Taliban take the battle to the south


	March 23, 2002	atimes.com

Central Asia/Russia

Taliban take the battle to the south
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - With the official Afghan New Year, or Nowruz, celebrations under way - the first time in five years following the ousting of the Taliban - Afghans would be expected to wish for a peaceful year ahead.

Unfortunately, they are likely to be disappointed, as there are strong indications that preparations are well advanced for a large confrontation with US and allied forces in southern Afghanistan in the Kandahar region.

According to informed sources, the battle will be fought by Taliban and al-Qaeda troops who have regrouped after escaping from the Gardez region in the east of the country, where they engaged US and allied forces for several weeks in what the Pentagon dubbed Operation Anaconda.

In the new engagement, which is likely to begin with guerrilla-type attacks on US and allied forces some time next week, the Taliban and al-Qaeda will receive widespread backing from local Afghan tribes.

The sources point to the strong presence of al-Qaeda and Taliban in many villages between Hilmund and Kandahar, the former stronghold of the Taliban regime. Their strategy seems to be similar to that adopted at Gardez, where they took up positions in caves and tunnels in mountainous and rugged terrain.

The mountains of Hilmund and Farah provinces provide will provide similar bases from which they can launch hit and run attacks on opposing troops, as well as on Kandahar airport and ammunition dumps. The US has significantly reduced its presence in Kandahar since Bagram airport nearer to Kabul became operative in recent weeks.

The Kandahar administration is probably the most vulnerable government in all of Afghanistan. Geographically, it is isolated as the neighboring Hilmund and Farah provinces are sparsely populated, and comprise huge tracts of barren and deserted land.

Strategically, there are no US military bases near Kandahar. The Pakistani airbases at Jacobad and Pasni could be used for air support, but logistical support on the ground would be difficult to arrange given local hostility.

The warlords in the region are widely anti-US, regardless of their particular political affiliation, with commanders belonging the Jamiat-i-Islami Afghanistan, the Ittehad Islami Afghanistan and the Hizb-i-Islami Afghanistan mainly pro-Taliban because of tribal links, and they will certainly not fight on the side of the US and its allies, as did some Afghan tribes in Operation Anaconda.

Meanwhile, the situation in Khost is becoming more confusing, although it appears that anti-US forces will take full advantage of the situation.

Infighting erupted in the province after the governor, Bacha Khan, moved to install his brother, Kamal Khan, as provincial police chief. However, the incumbent, Zakim Khan, refused to step down, and he received the backing of a powerful local warlord, Mustafa. In the absence of a negotiated solution, the factions began fighting, and in this environment a group of unknown fighters (most likely Taliban and al-Qaeda, though) engaged some US soldiers in a fierce fire fight before escaping.

At the same time, an important commander, Shezada Khan, was murdered, apparently at the instigation of Bacha Khan, the governor, who is loyal to Hamid Karzai, the leader of the interim government in Kabul.

Sources say that the US forces stationed in Khost have asked the rebel commander Mustafa and Zakim Khan to stay calm and obey the governor, but the developments have hardened attitudes and many warlords in Khost are likely to join the anti-US camp, covertly if not overtly.

((c)2002 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact ads@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)