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THE MIDDLE KINGDOM: Strait talk By Bradley Martin
Don't expect Taiwan to be in a big hurry to expand to all its main-island ports the new policy that will permit direct trade between some small Taiwan Strait islands and the Chinese mainland. The gesture by the Kuomintang-controlled legislature is just a gesture, for now, intended to cool down post-election tensions.
To a great extent it simply recognizes a fait accompli. Without either side trying terribly hard to stop them, enterprising traders (all right, smugglers) from both sides as well as visitors have been going back and forth in vessels plying between Taiwan's offshore islands such as Quemoy, Matsu and Penghu and such mainland ports as Xiamen and Mawei.
And trial direct shipments across the strait between the mainland's Xiamen and Taiwan's major Kaohsiung port began in January, according to an article last Friday in Beijing's China Daily. Xiamen handled 49,453 TEUs (20-foot containers or the equivalent) destined for Kaohsiung in January and February, the paper said.
Regarding the much wider opening that China and some Taiwanese business interests have sought, however, the military implications might be worrisome. The Taiwanese armed forces would find their task of guarding airspace and territorial waters much harder if Chinese civilian ships and planes could come and go freely, defense ministry officials have said.
One of their fears is that mainland Chinese vessels disguised as civilian fishing or cargo ships could sneak in troops and heavy mililtary equipment in preparation for an attack. There's no paranoia involved here. Last year this column noted reports of a plan in Beijing to reconfigure and arm civilian cargo ships so that they could do wartime duty as troop transports.
Taiwan's military defenders also worry that ''civilian'' ships could use their access for other military purposes such as mining Taiwan's harbors, which themselves also function in some cases as military ports. And survey vessels disguised as fishing craft could freely survey and map Taiwan's shipping lanes.
Regarding these latter concerns, the horse may already be out of the barn. A mainland officer boasted to the respected Hong Kong daily Ming Pao last year that the submarines of the People's Liberation Army had been roaming about freely in Taiwanese territorial waters, even entering major ports, and knew those waters as well as those of the mainland.
Despite its worries about a full opening, Taiwan's military has shown itself willing to go along with a partial opening. After all, World Trade Organization rules would eventually require it, if both were WTO members.
At a December hearing in Taiwan's Legislative Yuan, or parliament, a defense ministry official asked lawmakers to limit the first stage of opening to certain specific harbors, at certain times, with the routes carefully prescribed. Presumably the Executive Yuan, or cabinet, will take those suggestions into account in coming weeks as it decides how to translate the legislators' decree into detailed regulations.
(Special to Asia Times Online)
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