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	April 08, 1999	atimes.com

China

COMMENTARY: Resentment and reliance in Sino-U.S. ties
By Abid Aslam

WASHINGTON - Chinese Prime Minister Zhu Rongji starts a controversial tour of the United States this week amid signs of mutual resentment - and reliance - in Sino-U.S. relations.

Zhu is scheduled to arrive in Los Angeles Tuesday on his first visit to the United States as premier, according to officials in Beijing and at the Chinese embassy in Washington.

He will then travel to Washington for talks with U.S. President Bill Clinton and Vice President Al Gore before visiting Denver, Chicago, New York and Boston before leaving for Canada.

Zhu's trip had been called into question last Thursday, when foreign ministry officials in Beijing refused to confirm the dates of his travel.

That appeared to reflect debate among senior Chinese officials about the merits of visiting the United States while the countries are at bitter odds over Western military intervention in Yugoslavia.

The previous week, Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov aborted his trip to Washington in mid-flight to protest the U.S.-led air strikes.

Other issues currently damaging Sino-U.S. relations include:

* Washington's plans for an East Asian missile defence shield that would extend to Taiwan, which Beijing considers a renegade province;

* Charges here that China has engaged in nuclear espionage at U.S. research laboratories; and

* U.S. sponsorship of a resolution criticizing China on human rights at the United Nations Human Rights Commission in Geneva;

Despite the political resentment, the two sides rely on each other in the economic sphere.

Washington needs Beijing to maintain the value of its currency, the yuan, to prevent a new round of financial contagion in fragile Asia. Beijing, facing an economic slow-down, needs U.S. export markets like never before.

Not that economic relations are worry-free. China's export-driven economy, having turned in a $57 billion trade deficit with the United States last year, is slowing. Washington wants to prevent a devaluation but Beijing may see this as the only way to keep its export industries running.

The importance of the U.S. market - and of Congressional renewal of China's Most Favored Nation trading status - is underscored by predictions that economic growth in China could fall to five percent this year from 7.8 percent last year.

Although many details of Zhu's agenda remain to be revealed, the Chinese leader is expected to meet business leaders and corporate lobbyists who will seek to head off trade restrictions when Congress discusses renewal of the Export Administration Act.

Restrictions would imperil U.S. companies' business in China even in such sectors as low-end business computers, manufacturers argue. Major domestic firms such as Intel, IBM, and Unisys sell billions of dollars worth of goods to China each year.

Congressional antipathy toward China is being bolstered by newspaper headlines suggesting that Beijing stole nuclear technology from U.S. research institutions. Suspicion of Chinese high-tech development predates the latest scare, however.

Last year, the Republican-controlled U.S. legislature adopted a measure slowing satellite sales to Beijing by forcing the White House to transfer review powers over proposed deals from the pro-trade Commerce Department to the State Department.

Subsequently, Clinton, goaded by charges of technology theft, quashed the sale of a $450 million satellite to Beijing.

China is eager to join the World Trade Organization (WTO) and is chagrined that it has yet to gain admission. Prospects of winning Congressional support for an eventual WTO deal may have dimmed as a result of the latest accusations of nuclear espionage, political analysts say.

Congress would not have to approve China's WTO accession but would have to vote on granting Beijing permanent trading privileges as a WTO member. For the time being, legislators vote every year on whether to give Chinese goods tariff treatment equal to that granted most other countries.

U.S. trade and commerce officials are pressing their counterparts in Beijing to open Chinese markets further to U.S. goods and services - including in the sensitive area of ''cultural exports."

Last week, Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky told White House officials that both progress and obstacles remain ''significant,'' according to a spokesman.

No one expects a final deal to emerge during Zhu's visit but the issue is considered the least contentious one on the agenda. Beijing may be frustrated that WTO negotiations have advanced slowly with the United States as with the European Union, but its tone in talks has been tempered by its desire for admission, say trade analysts.

By contrast, China has voiced outrage over the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) air strikes in Yugoslavia. State-run media reportedly berate the ''illegality'' and ''brutality'' of the bombings, saying the West has ''raped'' the Balkan nation.

Beijing maintains that NATO's actions lack a valid international mandate because the alliance circumvented the U.N. Security Council - where China has veto power.

Additionally, according to most commentators here, Chinese officials fret that such measures could set a precedent for future interventions in Tibet or Xinjiang province, home to Muslims of Turkic descent.

If recent history is anything to go by, however, trade will trump politics.

During Chinese President Jiang Zemin's October 1997 visit to Washington, he and Clinton sparred publicly over human rights - with the U.S. leader accusing China of being ''on the wrong side of history'' for not abiding by the Universal Declaration on Human Rights.

Clinton nevertheless agreed to lift nuclear technology export sanctions imposed after the 1989 Tiananmen Square clampdown. For his part, Jiang agreed to buy airplanes from troubled U.S. manufacturer Boeing.

(Inter Press Service)

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