Central Asia/Russia


	June 4, 2002	atimes.com

Central Asia/Russia

Guerrilla forces regroup in Afghanistan
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - The grand council of Afghan leaders, (loya jirga), is scheduled to meet from June 10-15 in Kabul to thrash out a moderate Afghan government for the next 18 months that it is hoped will place the country on a permanent democratic path.

However, the stand-off between India and Pakistan has given some factions in Afghanistan opposed to this planned political route for Afghanistan the chance to regroup, using the Pakistan-Afghanistan border as their playing field.

Faced with close to 1 million Indian troops on its eastern borders, Pakistan has been forced to withdraw troops from its western borders, which will help pro-Taliban Pakistani tribals to dominate and neutralize pro-Pakistan government elements in the region and even further afield in Afghanistan.

The United States and its allies understand this threat, with Operation Buzzard the response. British Royal Marines are advancing toward the Pakistani border through heavily mined territory in southeast Afghanistan to seal off routes that could be used by al-Qaeda fighters trying to re-enter the country from Pakistan.

Of key concern to the allies are two major anti-US forces - former Taliban fighters and the Hezb-e-Islami led by former Afghan premier Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. Both are trying to regroup to establish themselves as factions strong enough to be reckoned with.

Although broken as an administrative and military force in Afghanistan, the Taliban still have strong support among the masses in eastern provinces such as Khost, Paktia, Hilmanda and Orguzan. But they lack any overall organizational structure. Key influential commanders whose fame goes back to the mujahideen days of the war against the Soviets in the 1980s, such as Maulana Jalaluddin Haqqani and Mulla Saifullah Mansoor, are holed up in different places with isolated forces.

And with the strong presence of US and allied forces in the country and with pro-US Afghans ruling in many provinces, there is little chance of the anti-US factions uniting at present. For this reason, former Taliban leader Mullah Omar is believed to have floated the idea of setting up a movement for the restoration of the Al Imaratul Islami Afghanistan - the Islamic Emirates of Afghanistan. Sources say that he has contacted Afghan tribal chiefs, commanders and Islamic scholars to remind them of the Afghan nation that fought against the Soviet Union to first drive them out of the country and then to establish Islamic rule.

However, after the Soviets left and the communist militia was routed, different Afghan factions forgot the real cause of their struggle and starting fighting each other. This led to the intervention of the Taliban in 1996, and they established peace and laid the foundation of the Imaratul Islami Afghanistan.

In his present initiative, though, Mullah Omar has canvassed many sectors of society, saying that it is not only the responsibility of the Taliban and the ulemas (clerics or scholars), but all segments of Afghan society to come forward and strive to restore the true Islamic system of life. There is no indication at this stage as to what response Mullah Omar has received.

Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, meanwhile, is playing cat and mouse with US forces as he tries to establish the glory days for himself and his Hezb-e-Islami, which was the leading force in Afghanistan in the anti-Soviet era with 125,000 armed soldiers.

After leaving Iran recently, where he had been in exile, Hekmatyar is thought to have traveled to Herat province in western Afghanistan. In Laghman he aimed to reorganize his faction, but the US intelligence network of Afghan spies heard of this, and he had to move on. He has been on the move ever since, including stops at Gardez and Kunhar, where the famous commander Kashmir Khan is the strongest commander. Most recently he has been seen in his home town of Gazni.

Hekmatyar is marginally more acceptable to many Afghan warlords than the Taliban, which is why Hekmatyar believes that he can revive the Hezb-e-Islami. Remnants of the Hezb are believed to have large caches of weapons hidden across the country, leftovers from the mujahideen days, including more than 100 Stinger anti-aircraft rockets.

And unlike the Taliban, the Hezb-e-Islami has a semblance of organization abroad, with supporters in Pakistan, Iran, Europe and even the US. Many of its die-hard leaders live in Peshawar in Pakistan on the Afghan border, in the tribal belt of Waziristan Agency. Sources say that once the Hezb-e-Islami succeeds in establishing its party structure at the level of pre-Taliban days, it will easily be able to reinforce its ranks with followers presently lying low abroad.

Sources say that the present stand-off along the India-Pakistan border will give relief to anti-US forces along Afghanistan's western border. They will be able to easily slip through the porous border into Pakistan, or come from Pakistan to target enemies in Afghanistan, before disappearing into the mountains, where the snow has already begun to melt.

But unlike the snow, the guerrilla war which the Taliban have promised since they were driven from power six months ago, but which to date they have been unable to start with any degree of success, will not melt away that easily.

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