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Why Beijing fears a Chen victory By Antoaneta Bezlova
BEIJING - As Taiwan goes to the polls on Saturday, predictions that Chen Shui-bian, the opposition Democratic Progressive Party candidate, will become Taiwan's next president and end the Kuomintang's 50-year rule on the island, are making the Chinese leadership increasingly nervous.
On the surface, what the mainland's leaders fear is the platform of Chen's party which calls for ''the establishment of a sovereign and independent Republic of Taiwan''. Beijing considers Taiwan a "renegade province", the last piece of its reunification crusade, that sooner or later must be brought back to the embrace of the motherland.
Beyond that, the fear of the Chinese Communist Party is that if Taiwanese voters elect Chen, this would mark the end of one-party rule on the island and the beginning of a new, truly democratic regime.
The Kuomintang has been in power ever since the defeated troops of its supremo, Chiang Kai-shek, fled the mainland in 1949 and established a government-in-exile in Taiwan. The Kuomintang has governed the island for 50 years, or as long as its arch-rival, the Communist Party, has ruled the mainland.
The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has vowed to introduce sweeping political reforms and part with the corruption and cronyism of the Kuomintang. It is this platform of the DPP that rings apocalyptic bells for the leadership in Beijing.
Weakened by the decline of its increasingly feeble ideology and grappling with stagnating economic reform, China's leadership is reluctant to see any political change across the Taiwan Strait. It fears that any change of the status quo would bring along changes on a range of issues - from relations with China to economic policy and the political system.
Beijing has denounced incumbent Taiwanese president Lee Teng-hui as the ''biggest criminal in history'' but it still prefers to deal with his annointed successor and Kuomintang candidate, current Vice-President Lien Chan, than with the new generation of Taiwan leaders like Chen Shui-bian.
Fearing that momentum for Chen has been growing over the past week, Beijing on Wednesday and Thursday pulled out all the stops in a last-ditch effort to influence Taiwanese voters when they go to the polls on Saturday. On Wednesday, Premier Zhu Rongji threatened and then pleaded with Taiwanese voters to shun Chen. Zhu said he did not wish to interfere in the poll, but expressed hope Taiwan people would vote the ''right way''.
The threats coming from Beijing seem the more unfitting because in the past year, Chen Shui-bian has moved away from supporting independence for Taiwan. If elected, Chen has pledged not to declare independence, not to hold a referendum on the issue and not to put the phrase "special state-to-state" relations into Taiwan's constitution. Those words, which current President Lee Teng-hui put forward last July, infuriated China and set off a war of words across the strait.
On Thursday, Beijing toughened its warning to Taiwan by saying the timetable for reunification is in hands of Taiwan voters. ''If they choose a leader who advocates Taiwan independence [ie Chen], this timetable may well not be a question of years but of a few dozen hours,'' said researcher Xu Bodong at a news conference on the Taiwan issue.
Li Jiaquan, of the directorate of the Taiwan Studies Society, said: ''If you are for peaceful reunification, the timetable could be longer. But if you are moving toward Taiwan independence, it is hard to say. It could be three to five years, or there could be a change within 24 hours.''
Despite the barrage of threats flying over the strait, Chen is defiant. In response to Zhu Rongji's menacing message, Chen said Taiwan could not agree with Zhu's views and that Taiwanese voters would not be intimidated by the "threats of bullets".
''The Chinese communists want to turn Taiwan into a province whereas we are a country with independent sovereignty,'' Chen told a campaign rally on Wednesday night. ''We don't want 'one country, two systems'. Taiwan voters don't want Taiwan to become like Hong Kong and Macau.''
(Inter Press Service)
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