A whole new war game in Afghanistan


	March 6, 2002	atimes.com

Central Asia/Russia

A whole new war game in Afghanistan
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - The past few days have seen surprise ambushes, raids and resistance by Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters in most parts of eastern Afghanistan, and in some areas in the south, with the United States and its allied troops sustaining more losses than they had expected.

Since Saturday, when heavy ground and air fighting began in eastern Afghanistan, US forces have encountered their fiercest opposition since stepping into the country toward the end of last year. Indeed, they helped push the Taliban from control of the country in less than two months, watching almost as bystanders as major towns fell with hardly a fight.

As previously reported in Asia Times Online, the reason for this was simple. The Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters were saving themselves for another day, and that day has now arrived.

After retreating from Kabul, Kandahar, Jalalabad and so on, the top Taliban leaders either fled to the border tribal areas of Pakistan or took refuge in remote and isolated areas in Afghanistan, while middle and lower-rank Taliban easily melted into the local population, from where many of them had come in the first place.

Some local commanders who had sided with the Taliban when they took power in 1996 returned to their pre-Taliban party disciplines, such as the Jamiat-i-Islami, the Ittehad-i-Islami and the Hizb-i-Islami. Here they were accepted without question, and they were given protection.

These Taliban remained in close contact with one another, waiting for the weather to warm up toward the end of March, at which time they had planned a major guerrilla campaign in the country.

In anticipation of this, United States forces, with the support of soldiers from a number of other countries as well as Afghans loyal to the administration of interim Prime Minister Hamid Karzai, began a major offensive in the rugged terrain around Gardez in Paktia province on suspected Taliban and al-Qaeda strongholds.

Their target in this operation, code-named Anaconda, was Mullah Saifur Rehman Mansoor and his troops, who had become active with sniping raids on US positions in the area. But unlike previously, this time around the US has found a very determined and deadly opponent.

Previously, the boundaries between the Taliban and their opponents were clearly defined. As a result, the Taliban were easy to point out and easy to target by US planes. But now there are no clear boundaries.

In addition to Saturday's clashes near Gardez, when US forces and the Taliban squared off, US-led forces also faced assaults in regions controlled by pro-Karzai forces.

According to Taliban sources, the Taliban have established small pockets across the country, particularly in eastern areas. And given the mountainous terrain, it is nearly impossible to locate bands of 10-15 people, even with the help of the local population. And passing helicopters or military convoys become easily targets in such conditions.

Apart from this guerrilla strategy, information this correspondent has acquired from Afghanistan appears to be in contrast to what is being projected in the US media.

According to sources, the war has now begun on all fronts in Paktia and Khost provinces, with US military installations coming under attack from the small bands of Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters that had been in hiding around them.

By Tuesday the US had reported seven of its soldiers killed and more than 40 wounded, although the figures could be higher. On Monday, the first US helicopter in the five-month-old war was shot down in Zarmat, a second was destroyed between Sata Kundao and Mata Chena (Khost), while two more helicopters were destroyed during a raid at Khost Airport. Taliban sources claim that about 160 US, Afghan and allied soldiers have killed in these incidents. Taliban and al-Qaeda fatalities are believed to run into hundreds.

Fierce fighting has erupted in Logar province adjacent to Kabul. Different group of fighters from the Taliban, the Hizb-i-Islami and other factions have banded together to take control of many areas. According to sources, US planes had to come to the rescue of the pro-Karzai administration in Logar, but the million-dollar question now is where to drop the bombs as it is impossible to tell who is friend and who is foe.

Similarly, the Taliban have taken positions in Orguzan and Himand provinces in the south, but the administration of Kandahar, previously the Taliban headquarters, is reluctant to take action against them because once the fighting begins in earnest in southern Afghanistan, pockets of resistance are likely to mushroom all over Kandahar and create havoc.

Sources in the Taliban say that the next fighting is likely to be in eastern Wardaz province, from where they will strive to take control of Kunhar from the pro-Karzai administration that is currently in place.

(Š2002 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact ads@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)