July 15, 2000	atimes.com

China COMMENTARY Beijing must factor into US missile equation By Greg May* WASHINGTON - As it plunges ahead with its plan to deploy a limited national missile defense (NMD) system, the United States is making a great effort to overcome Russian opposition. But it is actually the reaction of China that will be the decisive factor in whether a missile defense system will ultimately improve US security or lead to a new arms race. Unfortunately, Washington is paying scant attention to the potential impact missile defense will have on America's strategic relations with the world's most populous nation. Beijing's opposition to missile defense must be analyzed in the context of China's glaring vulnerability. Unlike Russia, which has more than enough missiles (well over 1,000) to overwhelm a limited NMD system, China has only around 20 ICBMs, all DF-5s, capable of hitting North America. A liquid-fueled, silo-based behemoth with a single nuclear warhead, the DF-5 takes several hours to prepare for flight. In the event of a pre-emptive nuclear strike, China would be lucky to get any of its DF-5s in the air. When an NMD system is added to the mix, China worries that even this minimal deterrent capability will be rendered invalid. Adding to Beijing's anxiety is the perception that US enthusiasm for missile defense is inversely proportional to its interest in traditional arms control. The Senate's failure to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) last year, Washington's cool reaction to Moscow's offer to cut nuclear arsenals to 1,500 warheads, and America's eagerness to scrap the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty all give Chinese leaders the impression that the US is more interested in solidifying its absolute strategic advantage than achieving meaningful disarmament. Finally, China believes American missile defense programs will harm its regional interests. In addition to NMD, the US also plans to deploy theater missile defense (TMD) in East Asia. Japan is already a partner in TMD and Taiwan wants to join. Beijing worries that a US-led TMD effort will expand America's influence in East Asia and blunt China's short- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles, which China uses to compensate for its poor navy and air force. Most importantly, Beijing fears TMD's extension to Taiwan would create a de facto alliance between Taipei, Washington, and Tokyo that would destroy any chance of China-Taiwan reunification. None of this is to say that missile defense is a bad idea simply because China dislikes it. China cannot dictate US decisions and it is ridiculous to suggest, as Beijing often does, that America has an obligation to leave itself and its allies completely vulnerable to missile strikes. However, the US would be foolish to ignore China's concerns - that would only insure maximum damage to US-China relations. There are several key factors that will determine whether the US can pursue missile defense while avoiding a new Cold War with China. The first is whether the US can remain calm in the face of China's inevitable missile modernization. China will likely deploy its DF-41 - a new solid-fueled and road-mobile missile capable of reaching most parts of the US - sometime between 2005 and 2010. Regardless of America's decisions about NMD, China has good reason to want to replace its sitting duck DF-5s. NMD, however, will likely prompt China to increase its total number of ICBMs and to equip them with countermeasures designed to defeat missile interceptors in order to maintain a minimum deterrent. Americans should be careful not to jump to the conclusion that China's development of the DF-41 signals growing Chinese hostility or that China is emerging as a Soviet-like threat. The second factor is whether the US can maintain the momentum behind arms control and disarmament. Cutting the US nuclear force to the bare minimum, as George W Bush has suggested, would help make missile defense more palatable to both Beijing and Moscow. China is less likely to expand its strategic forces if the US and Russia are making progress towards reducing their massive Cold War arsenals. The third key factor will be whether the US extends TMD to Taiwan. Taiwan wants to join TMD as a way of boosting its security ties with the United States and Japan. But given Taiwan's proximity to China, a costly TMD system capable of intercepting missiles at very high altitudes does not necessarily make military sense. South Korea has opted out of TMD due to similar cost-benefit concerns. Rather than officially include Taiwan in a region-wide TMD effort, the US could continue to provide Taiwan with ''low-tier'' missile defense technology - including upgraded Patriot missiles and early-warning radar - while giving Taiwan additional cover via sea-based TMD on American warships. The final factor is whether the United States will be able to engage China in deeper strategic dialogue. As an emerging economic power, China will be able to build a much larger strategic arsenal if it chooses. The United States has an overwhelming interest in ensuring that China's nuclear force remains small. For its part, China wants to avoid the huge expense of maintaining a massive-strike capability, but it worries that its security is eroding in the face of overwhelming American advantage. Given the impact China's actions will have on the future security environment, Moscow is not the only place the US president must make his case for missile defense. *Greg May is assistant director of The Nixon Center, a non-partisan research organization in Washington, DC. (This article was distributed by The Global Beat Syndicate, a service of New York University's Center for War, Peace, and the News Media. (c) 2000 New York University. All Rights Reserved. For more information on Global Beat, check out http://www.nyu.edu/globalbeat)

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