Asia Times: Zhu's Delhi visit: a chance for peace


	January 11, 2002	atimes.com

China

Zhu's Delhi visit: a chance for peace
By Francesco Sisci

BEIJING - On Sunday, Zhu Rongji will arrive in New Delhi for the first visit by a Chinese prime minister to India in 11 years. This is an important sign of the renewed attention China is paying to India, remarked Fu Ying, director-general for Asia of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, during a crowded briefing here.

It is too early to conceive a total thaw between the two countries. Zhu's five-day mission to India will be mainly concentrated on economic issues. Bilateral trade is wobbling at a mere US$3 billion, well below potential. China is interested in cooperating with Bangalore's software industry and in exporting more of its light industry to India.

However, politics will play a big role in this trip. The two sides will broach the issue of Afghanistan, on which, despite the official pledge of a common position, China and India have some very different ideas. Moreover, there is dialogue on terrorism: in November there was a first round of talks in Beijing between China and India, and the two sides could decide to make this a regular event.

The talks are extremely delicate, as they largely focus on the two countries' mutual relations with Pakistan. It is no secret that, for at least a decade, militants acting both in Chinese Xinjiang and in Indian Kashmir have had links to Pakistan. For complex reasons, however, China and India have differed in their approaches to the issue of Pakistan. While China has maintained a solid alliance with Islamabad, pulling strings with the Pakistani secret service to keep things under some control, India has stuck to a clearly confrontational attitude toward its neighbor.

The intervention by the United States in Afghanistan has now reshuffled all the cards in the deck. Pakistan's support for the Taliban and for militants in Xinjiang has come to an end, and India is now pressing Islamabad to do the same with groups acting in Kashmir. This is the real aim of the military build-up on the India-Pakistan border after the bloody attack on the Indian parliament. Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf is complying, but Kashmir seems to be an issue more complicated than Afghanistan at the moment, touching a vital nerve in both Pakistan and India.

Zhu's trip will help ease the situation. It is highly unlikely that New Delhi and Islamabad will clash militarily while Zhu is in India - it would be an offense to the Chinese guest. These few days will thus be important for cooling down the situation at the border, and maybe even to start withdrawing troops. If this were to take place, the important bilateral mutual understanding sought by China with this trip would have made a step forward. It would be the second time that China had played a crucial role in a clash between India and Pakistan. The first was during the Kargil crisis in 1999.

However, this role won't make China switch sides between Pakistan and India - the warming-up with India will only go hand-in-hand with good ties with Pakistan. China is aware of the great dangers of isolating Pakistan, which would further destabilize the country, and thus endanger the security of the whole South Asia front. Besides, China has always been loyal to its old friends and wants to be, and to be seen as, a reliable partner.

From the Indian side there is the wish to be treated on an equal footing, without the deference that Indians feel Chinese sometime demand. If relations are improved, then dialogue on the tricky border issue could make some progress and so could the situation in Pakistan.

It will be a trip of fine-tuning, where the personal character of the protagonists, Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji, will play an important role. And where, for a time, Kashmir could unite and not divide everybody. ((c)2001 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact ads@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)