will not blossom into long-term sustainable upturn?

Cherry blossoms are beginning to show in the south of Japan and soon the annual rite of hanami - sake-enhanced admiration of sakura - will reach Tokyo. It's the time of year when much thought is given to new beginnings, much as policymakers are putting the outgoing fiscal year behind them and firm up plans for the new. But one is also reminded that after a few days in full bloom, those decorative cherry trees bear no fruit. Ozawa's timing is impeccable and if he goes through with shake-up plans, a flurry of political activity will ensue. But to what end?

It depends on his determination and whether he still has the same flair and reform convictions that propelled him into the role of king-maker in the early 1990s. Even more so, however, the outcome depends on the Japanese voter. Last Friday, former US Commerce Department negotiator and Japan critic Clyde Prestowitz met with Yukio Hatoyama, leader of the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan, and asked him why the public was not protesting against the Obuchi administration, which he said had repeatedly demonstrated its incompetence. Hatoyama was quoted as having replied that, ''People have not been able to overcome the disappointment they felt when the administration of former Prime Minister Morihiro Hosokawa, which brought to an end the long-established LDP rule, failed to carry out reforms.''

That's a telling enough reply in more ways than one. In one sense, it may very well be true that voters were disappointed and thus switched their support back to the LDP. But that was five years and a great deal of economic misery and demonstrated LDP incompetence ago. What remains unexplained is why even now, a few protest votes like those that elected the maverick Shintaro Ishihara governor of Tokyo aside, the electorate remains apathetic. And equally unexplained is why Hatoyama's party has failed so miserably to make headway against the hidebound LDP.

While some blame falls to Hatoyama and his party for not having rallied popular support against the Obuchi regime, we suspect the problem lies deeper - with the voters themselves. Though a decade of miserable economic performance has imposed a few hardships here and there, the Japanese population by and large has not personally experienced a sense of crisis. To the extent it feels threatened, it probably feels more threatened by the type of changes drastic business deregulation and reform would bring than from the long-term consequences of the lack of reform. The LDP and New Komeito have zeroed in on that sentiment and thus are backtracking on reform in advance of the fall elections. And Hatoyama and Ozawa, all their reform talk aside, are clearly worried that by playing up reform they may be betting on the wrong horse.

So, what can be done and what will happen in the election? Very little, is the unfortunate but realistic answer. Short of dramatic (but unlikely) economic downturn, reform in Japan will come at a snail's pace. The elections will not bring significant political realignments - indeed, what use is realignment among parties and politicians that differ little in their outlook? The only real hope we see for a changed Japan is from changes in the business world brought about by young entrepreneurs shaking up things, all political and regulatory obstacles notwithstanding. As they succeed, they will set the example for others to follow. Politicians will not.

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