March 8, 2000	atimes.com

China The one-China plot thickens in Pyongyang STRATFOR.COM's Global Intelligence Update March 7, 2000 Summary With Taiwan's elections less than two weeks away, China has not only strengthened its warnings against independence but increased diplomatic contacts with North Korea. North Korean leader Kim Jong-il recently paid an unusual visit to the Chinese embassy in Pyongyang. China appears to lack the political will to launch an aggressive military operation - and a crisis - like the one that took place in the Taiwan Strait in 1996. Yet, Beijing appears to be positioning itself to coordinate simultaneous challenges alongside North Korea, sending a powerful warning to the United States, with less risk of conflict. Analysis Amid intensified Chinese rhetoric directed against Taiwan, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il paid an uncharacteristic visit on March 5 to the Chinese embassy in Pyongyang. Kim's visit occurred on the same day that Chinese Central Military Commission (CMC) vice-chairman Zhang Wannian, in advance of Taiwan's March 18 elections, stated bluntly, ''Taiwan independence means war.'' Kim's embassy visit and the increased bellicosity in Beijing may not be as unrelated as they first appear. China is searching for a way to pressure Taiwan and send a message to the United States, without drawing substantial international repercussions. While a repeat of the 1996 missile tests in the Taiwan Strait would interfere with China's current international relations, a coordinated action, with North Korea in the Yellow Sea and China in the Taiwan Strait, can send an even more powerful message with less risk. Beijing is looking for a way to influence Taiwan's presidential elections and prevent Taipei from making further moves toward independence. In addition, China wants to make it clear to the United States that Taiwan remains a sovereign part of mainland China; any attempt to interfere with this, particularly by supplying Taiwan with arms, is unacceptable. But Beijing is politically and strategically unprepared to initiate a conflict at this time. Not only is it in China's economic interest to maintain an open door to the United States and other Western nations. Beijing does not yet possess the military capability to defeat Taiwan in a war. China's actions during March will likely determine its accession to the World Trade Organization and increased US defense cooperation with Taiwan. Any direct provocation would give Taiwan the added evidence needed to gain increased international and US military support. While an invasion of Taiwan - or even a repeat of the 1996 missile tests in the Taiwan Strait - is unlikely, Beijing still emphasizes its determination against a more independent Taiwan. But the government in Beijing is looking for ways that don't trigger an immediate crisis. Beijing has resorted to increased rhetoric, threatened timetables for reunification and talk of a Sino-Russian strategic alliance to establish ''a just and reasonable new world order''. Renewing the focus on North Korea, as signaled by Kim's visit, presents a major opportunity for Beijing to increase the impact of the threat, while minimizing the risk. The governments of China and North Korea have steadily warmed ties recently. During the tensions last summer over Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui's declaration of state-to-state relations with China, China and North Korea reaffirmed military ties and began preparation for a series of high-level exchanges, including a potential visit of Kim Jong-il to Beijing. Some have speculated that Kim's recent visit to the embassy is an attempt to make up for not having traveled to Beijing. But Pyongyang's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) stated that Kim's visit on March 5 was ''on the occasion of the New Year 2000'' at the request of the Chinese ambassador. It is likely that the visit had greater implications. For Kim, who rarely meets foreign guests, going to a foreign embassy is an unusual move. The visit emphasizes the heightened level of Chinese-North Korean relations. Rather than the Chinese ambassador going to Kim, he came to the embassy, clearly showing that China is calling the shots. Stronger relations at this time between China and North Korea lay the groundwork for a potentially troubling situation for the United States. In addition to concern about the Taiwan Strait, the United States faces problems in the Yellow Sea. On March 3, North Korean Navy Command announced the nullification of the Northern Limit Line (NLL), the maritime extension of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) on Korea's west coast. Following the declaration, South Korea's JoongAng Ilbo reported that North Korea was conducting high-speed attack training in the Yellow Sea under the guise of search and rescue training. The North Korean action raises the possibility of repeating the June 1999 firefight with South Korean vessels in the same area that ended with the sinking of a North Korean ship. The confrontation raised tensions in the area and prompted the United States to send two Aegis-class cruisers and aerial reconnaissance to monitor the situation. North Korea is once again pushing its maritime boundaries along Korea's west coast. The timing matches a series of upcoming North Korean political exchanges, including a planning session this week to prepare for a high-level visit by a North Korean official to the United States. Prior to such meetings, North Korea often raises tensions in order to highlight a particular issue it wishes to be foremost on the table. With Taiwan's elections approaching, China is looking for a way to impress its resolve upon the United States over the status of the island. At the same time, Beijing is not prepared to jeopardize its international relations and trigger increased military aid to Taiwan. A North Korean provocation along the Korean peninsula, coupled with Chinese exercises in the Taiwan Strait, targets one of the United States' greatest concerns - two simultaneous high- intensity conflicts. While gaining maximum political impact, China reduces its risks in not having to hold live fire exercises in the Taiwan Strait - rather it may simply hold naval and air maneuvers. In this way, China does not directly threaten Taiwan and minimizes US justification to respond. As well, given North Korea's own motives, China can distance itself from North Korea's actions. If Taiwan continues to lean toward independence, Beijing and Pyongyang may coordinate a simultaneous, yet low-risk, provocation in the Yellow Sea and the Taiwan. (c) 2000, Stratfor, Inc. http://www.stratfor.com/ _________________________________ For republication policy contact: STRATFOR, Inc. 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-583-5000 Fax: 512-583-5025 Internet: http://www.stratfor.com/ Email: info@stratfor.com

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