May 14, 1999	atimes.com

China U.S. hopes to ride out China crisis By Jim Lobe WASHINGTON - With demonstrations against the U.S. embassy in Beijing winding down, political sources here believe that the NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade should not seriously disrupt Sino-American ties. Still, the same sources add that the bombing, which destroyed the embassy and killed three Chinese journalists living there, cannot help but fuel an ongoing debate within the Beijing leadership about its relations with Washington, as well as rising nationalism displayed by the public at large. ''I'm more worried about the longer-term implications,'' said one senior administration official. ''There are some attitudes developing in China which this incident will reinforce." The sometimes violent demonstrations in Beijing, which left U.S. Ambassador James Sasser virtually trapped inside the embassy for three days, also is being used by forces here who oppose President Bill Clinton's ''strategic partnership'' policy. The government's tolerance - most say orchestration - of the protests confirmed to U.S. policy foes that Beijing is fundamentally hostile to the United States. ''Instead of trying to contain the damage to diplomatic relations, as any friendly nation would have after such an obvious if tragic mistake, the Chinese Government used its vast propaganda machine to whip up anti-American hysteria,'' said Robert Kagan, a leading anti-China hawk, writing in The New York Times. But most analysts here see the Chinese government's role in the weekend's events as precisely an effort to contain, by co-opting, genuine outrage against Washington for the bombing. ''If the government hadn't taken control, it could've been a lot worse,'' according to Nicholas Lardy, a China specialist at the Brookings Institution here. He predicts that the protests will end soon, and Beijing will then return to ''major substantive issues,'' including its push for admission to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its role in the UN Security Council in approving or changing a resolution to settle the war over Kosovo. Lardy and others see the decision by China's government- controlled media to publish Clinton's apology for the bombing Tuesday as clear evidence - along with the winding down of the demonstrations themselves - that the Beijing leadership is trying to calm emotions. ''It indicates that they themselves now may want to start to bring closure to this whole issue,'' said Sasser in TV broadcast from Beijing. ''We've been asking them to let their people know that we are truly sorry for what happened and that it was an accident,'' noted a senior government official. ''Until now, the Chinese had no reason to believe that this was a mistake, rather than an intentional attack." Aside from the demonstrations, Beijing suspended military exchanges and talks on arms-control and proliferation talks with Washington to protest the bombing. China made four demands of what it called ''U.S.-led NATO:'' an ''open and official apology;'' a thorough investigation; prompt disclosure of the investigation's results; and serious punishment for those responsible for the attack. These demands will not be difficult to satisfy, according to analysts here. ''If this was really upsetting them, they could have taken much stronger steps - such as withdrawing their ambassador, kicking ours out, making life difficult for U.S. business - but the signals are all in the opposite direction,'' said the senior official. Still, he and others do not dismiss the longer-term consequences of the bombing incident to a relationship which is already suffering its share of troubles. ''There was a debate in China in recent weeks already . . . about whether the leadership has been too soft on the United States, somewhat echoing the debate in this country about our China policy,'' according to Winston Lord, a former ambassador to Beijing who was Clinton's top Asia adviser during his first term. ''I think those in the leadership that are more hard line, including the military, will use this as leverage, and those who are more moderate have got to protect their flanks and not look too soft,'' he said. Beijing has collected a number of grievances in past months. It protested Washington's decision to introduce a resolution condemning its human rights performance at the annual meeting of the UN Human Rights Commission last month and voiced resentment at ongoing congressional investigations into charges it systematically stole U.S. weapons secrets over the past 15 years. In addition, China has objected strongly to new U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and American plans to build theater missile defense systems throughout Asia, including Taiwan, which it regards as a renegade province. Moreover, Japan's recent decision to upgrade its military alliance with Washington - at the same time that NATO unilaterally expanded its geographic scope and launched the air campaign against Yugoslavia over Kosovo without first gaining the Security Council's approval - have raised new alarms among Beijing's hardliners. Also still significant are trade tensions - fuelled by China's record $60-billion trade surplus and Clinton's rejection last month of a far-reaching WTO deal brought to him by Premier Zhu Rongji, a leader of the faction in favour of improving ties with Washington. ''The bombing has vindicated those leaders who view U.S. intentions [both in the Balkans and toward China] in the most negative light possible, and these voices are undoubtedly being paid more heed,'' Jonathan Pollack, a China expert at the Rand Corporation, wrote in the Los Angeles Times Tuesday. He called Beijing's decision to exploit popular revulsion over the bombing ''deeply disquieting." But Lardy, an economist, says he sees no solid evidence that Zhu or other, more pro-Western leaders are ''on the ropes. . . . There's too much momentum and too much benefit'' in constructive ties with Washington and integration into the global economic system, he says. (Inter Press Service)

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