June 30, 1999	atimes.com

China After Kosovo, U.S. looks to Asia problems By Jim Lobe WASHINGTON - Asia could well dominate U.S. foreign policy as pre-occupation with Kosovo and trans-Atlantic relations recedes. The U.S. administration faces three major challenges across the Pacific which, if not properly addressed, could create serious problems for its interests in the region and beyond. The challenges are straightforward but daunting: to end the battles between India and Pakistan in Kashmir; to coax China back into talks aimed at ensuring its membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO); and to dissuade North Korea from further tests of its new long- range missiles. Official Washington is emerging from the Kosovo crisis, which has consumed top policy-makers in the White House, the Pentagon and the State Department ever since the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) began its air campaign Mar 24. While Washington achieved virtually all of its main objectives in the war - and appears even to have made progress in mending fences with Russia - President Bill Clinton and his foreign-policy team are widely seen as having been more lucky than skillful. The result is that, as Clinton faces new challenges in Asia, he cannot count on support at home - particularly not from Republicans, who accuse him of being too friendly towards China and North Korea. The Kashmir conflict - the most serious clash between Indian and Pakistani forces since their 1971 war - affects U.S. interests least directly but has top officials here increasingly worried. Washington has called on both sides to respect the Line of Control separating Indian-controlled and Pakistani-controlled Kashmir. This is an implicit criticism of Pakistan, which, U.S. officials say, clearly aided guerrilla ''infiltrators'' who occupied strategic heights on India's side of the line earlier this year. Last week, Clinton dispatched U.S. Central Command chief Gen. Anthony Zinni to urge Islamabad to secure the retreat of all Pakistan-backed forces behind the Line. ''It's pretty clear that if Pakistan doesn't back off, India is going to clobber them,'' says a senior official, who notes that New Delhi could take the battle to another point along the frontier, thus spreading and escalating the conflict between the nuclear neighbours. ''It's a very dangerous situation,'' according to the official. While the South Asian crisis is more acute, Sino-U.S. ties - particularly the dramatic upsurge in nationalist and anti-U.S. sentiment following the accidental bombing of Beijing's Belgrade embassy during the Kosovo war - are of deep and growing concern here. Beijing, already furious about NATO's failure to seek UN Security Council authorisation to attack Yugoslavia, suspended all bilateral military co-operation and talks on its WTO membership - a top priority for Clinton - pending a satisfactory explanation of the bombing. Washington's first formal attempt to explain has been rejected by Beijing, adding to concern here that anti-U.S. forces in the Chinese leadership have the wind in their sails. The same forces have been strengthened by other U.S. actions which they see as designed to ''contain,'' if not destabilize, China. These include the new U.S. security pact with Japan; its weapons sales to Taiwan, which also may be included in a new theater- missile defence system; its resolution at the UN Human Rights Commission condemning Beijing's rights performance; and congressional charges of Chinese nuclear espionage. China's diplomats here also are irked by last week's U.S. vote against a World Bank project that included a proposal to settle poor Chinese in an area considered by pro-Tibet activists to be Tibetan ancestral lands. The bank approved the project but put the transmigration plan on hold. ''There's clearly now a real debate [about relations with the United States] going on, and it is not yet resolved,'' says one veteran administration China-watcher, who notes that the time for reaching a WTO accord - before the organization's ministerial meeting in November - is quickly running out. During a trip here in April, Chinese premier Zhu Rongji laid out terms for a deal, which Clinton initially rejected. When U.S. business protested vehemently, Clinton asked Zhu to intensify the talks. But the embassy bombing has made it politically impossible for Zhu to resume negotiations. Publicly, U.S. officials are still optimistic that talks will recommence soon, but privately they say that Beijing is sending mixed messages. ''It's very difficult to know how this will come out,'' says the China-watcher. There is similar uncertainty about North Korea, which is frequently mentioned as the country, next to Iraq, against which the United States is most likely to go to war. Last month, Clinton sent former Pentagon chief William Perry to Pyongyang with the outlines of a proposed deal: Washington would gradually normalize relations, lift 50-year-old economic sanctions, and provide bilateral assistance if North Korea promised to stop testing and selling ballistic missiles and developing nuclear weapons. Pyongyang greeted Perry warmly but, within a week of his departure, engaged the South Korean navy in a brief but lethal battle. It has since reportedly begun preparations to test a long- range missile capable of hitting the northwest coast of the United States. ''If that test goes forward, all hell's going to break loose,'' says one administration official, who predicts that a new launch would stop all efforts to promote detente - not just with Washington, but with Tokyo and probably Seoul, too. A new obstacle emerged Friday, when the State Department revealed that a U.S. citizen visiting a North Korean economic zone was arrested Jun 17. U.S. officials are not despairing, however. Combined with signs of belligerence are more positive indications, including the successful completion of an unprecedented U.S. inspection of a suspected North Korean nuclear site and the continuation, if delayed, of separate bilateral talks last week with South Korea and with the United States. ''There's a big effort under way to try to convince the North that a missile launch would not be a good thing,'' says the official. ''In spite of all this, there's a feeling that it really does want to engage us." (Inter Press Service)

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