March 11, 1999	atimes.com

China Shades of McCarthy era as spy case deals new blow to U.S.-China ties By Jim Lobe WASHINGTON - Fifty years ago when the Soviet Union detonated its first atomic bomb, the explosion confirmed Moscow's emergence as the world's second superpower. The blast also sent the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) into the nation's top-secret nuclear-research laboratories on a hunt for Soviet spies - the opening act of the McCarthy era that persuaded Americans the Soviets constituted a grave threat that had to be ''contained,'' if not ''rolled back'' or destroyed. Now, half-a-century later, a new case of nuclear espionage - which apparently dates to the mid-1980's when Ronald Reagan was president - has dealt a series of body blows to President Bill Clinton's hopes of building a ''strategic partnership'' with Beijing. While no one is talking seriously yet about rolling back the Communist government in China, long-time advocates of ''containment'' against Beijing are on the offensive, as Sino-U.S. relations sail into very rough waters. The Clinton administration's five-year-old policy of ''comprehensive engagement'' has been battered in recent months by the arrests of and long prison sentences handed down to Chinese dissidents, a record bilateral trade deficit and new tensions over Taiwan. But the spy case, which hit the headlines in the United States this week, resulted in the firing of a Taiwan-born scientist at the country's most sensitive weapons-research facility. It has fuelled demands for a major reassessment of China relations and the adoption of a containment policy. The scientist, identified by the media as Wen Ho Lee, is considered by the FBI to be the prime suspect in a three-year investigation to determine how China allegedly obtained U.S. secrets that enabled it to make a huge leap in its nuclear-weapons program. Specifically, China reportedly stole the plans for the most advanced miniature nuclear warhead, the W-88, around 1985 and has since built and tested its own model. The system - which U.S. officials say Beijing would normally have required at least a decade to develop on its own - is designed to have missiles carry multiple warheads that can be directed against a number of different targets. How Lee actually would have transferred these secrets remains unclear, according to officials who stress that, until they obtain more evidence, they cannot charge him with a crime. U.S. Energy Secretary Bill Richardson conceded Tuesday that it was theoretically possible that China could have developed the system on its own or with the help of Russian scientists. But most officials view the case as the most damaging of a number of thefts, reportedly contained in a still-secret Congressional report on Chinese espionage against the United States. The report is being held back pending an accord between the White House and the so-called Cox Committee, named after the California Republican Chairman, Rep. Chris Cox, on what information should remain classified. ''We don't know the extent of the damage from these thefts,'' Richardson said. ''They were serious; they are unconscionable. We're concerned that the Chinese are conducting espionage. We make no illusions about Chinese behaviour." The W-88 case is not the only one to have surfaced from the Cox Committee. Last month, it was disclosed that the Chinese had obtained key secrets from U.S. satellite manufacturers that had contracted with China to lift their payloads into space. Such collaboration resulted in significant improvements in Chinese missile-launching capabilities, according to published reports. Those disclosures resulted in an unprecedented decision by the administration to cancel the sale of a $450 million satellite to China and could presage similar cancellations in the future, according to U.S. officials. The new reports, however, are adding fuel to an effort by many Republicans and some Democrats to force Clinton to back off his fulsome embrace of a regime which, during his first election campaign in 1992, he denounced as the ''butchers of Beijing." They also come at a key moment in U.S.-Chinese relations. Chinese Prime Minister Zhu Rongji, a Washington favorite and possible successor to President Jiang Zemin, is due here next month in what the administration has been hoping would be an encouraging follow- up to Clinton's trip last year. U.S. and Chinese officials have worked hard to negotiate a trade deal that would permit Washington to sponsor Beijing's bid to join the World Trade Organization (WTO). Such a breakthrough, according to officials here, would mark a major U.S. achievement and help put bilateral ties back on track. But the same officials admit that a WTO agreement remains a long shot, particularly in light of China's recent economic problems which are likely to make it more resistent to the kind of liberalization that the United States wants and WTO membership requires. Failing such a breakthrough, Zhu's visit could very well be dominated by embarrassing and hostile questions on the alleged spying, as well as other contentious topics, including Chinese threats against Taiwan - another key issue that is gaining the media spotlight here. Beijing is concerned about Washington's plans to develop a theater missile defense (TMD) system that would be made available to both Japan and Taiwan. China considers Taiwan a renegade province that eventually must return to Beijing's control. A senior Chinese official last weekend said that the transfer of any U.S. military equipment to Taiwan that could defend it against missile attacks would ''certainly lead to serious consequences'' in U.S.-Chinese relations. The official, who was not identified, also told The Washington Post that such systems could embolden Taiwan to declare its independence. The TMD initiative, the recent satellite cancellation and new allegations about espionage, according to Chinese officials, demonstrate that forces favoring a containment strategy against Beijing are gaining the upper hand in U.S. policymaking circles. (Inter Press Service)

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